Rumors are swirling that the Los Angeles Lakers may be considering a player other than Lonzo Ball at No. 2 overall. That is a good thing, because the Lakers should not draft Lonzo Ball.
From the moment the Los Angeles Lakers were awarded the second pick in this year’s NBA Draft, their choice was all-but locked in. They would take local product and UCLA standout, Lonzo Ball, and bring back Showtime to L.A.
Ball overhauled the culture at a struggling UCLA, sharing the ball and generating a pass-first mentality from his teammates. The Bruins leapt into national contention, and Ball captured the national spotlight. His unique story – including a very unique father – was spread around to all those with an ear to listen.
A top-level L.A. prospect making a name for himself in L.A. sounds like the perfect fit for the Lakers to take. Add in the effusive praise Magic Johnson showed for Ball (the new Lakers’ President attended a number of UCLA games this past season) and head coach Luke Walton’s free-flowing system, and choosing Ball with the second pick was all but set in stone.
But recent days have brought rumors that the Lakers are not sold on Ball, and that they are considering other players such as Kentucky’s De’Aaron Fox or Kansas’ Josh Jackson. Whether the rumors are a smokescreen or a genuine reflection of a split in the new Los Angeles front office, the second pick no longer seems like a lock.
For all of the parties involved, this is a good development. The Los Angeles Lakers should not draft Lonzo Ball with the second overall pick. That would be a bad move for the Lakers, for Lonzo, and for the league as a whole.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7653VNKpqUo
Not worth the 2nd pick
First, Lonzo Ball is not a good enough prospect to be taken second overall in the NBA Draft – especially not in this strong draft class. While Ball’s passing vision deserves recognition for being truly special, he has major weaknesses that are unacceptable.
The most glaring weakness is his defense, and it’s as glaring as weaknesses get. Despite boasting good positional size (6-6 is great for a point guard), Ball was a virtual turnstile on defense. He died on screens, seemed allergic to a deep defensive stance, and his slight frame was easy to move around.
The less discussed weakness is his lack of a strong handle. While his passing is tremendous, and no one is suggesting he cannot dribble the ball, Ball lacks the top-end ability to keep his dribble tight and beat defenders.
The best point guard prospects – and honestly even the mid-tier prospects – are wizard dribblers. The ball leaps from hand to court to hand exactly how they want it to. This allows them to keep the defense off-balance as to where they are heading, and allows them to get there quickly once they commit to a direction.
Ball doesn’t possess that ability. While he has a strong crossover move that allows him to get open jumpers, he hasn’t translated that into secondary moves, nor into a hard-line drive to the rim. Not only does this limit him against tough guard defenders, but he doesn’t beat bigger guys who switch onto him either. As an NBA point guard, if you cannot attack a switch you won’t be able to generate high-level offense.
Outside of the physical limitations (and there are more, from the hitch in his shot to a strong tendency to go left), Ball’s competitive fire is also in question. In the NCAA tournament, he was destroyed by Kentucky guard De’Aaron Fox on both ends. After the game, he responded not with dejection or fire but with a cool declaration for the NBA Draft.
If Ball cannot get up for the big moments, he may not have that special “next gear” that true stars break out when the games truly matter. He has to want to win enough, and have that drive to continue improving his game. If Ball enjoys basketball but isn’t driven to truly be one of the best, he won’t become one of the best. That’s a subjective evaluation of a small sample size, but it throws up major red flags.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-5g5zz9O6LI
Not a good fit on the Lakers
Last season, the Los Angeles Lakers were ranked 30th in total defense, and their roster bears little upside to improve that ranking. While Brandon Ingram projects to improve as a defender, guards D’Angelo Russell and Jordan Clarkson will almost certainly be minus defenders for their career.
Ball would likely be in the same boat as a defender, and whatever offensive gifts he brings could be evened out by an inability to guard at the other end. NBA teams will put him through pick-and-rolls galore, and if neither he nor Russell can defend the Lakers will always rank near the bottom of the league in defense. You cannot win a title without having a good defense.
