The Washington Post NFL writer Neil Greenberg has published his 2024 NFL Divisional Round expert picks and predictions for the 2023 football season. Three playoff games of the 2023 NFL season are featured here.
Check out The Washington Post writer’s 2024 NFL Divisional Round picks, predictions, and best bets below.
- Texans QB C.J. Stroud Finishes Without An Interception (+130)
- Bucs QB Baker Mayfield To Pass For Over 244.5 Yards (-120)
- Chiefs Money Line At +120 Odds Or Better
The Washington Post’s 2024 NFL Divisional Expert Picks and Predictions
The Washington Post NFL analyst Neil Greenberg has released his expert picks and predictions for three NFL Divisional Round matchups of the 2023 season. Greenberg went 5-1 with his picks during Wild Card Weekend.
First off, the Houston Texans vs. Baltimore Ravens at 4:30 p.m. ET this Saturday.
Next, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Detroit Lions at 3 p.m. ET on Sunday. Finally, the Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills at 6:30 p.m. ET on Sunday night.
For NFL betting advice, check out our NFL betting guide.
Texans QB C.J. Stroud Finishes Without An Interception (+130)
Greenberg believes Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud will end this Saturday’s road game against the Baltimore Ravens with zero interceptions.
“The Ravens will probably win this one, but divisional-round home favorites of eight or more points haven’t been great against the spread, covering just 11 of 28 times since 2002 and missing the cover by an average of 3.8 points,” he wrote.
“We can take it a step further and try to figure out what a Texans performance would look like if they were to lose narrowly or even win. Stroud has been in three games in which Houston lost by four points or fewer; he averaged 231 passing yards in those matchups.
“That average is a bit misleading because he threw for 304, 249 and 140 yards in those games. His passing prop this week is set at or around 249½ yards, about the same as the middle value of those performances, leaving us with little wiggle room.
“The interceptions prop is more alluring. It’s a small sample size, but Stroud did not throw an interception in those three narrow losses and only had one turnover-worthy throw, according to Pro Football Focus. He has played in 10 wins, including last week’s, and avoided an interception in seven of them.”
Other 2024 NFL Divisional Round expert picks are on the main page.
Bucs QB Baker Mayfield To Pass For Over 244.5 Yards (-120)
The Washington Post NFL analyst also has Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield finishing with at least 245 passing yards on the road against the Detroit Lions this Sunday.
“It took weeks for Mayfield to get comfortable with the Buccaneers’ offense, but now he seems to be in a groove, as evidenced by his 337-yard, three-touchdown performance against the Eagles,” Greenberg wrote.
“There are a few factors in favor of him having a big day against the Lions, too. Detroit’s pass defense ranks 16th, per Schatz’s defense-adjusted value over average metric, while Pro Football Focus rates the Lions’ pass coverage as the fourth worst in the league.
“Plus, it’s possible that the favored Lions jump out to an early lead, forcing the Bucs to play catch-up and giving Mayfield more opportunities to throw the ball.”
Chiefs Money Line At +120 Odds Or Better
For his third pick, Greenberg has the Kansas City Chiefs winning on the road at Highmark Stadium over the Buffalo Bills this Sunday night. “The Bills’ injury report is alarmingly long,” he added.
“Coach Sean McDermott on Tuesday gave a lengthy list of players who were day-to-day going into the week, including safety Taylor Rapp (calf), wide receiver Gabe Davis (knee), cornerback Rasul Douglas (knee), linebacker Tyrel Dodson (shoulder), cornerback Christian Benford (knee), linebacker Terrel Bernard (ankle), cornerback Taron Johnson (concussion protocol), linebacker Baylon Spector (back) and punter Sam Martin (hamstring).
“Rapp, Davis, Douglas and Dodson missed Monday’s win over the Steelers. At full strength, the Bills have the league’s 12th-best defense, per Schatz’s defense-adjusted value over average metric, but these injuries will only make it harder to defend against the Chiefs, who rolled up 409 yards and 26 points in the bitter cold against the Dolphins.”
For all of The Washington Post NFL Divisional Round picks, go to the site. More NFL Divisional Round expert picks are on the main page. Welcome bonuses are available right now for the best NFL betting apps.
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