The MVP Candidate who Isn’t

With James Harden exploding over the past 9 games, NBA heads around the Association have understandably readjusted their MVP rankings. For many, Giannis still sits atop the leaderboard, followed by some order of Joel Embiid, Kawhi Leonard, Steph Curry, LeBron James and maybe even Paul George and Anthony Davis.

So this article will be dedicated to Mr. Harden, no? No. I am here today to present to you someone who should be getting MVP love, but is not due to his lack of team success. Someone who, of course, should not be talked around as a serious potential winner, but someone who deserves to at least be in the conversation. Someone who goes by the moniker Uncle Drew.

Disclaimer: I am not arguing that Kyrie Irving should win the MVP award. Rather, I just want to show some love to a guy who has been playing the best basketball of his career and is not getting enough shine because of his underperforming team.

…but in case the Celtics ever get on track

…you’ll have some ammo to hit your friends with when defending #KyrieforMVP

Where should we begin? Perhaps a quick overview of the stats, which will give you a glimpse of the player Kyrie is becoming.

The Numbers

Since getting traded to Boston, Kyrie has been a different type of player. Well, maybe “different” is the wrong word. Instead, Irving has been able to showcase his entire skill set in ways his Cleveland tenure disallowed him from doing. The numbers tell the story.

Irving is flirting with the 50/40/90 club and I predict his field goal percentage will rise as the Cs find their groove and Gordon Hayward works his way back to form. Plus, Kyrie will only play his way into a better rhythm as the season progresses.

Take note of the rise in rebounding and assist numbers (more on that later.) Kyrie is doing more on the court and hitting those benchmark non-scoring numbers that the best guards in the league try to reach.

Some other numbers you need to know: Irving has tied his career high with a PER of 25.0. His True Shooting Percentage is 59.5 percent, trailing his watermark of 61.0 percent which he hit last season. He also owns an Offensive Rating (ORtg) of 118, once again tying the previous high he set last year.

See? That wasn’t so bad. Now you have a brief background on Uncle Drew and his statistics. Let’s dive deeper, however. What exactly is Kyrie doing to garner some mermors of MVP talks?

Not just a scorer

The biggest and most important change to Irving’s game has been his ability to distribute to others. Kyrie has always had a talent for finding open teammates, maneuvering screens and quarterbacking a game. It is in Boston, however, where this ability has had a spotlight shone on it, and it has truly taken him to another level.

Over his entire career, Irving has 37 games of 10 or more assists, despite playing 474 career contests. This means that only 7 percent of Irving’s games have resulted in 10 or more dimes. This season tells a much different career narrative.

Only 33 games into the season and Kyrie has hit 10 or more assists 7 times. In others words, 21 percent of his games this year have hit double-digit assist numbers. As a Celtic, Irving is displaying the facilitator that has always lived within him. Don’t believe me? Check out his Assist Percentage numbers throughout his career. Specifically, pay attention to how the numbers change with and without LeBron as a teammate and priority playmaker.

How is Irving displaying his distributing talents? Let’s get some eyes on it with gametime footage. While Irving has always excelled at driving to the hoop and finding an open man, he has shown that he has some true point man in him. In the play below, Irving dimes Hayward from 30 plus feet away.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jbCpr46X9sU?start=57&w=560&h=315

This is not a difficult play to make, but it reveal that Irving wants to play a pure brand of basketball, one that maximizes his talent as a scorer but also advocates for perfect execution. Taking Dillon Brooks off of the dribble could have been easy for Irving, but he’s more interested in completing this uncomplicated play and getting his buddy Hayward back on track.

I thought I was overstating his change in mindset, and therefore distribution development. A longer peak into his advance passing numbers reaffirmed my suspicion, however. Among all guards (not strictly point guards) who have started at least 10 games, Irving is 14th in potential assists and 13th in assist points created. Those numbers place him ahead of traditional point guard Ricky Rubio, as well as pick and roll maestro Luka Doncic.

Despite this change in play, Irving can still drive and dish with the best of them, which leads to our next topic.

Okay, he’s very much still a scorer (Driving Edition)

Let’s tie up a loose end. Before I delineate Irving’s well-noted at-rim finishing, I need to mention how his driving has opened up other assist opportunities.

In this next clip, watch Irving draw all 5 Memphis defenders to the paint. He feigns using a screen and drives hard towards the rim, purposely dragging to defenders over to the baseline. An easy kickout to Marcus Morris (who is having a career year) leads to a triple.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jbCpr46X9sU?start=13&w=560&h=315

This was just an appetizer, though. The main course comes when Irving continues his progression to the hoop. This time, four defenders are drawn to the paint and Irving goes up like he is going to attempt a tricky layup. In mid-air he fires a crafty, athletic bounce pass to the open Jayson Tatum, who buries the 3-pointer.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jbCpr46X9sU?start=24&w=560&h=315

All of this is made possible because of Irving’s notorious driving and finishing ability. Irving is posting the second highest Points Percentage of his career on drives, landing at 65.5 percent. That percentage is higher than MVP hopefuls Harden, Curry, Leonard, James, Embiid and George, and trails Giannis by only 0.3 percentage points. Woah.

