Washington’s Quarterback Controversy is Not A Controversy

The Washington Commanders have rebounded greatly after a slow start. They have won three out of their last four games, and they are tied for the last wild card spot in the NFC. One major difference has been Taylor Heinicke, who has started those games with Carson Wentz injured. People may think history is repeating itself with Carson Wentz, but it may be time to pause the hype.

Taylor Heinicke’s Hot Streak

Heinicke is familiar with the current position he is in. In 2021, he started 15 games last season in place of Ryan Fitzpatrick, who suffered a season-ending injury in Week One. Washington went 7-8 in his starts, en route to a 7-10 record. Heinicke threw for 20 touchdowns, good to tie for 17th in the league which is very good for a backup quarterback. However, the caveat was that he also threw 15 interceptions, also tied for the second-worst in football.

This year, Heinicke has five touchdowns to four interceptions. But the biggest benefit of Heinicke comes from his rapport with Terry McLaurin. McLaurin is averaging nine targets in the four games that Heinicke has started, including a season-high 11 Monday night in Philadelphia. In contrast, with Wentz, McLaurin was seeing an average of 6.1 targets per game. As a result, McLaurin has been a bigger playmaker during this stretch. Most notably in the win at Indianapolis, the 42-yard catch he had over Stephon Gilmore that got the ball down to the Colts’ one-yard line. There was another play against Green Bay where Heinicke placed the throw perfectly near the pylon where only McLaurin could catch it. A play that resulted in a go-ahead touchdown for the Washington Commanders.

However, a big concern with Heinicke is that he puts the ball in danger quite often. Commanders radio personality Grant Paulsen reported a stat on Twitter about Heinicke’s three wins, he has nine turnover-worthy throws. So far, Taylor Heinicke has thrown an interception in all four of his starts. And a common theme in these plays is that he does not put enough strength in the passes. Against Green Bay, he tried throwing an out to J.D. McKissic who was matched up with a linebacker. However, DeVondre Campbell was able to make a play on the ball and return the interception for a touchdown. In the last two games, he has also had deep passes in the fourth quarter that float in the air too long, both resulting in turnovers as well.

A lot has been made about the #Commanders going 4-1 in Taylor Heinicke’s last five starts.

Some important context: in those wins, Heinicke’s completed 60% of passes, 202 yards per game, 3 TDs, 3 INTs, 5 big time throws and 9 turnover worthy plays. pic.twitter.com/Kt60b16dg6

— Grant Paulsen (@granthpaulsen) November 15, 2022

The Case for Carson Wentz

Wentz started the first six games for the Washington Commanders before breaking his finger against Chicago. In those games, he threw 10 touchdowns to six interceptions and a 62.1% completion percentage. The biggest advantage for Wentz is that the Commanders can have a vertical passing attack. The Commanders are talented offensively with McLaurin, Curtis Samuel, and Jahan Dotson in the receiving corps. Antonio Gibson is also a receiving threat out of the backfield. For Wentz, five of his ten touchdowns have been from 20+ yards out. The Commanders’ most productive passing games this season have been with Wentz as the starter, namely against Jacksonville, Detroit, and Tennessee.

However, things are not perfect with Wentz either, hence the 2-4 record before Heinicke came in. A common theme in Wentz’s starts has been the number of sacks that he takes. Wentz averaged 2.72 seconds to throw in comparison to 2.91 for Heinicke. The Week Three game against Philadelphia was the worst example. Wentz was sacked nine times against the Eagles, a game where the offense was nonexistent until the fourth quarter.  The running game was almost nonexistent, as the team gained under 100 yards rushing through four of Wentz’s six starts. However, Wentz himself has never been the most accurate passer, which leads to some of his interceptions. The biggest example came in the Week Four loss to the Dallas Cowboys. Wentz was trying to connect with Jahan Dotson during the two-minute drill on a fly route. However, the ball was thrown too far inside to where Dotson had no chance to make a play on the ball. As a result, Trevon Diggs caught the pass with very little resistance.

Who Should the Commanders Start?

The job is Heinicke’s while Wentz is sidelined. However, the job should go to Wentz. With Heinicke, the Commanders know what they have with him. He is a well-liked personality in the locker room, he is athletic, and right now the team is winning with him. But a team can only go so far with a quarterback who is both turnover-prone and lacks a strong arm. There almost seems to be an element of divine intervention around Taylor Heinicke.

Carson Wentz has been an NFL starter for seven seasons now, and the book is out on him as well. He has great arm talent but seems to be snake-bitten by ugly turnovers, judging from his Philadelphia and Indianapolis years. Wentz has also had his ability as a leader called into question in the past. However, six games are not enough for a quarterback to prove himself in a new system. Wentz would come back to a team that is gaining momentum with half of the season finished. And with his ceiling and supporting cast, plus a defense that has improved during this stretch, the Washington Commanders could be dangerous.