Why hanging on to Sammy at QB makes sense for Eagles…

By the EYE test alone, Sam Bradford was playing better each week as his 2015 comeback season progressed. Cut him some slack for the 43 dropped passes by Eagles receivers (average number of “drops” for the league is 30) and his overall stats line would look a lot better.  I would not call Sammy “elite”…but he was and is better than average.

We could do a lot worse than open up the 2016 season with Sammy at QB. What veteran who’s available out there and would also be a good fit for Doug Pederson’s offense would be better?

Sammy wants and deserves some guaranteed financial security to come back here. Who can fault him for that?

Many fans say the way to go here is to put the Franchise Tag on Sammy for 2016 and then negotiate a longer-term deal behind closed doors prior to the season opener.

The league minimum to put the tag on a quarterback was $16,912 back in 2014. But the value has increased and should come in closer to $20 million or higher in 2016.

I like that 2014 number as probably a realistic representation of what Sam Bradford is truly worth in annual compensation now. I’d have no problem offering Sammy a 3-year deal at $17 milz per year with $25 million of that money guaranteed. You could make it really cap-friendly too by combining a low base salary with a “deferred” (cap-wise) signing bonus.

But the problem is Sammy’s agent would call that offer too cheap.

Maybe it is too cheap considering the Eagles should have somewhere between $20 and $30 million of cap space in 2016—and it could go even higher based upon some more possible player releases (Ryans? Peters? Sanchez?)

The thing about having $30 million or more in free cap space is you can tweak out some generous long-term contracts with guys like Sammy—and then move the cap hits for those contracts forward into a future season.

So theoretically you could offer Sammy a 5-year deal at Joe Flacco money and terms—and Flacco’s contract with the Ravens is likely to be the one Sammy’s agent is using as a yardstick. It is also a contract with legal clauses which allow the team to get out of the deal after two or three years without serious cap damage.

Here’s a quick study of the Flacco contract—

Here are some notes on the contract from the Dawgs By Nature fansite:

• Flacco’s signing bonus was worth $29 million, and his $1 million base salary for 2013 was considered guaranteed as well. Flacco earned all of that money right away, but the Ravens, for cap purposes, got to spread it out over the first five years of the deal. Therefore, you can say that Flacco’s deal includes $30 million that is definitely guaranteed.
• You should notice that Flacco has $22 million in the “miscellaneous bonus” category. While that money is not 100% guaranteed, it is basically the same thing as being 100% guaranteed if the team exercises its options to retain the QB. In 2014, a $15 million option bonus kicked in for Flacco. In 2015, an additional $7 million option bonus kicked in for Flacco.

  Like his signing bonus, the Ravens spread the amounts over the final five years of the deal. That money is guaranteed for injury only. For example, if Flacco suffers an injury and the Ravens cut him, Flacco will make all $22 million right away. If they cut him next offseason and he is not injured, though, he would not get any of that $22 million.

• The Associated Press stated that Flacco’s deal included $52 million guaranteed. The Associated Press also stated that Flacco was set to pocket $51 million over the first two years of his deal. How did they reach that amount? In 2013, Flacco got his $29 million signing bonus and his $1 million base salary, a total of $30 million. In 2014, Flacco got his $15 million option bonus plus his $6 million base salary, a total of $21 million. Adding those together ($30 million + $21 million) makes $51 million. However, the amounts that count against the cap for Baltimore in both of those years was much smaller.
• Flacco’s low cap hit in 2013 meant that the Ravens had some flexibility in 2014. His numbers against the cap escalated in the following two years at a shade over $14 million per year, but it’s not a terribly crippling number. For that reason, the contract was structured in a way in which Flacco got a nice payday, but Baltimore could retain at least some of their other key free agents over the next couple of years.
• Starting in 2016, Flacco’s cap hit shoots up to $28+ million.  The team can choose to re-structure Flacco’s deal going forward and Flacco will probably agree to restructure. He will have all of the leverage, however. He can force Baltimore to extend his contract even further, shifting some of the money he was due to make in those future years, but it really only prolongs the inevitable. If the Ravens decide to cut Flacco, the cap number would still be relatively high in dead money, except in 2018.

You can say Sam Bradford is just as good as Joe Flacco in terms of potential value to their franchises. Sammy’s agent will be arguing that point. But what I like about the Flacco contract model is how it allows a team to pay and retain a good starting QB with many reasonable options to get out of the deal if the player doesn’t pan out. Besides, you’re expecting great things for many years out of a franchise QB—so even if you end up taking the big dead money hit at the end of the deal, it essentially means your franchise QB did a lot of winning for you over a number of good seasons.

So pay Sammy now…and draft or acquire a young understudy to prepare to take over just in case.  Yeah, that’s the ticket…