The way to cover up for a poor defensive backcourt would be with elite defenders at every frontcourt position. But Ball’s best skill – his elite passing – is best unlocked in a modern, floor-spacing offense. Finding forwards and bigs that can shoot and defend at the highest level is the greatest task of the league right now – and if the Lakers take Ball they cannot use the pick on a player who can do both well.
Both Josh Jackson and Jonathan Isaac are projected to become great defenders at the next level, with the versatility to defend multiple positions and provide weakside shot-blocking – especially Isaac. They also offer offensive upside, with Jackson bringing strong playmaking for his position to the table and Isaac the prospect of three-point shooting.
If the Lakers keep the second pick and draft Ball, they are sealing themselves into a future of making every other move to try and cover up for the defensive holes in the backcourt. If they take a player such as Jackson with the pick, suddenly they have a top-level forward pairing and the potential to grow into a solid two-way team.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KvXjn-SIeTQ
Not a good fit for Lonzo
LaVar Ball, the father of Lonzo Ball and two other talented basketball players, has been vocal about his intent for his sons to play for Los Angeles. On one level, it would certainly be a dream come true for Ball to play for his hometown Lakers, and try to bring relevance back to the purple-and-gold. Staying in L.A. would also allow him to be close to his mother amidst her health concerns.
But if Lonzo Ball wants to become a star NBA player, his best shot is to do that outside of Los Angeles. For starters, he needs to put distance between himself and his father. The lack of professionalism and respect – let alone tact – shown by LaVar has become a negative for Lonzo. That doesn’t mean he cannot overcome the noise if he stays in L.A., but having miles of distance can allow him to grow into his own person.
There is also less pressure to succeed in another city. Philadelphia has Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons, and would almost certainly take Ball at 3 if he falls to them. If another team trades with the Lakers to take Ball at 2, he could land elsewhere in the country. In whatever city he comes to, he won’t be looked at as the Los Angeles native come to save the franchise.
Ball needs a situation where he isn’t expected to be “the guy” and instead can focus on maximizing his strengths. Whether that’s playing off-ball to a point forward such as Ben Simmons, or bringing the ball up for a team with dominant players at other positions – Minnesota, for example – a lower-pressure environment is the perfect fit for Ball, especially at this point in his career.
Not good for the league
The NBA wants the Los Angeles Lakers to be relevant again, and if they draft Lonzo Ball all that does it continue a news cycle dominated by LaVar Ball. Lonzo is a good player and will ultimately help any team he lands on, but as noted above his limitations would be particularly damaging with this Lakers roster.
Lonzo staying in L.A. also increases the platform for LaVar Ball. A loud father figure in L.A. whose son plays in Philly will have less of the spotlight then if he is attending every Lakers home game. The distance between LaVar and Lonzo may be in direct correlation with how much airtime LaVar gets.
Finally, the league wants draft mystery. They leverage the unknown into making the NBA Draft one of the highlights of the basketball calendar, and if the Lakers take someone other than Ball that will only heighten interest. It may seem minor, but in the long-run it helps establish the brand of the draft.
Conclusion
Lonzo Ball is a special talent, and if the Los Angeles Lakers select him with the second overall pick, they shouldn’t expect a bust on the level of Anthony Bennett or Jonny Flynn. But the UCLA point guard is not the best fit there from a variety of angles.
The Los Angeles Lakers may be best served fielding trade offers for the pick. They want to win now, and taking a 19-year-old freshman point guard is not the way to do that. Whether they acquire a veteran such as Paul George, or amass better options through trade, they have more versatility by moving the pick.
One potential trade suitor is the Sacramento Kings, who have been rumored to be shopping for a top-3 pick. Flipping the second pick for selections five and 10 could allow the Lakers to pair Jackson or Jonathan Isaac with Zach Collins, a two-way center prospect.
Regardless of how they use the pick, there are a number of options better than taking Lonzo Ball. Knowing that is the case, and that taking Ball would be a mistake, we can rest assured the Lakers will now make the wrong decision and draft Lonzo Ball. Enjoy the fireworks.
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