What makes him so special in these situations? Irving’s change-of-pace usage is incredible. In the segment below, he goes from full speed around half court to a slightly slower sprint. This allows him to crossover some defenders, hit Clint Capela with a behind the back and gather his steps and momentum for a left handed layup. There are merely a handful of players in the league that can pull this off, folks.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OeqN56M0y0Y?start=210&w=560&h=315

Do yourself a favor and watch some breakdowns of Kyrie’s at-rim finishing. Or maybe start a clever Twitter account dedicated to the guy, called @rimIrving. But what can he do away from the hoop?

Okay, he’s very much still a scorer (Shooting Edition)

How can we relate Irving’s 2018-19 shooting numbers to the MVP race? I thought you would never ask. So, without further ado…

Kyrie has a better pull-up shooting percentage on field goals (44.9 percent) than Giannis, which was to be expected, but also beats Harden, James, Curry, Leonard and George, by a wide margin as well.

His comparison with Curry stands out. Curry takes 7.5 pull-up field goals per game, Kyrie takes 7.4. Curry hits only 40.7 percent of these shots while Irving makes 44.9 percent. The difference is stark enough to be noticeable, and worthy of discussion. What do these jumpers look like in action? Stick around for the next subheading to find out. Until then, let’s discuss some other shooting stats.

His catch and shoot numbers are impressive as well. Irving drills 43.2 percent of his 3.6 catch and shoot triple attempts per game. This is essential to note, especially when considering Irving spends 21 percent of his time at shooting guard, according to Basketball-Reference.com.

This percentage is higher than all of his MVP competitors except Curry. He also beats snipers like Dame Lillard, Danny Green, Klay Thompson, Bradley Beal and Devin Booker. We’ve come to known Irving for the way in which he nails these jumpers, coming off of screens with, if we’re lucky,  his jersey untucked, and twisting into a gorgeous 3-pointer, like the one featured below.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OeqN56M0y0Y?start=57&w=560&h=315

Anyone can hit jumpers and pull-ups though, right? Well, not everyone. What’s more, not everyone can hit them in clutch time, where Kyrie has been dominating all year long and surpassing other MVP candidates.

Clutch time

Irving’s clutch time history is one we all know. After all, he hit the biggest shot in Cleveland Cavalier history as the Cavs went on to beat what was arguably the greatest team of all time in the NBA Finals. He does this on the regular though, not just the playoffs.

And he is doing it in ways you may not have thought.

Before I dig into the clutch shooting, Irving’s decision making during clutch time has to be addressed. Despite being a lethal shooter, Irving has maintained his discipline and has been making the easy and best pass during this time. His Assist Percentage during clutch time is 47.2 percent, which trails only Tony Snell and Pat Connaughton, who have played in the clutch a combined 3 times.

When he isn’t helping others, Irving can do it on is own, too. In fact, 71 percent of his 3-pointers in clutch time are unassisted, according to NBA.com. Additionally, he ranks 3rd in the league among consistently starting guards with 4.5 points during clutch time. With this same qualifier, Irving is second in the league for clutch time ORtg at 133. Simply put, the dude gets it done when it matters most.

Christmas Day may serve as a reminder. Watch Irving drill back-to-back triples against the rival Philadelphia 76ers. Note how he did so, too, as Kyrie canned one trey off a handoff and one unassisted off of the dribble. Watch the clip until you have seen two consecutive offensive possessions for the Cs.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TO3XY4UG7SY?start=452&w=560&h=315

Where do we go from here?

Those were the type of plays that MVPs make during MVP seasons. Besides hitting statistical benchmarks, an MVP narrative must involve clutch scoring and big time numbers during big time games. Kyrie meets those expectations, but falls shorts in the category of team success.

Will the Celtics finish the year as the 5th best team in the East, however? Conventional wisdom says no. They are 1.5 games behind the Sixers. The Pacers should fall back down to Earth a little, their .667 winning percentage is likely unsustainable. The Cs are 11-4 over their last 15, despite some indefensible losses to Detroit and Phoenix.

The past couple of games by Hayward haven’t produced numbers that would suggest he is back to his preinjury form, but the eye test has shown he is gaining confidence. Coach Brad Stevens also trusted Hayward during closing time against Memphis, and it paid off. In fact, we may look back at the Steven’s decision to close with Hayward during that game as a turning point in the former All-Star’s season. His revival will only make the team better.

At the end of the day, the Celtics are only 4.0 games back of first in the East. Their turnaround has to continue and get even better, but finishing top two in their conference is doable. Perhaps they finish top three at the worst.

Now, back to Irving. Will he surpass Giannis, Kawhi, and Embiid in MVP talks. No. But he will enter the discussion. His level of play is too high not too. Although they are frustrating to watch, the Celtics should finish the year strong and Kyrie will be right there leading the way. Do not be surprised if he finished top five in MVP voting for the first time in his career.

@Mattesposito_