There will be no sneaking about it; the Denver Nuggets are roaring to a top-five seed this year…
… and no offense to the Celtics, Sixers, Lakers, Bucks and Jazz, but they may be the highest upside team in the entire NBA.
The Denver frontcourt is loaded. From Joffrey Lauvergne and Jusuf Nurkic to Danilo Gallinari, Wilson Chandler, and Darell Arthur, to my personal favorite, Nikola Jokic, they’ve got 4s and 5s custom-built for pace and space. Jokic, in particular, looks like he could be the centerpiece to build around that the Nuggets have so desperately needed since Melo’s departure. The guy can ball. And analytics suggest he will rival “The Big Three” of Karl-Anthony Towns, Kristaps Porzingis and Anthony Davis for the top young big man in the NBA in 2016.
Jokic is a little slow and could position himself better on the block. He needs to add some muscle, work on his drives from the elbow and be recognized as the second-best player from last year’s draft (despite being taken 41st overall). The 41st pick is an advanced-stats monster that fits perfectly into today’s NBA. He’s the kind of player that wins rings and keeps Sam Hinkie up at night. And he’s got the game to power the Nuggets into the playoffs next year.
Jokic is an extremely high-IQ big man that plays very good defense, passes like Marc Gasol, hits the glass hard on both sides of the court (averages four offensive rebounds per game), and has beautiful touch both around the rim and away from it. Boasting splits of 51/33/81, he’s proven adept at knocking down jumpers from the elbow and from beyond the arc. He passes particularly well out of the pick and roll, uses basketball intellect to shoot quick passes to teammates before the defense can adjust and averaged nearly four assists per 36 minutes last year. The rest of that per 36 stat line? 16.5 points, 11.6 rebounds, 1.6 steals, and one block.
Wow. Makes a lot more sense why Jokic, NOT Karl Anthony-Towns, was the first NBA rookie of all time to lead all centers in BPM (4.8). That 4.8 ranked higher than that of analytic favorites Paul George, Jimmy Butler and Al Horford. Per Basketball Reference Data, the rookie also placed fifth in assist percentage among players 6-10+ trailing only the Gasol brothers, Blake Griffin, and the Greek Freak. Essentially what big men of their type do is turn low efficiency mid-range shots into dunks and 3s, given the efficiency of big men that can pass. Marc Gasol, despite being surrounded by atrocious shooters ranked 27th in the league in three-point percentage, kept the Grizzlies at the league average offensive rating. These talents that Nikola Jokic showcased in his rookie season signal huge upside for a Nuggets team that added tons of shooting over the offseason.
See, there’s more than just a troupe of big men in Denver. Denver’s roster boasts skilled players at each position. How deep is Denver? The Celtics may be the only team in the league with more depth at the guard position. Oh shit.
The Nuggets have multiple talented backcourt options, with a couple that, in this writer’s opinion, could turn into something really special. Namely, Jamal Murray and Emmanuel Mudiay. It’s really saying something when Gary Harris gets passed over, despite surpassing (fairly lofty) draft expectations and Malik Beasley, a skilled first-rounder, gets left out of the conversation. But this is almost a no-brainer. Denver’s duo of Murray and Mudiay could make a serious argument for best young backcourt in the NBA. And I don’t think anyone can argue against Murray/Mudiay’s upside being unparalleled by any young guard pairing in the league.
Outside of Murray and Beasley’s sharpshooting, the Nuggets will welcome back Wilson Chandler and Danilo Gallinari from the IR. Chandler, an offensive sparkplug who blankets 2s, 3s, and 4s on the other side of the floor, averaged 36 percent from beyond the arc in the last three seasons. Gallinari averaged 19.5 points, 5.3 rebounds and 2.5 assists on .410/.364/.868 shooting (in 53 games last year). And the team resigned Darrell Arthur on a three-year deal, confirming their commitment to build around Jokic. With these pieces and natural progression of his own development, Denver’s young big man could lead his team to a top-10 offense in 2016.
These pillars of talent surrounding the arc and the key are more than enough to make Denver a 45-win team next year, a record that just might garner the eighth seed in this year’s Western Conference. And if Mudiay makes Dennis Schroeder-like strides of improvement in his second season, I could see the Nuggets sniffing 50 wins.
If you’re asking yourself: “What about the other guy? The one everyone knows on Denver. The guy who dominated in the Olympics?” then you noticed! I left one name out of this article. The Dreadlocked Draconian. The Manimal himself! Kenneth Fariedddddd. Why haven’t I mentioned Faried? Because Jokic and Mudiay are the future of this team. And Mr. Manimal isn’t very compatible with either of them. Per NBA.com during the 618 minutes Jokic and Faried shared the floor, the Nuggets played evenly against other teams. On the flip side, when Darrell Arthur joined Jokic under the hoop, their lineup outscored opponents by a whopping eight points per game!
Faried clashes with Denver’s young floor general, Emmanuel Mudiay, as well. Unfortunately, when your guard is still developing a shot, you need at least a mid-range jumper from the other players on the court. Denver could easily roll out those kinds of lineups with Jokic at the 5, Chandler and Gallinari at the two forward spots, and Murray partnering with Mudiay in the backcourt. But this team doesn’t have a sufficient backup distributor to take Mudiay off the court so Faried can get his minutes.
Evidently, Denver is thinking that as well, as they have been reported as the second-most eager team, after the Celtics, to get a trade done before the season opener. Agreeing with Marc Stein, Zach Lowe said,
(I’m hearing) ‘Denver is trying to get off [Kenneth] Faried’, which I think they are, but if they have to move a decent wing to get off Faried and get something good in return (sic). They’ve got a lot of wings now; young ones, mid-career ones, take your pick.
Denver needs to get Faried off the books, and they need to do it in one of two ways. Either stay patient, trade him to the Pelicans to partner with Anthony Davis, and collect draft picks in return, or swing for the fences and put together a package for Paul Millsap, or better yet… the man only Mike Malone could coach, DeMarcus “Boogie” Cousins. With the picks, you get ammo for a deal like one of the latter. With Cousins or Millsap, I believe the Nuggets would be a legitimate title contender. They’d be a better version of the Celtics, and have enough depth to put together the kind of package that would net such a big fish while keeping their starters intact. If left up to me, Gary Harris, Malik Beasley, Faried, Nurkic, and an unprotected first rounder would be on the table for either of them. Fortunately for the Nuggets, they don’t have to rely on this type of godfather. If Jokic makes much more progress, he won’t need Mudiay or Cousins to lead this team to (50 wins and) the upper echelons of the Western Conference.
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