Every morning, we compile the links of the day and dump them here… highlighting the big storyline. Because there’s nothing quite as satisfying as a good morning dump.
4. Bounces sometimes just go the wrong way
The Celtics had cut the game to six with just about five minutes left. The Celtics got a great defensive stop when Jayson Tatum helped and blocked Khris Middleton, but the momentum of the ball took it just off Kemba Walker’s fingertips and towards the baseline. Walker dove to save it, but it went right to Antetokounmpo for a lay in.
Games that end this close have to count as wins for one team or another. But statistically speaking, it’s a good idea to look at them as ties, and for exactly the reason John mentions above. A game that ends this close is subject to random noise as well as aspects which can be controlled by the players and coaching staff. In the realm of statistical analysis, the results are close enough that you have to be careful about the conclusions you draw.
If you win by five, you shouldn’t pat yourself on the back and insist that you’ve won convincingly, and if you lose by five, odds are you did a lot of things right.
The C’s were also playing without Jaylen Brown, which is a huge caveat when you consider that the Bucks were at full strength.
6. Milwaukee’s bench is pretty good
Milwaukee got 19 points from Donte DiVincenzo, who hit four of his six 3-pointers. They also go 13 from George Hill, who is the NBA’s best 3-point shooter right now. 48 of Milwaukee’s points were scored by their second unit.
7. Boston’s bench is not
They scored 23 points. Kanter had 9 to lead the second unit, but he had zero offensive rebounds. Kanter’s productivity drops dramatically if he’s not grabbing offensive rebounds because his entire offensive game becomes post-ups.
Boston’s bench was short-staffed last night because Jaylen Brown was out with an injured thumb.
For the season, Smart’s averaging about 31 minutes a game, so if you estimate roughly the same output for 31 minutes instead of the 36 he tallied last night, you get 21 points, which, combined with the rest of the bench scoring 23 points extrapolates to a 48-44 bench advantage for Milwaukee. That’s not something I’m going to be too concerned about. Of course, here too you have to be careful about what you extrapolate.
Jaylen also brings a unique set of abilities to the task of defending Giannis, and I think that, if nothing else changes, Giannis would have a hard time matching last night’s gaudy performance with Jaylen Brown assigned to him for part of the game.
Page 2: Where Hayward is a bellwether
5. There might be an issue with Gordon Hayward
Hayward’s first three quarters were not great. His fourth was pretty good, scoring seven points on 1-for-2 shooting and four free throws. Hayward’s performance was a running conversation on social media, and suddenly factions are lining up in the pro-versus-anti-Hayward camps.
It’s hard to say why he has been so hot and cold from the field. One could probably make a fair amount of money betting on his shooting percentages from game to game because he seems to be alternating great shooting nights with poor ones. But why?
My theory is that he could benefit from being more of the focal point of the offense, and the Celtics should move him to the bench to start the game. If he plays the same amount of minutes, then it might not be a bad idea to let him be more of the focal point with second units. At least at that point he can shoot his way into a rhythm.
We’re still looking at John’s extended recap from last night, and I’m afraid that, after disagreeing with Ryan Bernardoni last week, I’m disagreeing with another one of the elder statesmen of the Celtics’ online community.
Here is my extremely simple-minded take on Gordon Hayward:
Gordon looks good when the offense looks good.
He’s the canary in the coal mine (fun fact: English coal miners used to use jars of fireflies as lanterns because of the near continuous risk of explosions from methane leaks. Actually, now that I look at that, that’s not all that fun. It’s kind of sad, really. Being a coal miner in England sucked).
Anyway, back to my metaphor.
As with the ‘Hayward might be stunting the development of the Jays’ take that surfaced last week, I feel that any approach to the C’s recent struggles that involves doing something with Hayward is, in essence, treating the symptom, not the disease.
If the C’s motion offense is clicking and they are, in coach-speak, letting the ball find the open man, Hayward is going to look like his best self. However, when players try to create in isolation, when the ball sticks, or guys don’t see all their options before passing, Hayward is going to look passive, disengaged, etc.
And then the pitchforks come out, and in the Twitterverse, where everyone is trying to craft the perfect topper, things get out of hand in a hurry.
But the truth of the matter is that you can tell a lot about the overall health of the Celtics’ offense by watching Gordon Hayward. If he looks good, all’s right with the world.
Moving Hayward to the bench has the same flaw as the notion of trading him: It frees up the C’s young wings to play basketball the wrong way. It effectively says, ‘we give up, we can’t get these guys to play the right way consistently so we might as well cut our losses.’
Actions like trading Hayward, or the admittedly less drastic measure of making him the sixth man, are usually framed as being in the long-term best interests of the team.
I would posit that teaching Jaylen & Jayson how to play basketball in such a way as gives them the best chance of winning, regardless of personal stats, is in the long-term best interests of the team.
The phrase ‘experience is the best teacher’ has a rarely quoted second half: “Experience is the best teacher for the fool who will know no other.”
If Jaylen and Jayson won’t take Brad’s word for it, then the only other way of teaching them is by letting them learn the hard way.
The rest of the links
MassLive: Boston Celtics rely heavily on Kemba Walker, best five players: ‘We need those five to be awfully good’ | Boston Celtics comeback falls short in 128-123 loss to Milwaukee Bucks
Boston Herald: Celtics tumble to Bucks in Milwaukee
NBC Sports: Forsberg: What to make of these skidding Celtics | Blakely’s Takeaways: Kemba can’t do it all by himself | Celtics-Bucks Overreactions: C’s can’t hang with East’s best | Stevens: Walker’s performance only reason C’s had chance vs Bucks
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