The Memphis Grizzlies chose to stay the course this offseason, adding Chandler Parsons to an aging but proven core. Can they reach their lofty goals? Or will they fall back into the ranks of the lottery?
“The quest stands upon the edge of a knife. Stray but a little and it will fail, to the ruin of all.”
That famous line was from The Fellowship of the Ring, the first installment in The Lord of the Rings. Lady Galadriel utters it as she evaluates the condition of the fellowship, a group of adventurers committed to taking a dangerous weapon – the “One Ring” – to the only place it could be destroyed, a volcano deep in enemy territory.
In the end, heroic efforts and divine providence (plus the Eagles) see the fellowship to the end of their quest, but if anything had gone differently things would have fallen apart. One cannot help but use this same statement to express the risk-and-reward season that awaits the Memphis Grizzlies.
If everything goes right for Memphis this season, they can at long last reach the end of their quest. If anything doesn’t, then this team is doomed for a terrible finish.
The Memphis Grizzlies entered the offseason with one of two paths. They could tear things down, letting Mike Conley walk and tanking to keep their first-round pick in an exceptionally strong draft. The other path was to retool, signing veteran talent to take advantage of Marc Gasol’s prime. Grizzlies’ GM Chris Wallace chose door number two.
After last season was derailed by injuries, the Grizzlies hung onto their first-round pick by the skin of their teeth, making the playoffs by two games and pushing back their debt to the Denver Nuggets until next season. Bringing back much of the same injury-plagued group, Memphis used its cap space to sign forward Chandler Parsons to a four-year max offer. Mike Conley promptly re-signed for his max.
For the average NBA team, injuries are a constant possibility, waiting to strike at any moment. Memphis has proven that injuries are more of a necessity, an inevitability. The amount of talent on this roster, balanced with the high possibility of serious injury, gives this team a plethora of outcomes.
Will the Grizzlies stay healthy and reach their goals? Or will their medical staff get more run than their starting five? To continue the metaphor, does the fellowship reach its goal, or get waylaid along the path?
The Fellowship Dies: Everyone Gets Injured – 30 percent
Memphis enters next year with the complete opposite of an iron man squad. No team lost more VORP (Value over replacement players) than the Grizzlies, and only New Orleans lost more games to injury.
Mike Conley missed 26 games last year, while Marc Gasol is on the wrong side of 30 and missed 30 games of his own. Tony Allen, Zach Randolph, and Vince Carter combined to miss another 54 contests.
Memphis responded by adding a talented player to its core – but one with injury problems of his own. Chandler Parsons has missed 37 games over the last two seasons, and played injured through countless more.
Better injury luck is a possibility, but it’s not a given. There is a very real chance enough of this core gets injured that the Grizzlies’ paper-thin bench cannot prop the team up. Last year Memphis showed a lot of grit hanging on to their playoff berth, but this season injuries could drag them down sooner and more precipitously.
The Breaking of the Fellowship: Ownership Tears Things Down – 15 percent
Memphis owes its 2017 first-round pick to the Denver Nuggets, a pick that is top-five protected. If the Grizzlies get a month or two into the season and see an improved Western Conference passing them by – due to injury, aging, or other factors – then management might need to make a tough decision.
The Grizzlies as currently constructed are built to sustain moderate success, but their upside is limited. They are also working with a rapidly closing window as Randolph, Allen, and Gasol all leave 30 in the rearview mirror.
With the majority of the league seeking to be average or better this year – the tanking of the past few seasons has been replaced by the optimism of spent money – Memphis could embrace a one-season drop to the bottom. Being mediocre and losing the eighth pick in the draft would only perpetuate their lack of young talent.
Bottoming out and drafting a top-tier player in the top 5, then racing back to the top? That may be a pipe dream, but it’s better than being both bad and without a draft pick. If Memphis has a slow start, they need to consider it. Teams would trade for Memphis’ veterans to prepare for the stretch run.
The Balrog Attacks: Swept in First Round by Golden State – 35 percent
This is the most likely outcome, that Memphis puts together a season that ends the same as last year. Whether it’s Golden State or San Antonio, the Grizzlies probably don’t have the chops to beat either one.
If things come together, the Grizzlies should make the playoffs. But a moderate amount of injuries and a strengthened Western Conference could leave Memphis near the bottom of the bracket – certain doom for any team standing in the path of the Warriors.
Memphis does have versatility now with Parsons able to man the 4, but their lack of wing depth leaves them unable to guard all of the weapons the Warriors will trot out, to say nothing of how their offense would be strangled by the sheer amount of length Golden State now boasts.
While missing the playoffs would sting for the Grizzlies, making them may hurt all the more.
Overcome At the Foot of Mount Doom: Deep Playoff Run – 18 percent
Memphis decided to stay relevant and add Parsons knowing that a title was probably not a realistic goal. But Memphis has been deep in the playoffs multiple times with their Grit-N-Grind core, and there is a best-case scenario where this happens again.
Marc Gasol is one of the best centers in the NBA, a two-way force with range, passing ability, and rim protection. As the centerpiece of an offense, only DeMarcus Cousins currently has the upside Gasol brings. With Parsons now in the fold, Memphis can trot out three or four strong offensive options.
While the Warriors got better this offseason, teams such as Oklahoma City and San Antonio took a step backwards. That could leave an opening for Memphis to win a series or two and again shock the world. They might fall short of the ultimate goal, but a berth in the Western Conference Finals would completely validate their offseason.
The Ring is Destroyed: Grizzlies Bring A Title to Memphis – two percent
The quest to destroy the ring ultimately ends in triumph, with “The One Ring” melting in the fires of Mt. Doom. The evil Sauron is defeated, the heroes rejoice, and peace comes to the land.
Such a peace has not been felt in Memphis, TN before – the exaltation of a title. While such an outcome is unlikely, no one expected a four-foot hobbit with hairy feet to defeat all of the forces of evil. So there’s a chance.
For things to go exactly right for the Grizzlies, health is the biggest factor. Mike Conley, Tony Allen, Chandler Parsons, Zach Randolph, and Marc Gasol all need to be in perfect health when the postseason rolls around.
Secondly, Memphis needs their bench to step up. Brandon Wright missed 90 percent of the season last year, but they signed him to be a high-energy backup to Gasol. He needs to stay healthy and step up. Young players such as Wade Baldwin and Deyonta Davis need to develop quickly and make contributions, and JaMychal Green needs to build on a decent campaign from last year.
Finally, the Grizzlies need some good old-fashioned luck. Whether that’s Russell Westbrook upsetting the Warriors with a 40-15-12 average stat line, or Steph Curry again slipping on another man’s back sweat, or LeBron James deciding midseason he next wants to revitalize the Cleveland Browns and leaves to play tight end (Editor’s Note: Bron is BIG, but let’s keep him at wide receiver). Even fully healthy, Memphis does not have the roster to beat a rolling Golden State or Cleveland squad.
In the end, Memphis’ season has more possibilities than almost anyone else. The Warriors are winning a ton of games. The Lakers aren’t. The Timberwolves are going to be much better, it’s just a matter of how much.
But Memphis could be the worst team in the league next season. Or they could, somehow, hoist the Larry O’Brien trophy. While the most likely outcomes trend towards the bottom, the talent is here to make a run. If things don’t come together, the Grizzlies will see themselves a regular fixture on The Lottery Mafia. If things do come together, all will hail the Grit N’ Grind.
Add The Sports Daily to your Google News Feed!
