By Sean Kennedy (@PhillyFastBreak)
Then, the Sixers traveled back to Philadelphia for the home opener Saturday night against the Heat. Nothing too remarkable happened this time around, as the lack of depth really looked to affect the team’s legs on the back-to-back, especially in the 4th quarter as Miami outscored Philly by double digits to pull away and win 114-96. Chris Bosh is back to looking like a legitimate star as the centerpiece of a team once again; the Heat should still easily make the playoffs in the East as long as Dwyane Wade stays reasonably healthy.
Enough about the past, what’s happening tonight? I’ll be in attendance as the Sixers play host to the 3-0 Houston Rockets. Houston has come storming out of the gate, sitting 4th in the NBA in both offensive rating (not surprising) and defensive rating (surprising). Let’s first look at the offense, where the Daryl Morey mantra of all threes and free throws is in full effect once again. The Rockets are hoisting the 2nd highest number of threes in the league and making them at an outstanding 42% clip. Trevor Ariza has gone from getting wide open shots off John Wall drives to wide open shots from the spacing the Rockets offense provides, hitting over 3 threes per game at a 56% clip. Jason Terry has looked like a viable bench player and Kostas Papanikolaou, a rookie from Greece, is also providing added floor spacing. The Rockets might be even more dangerous offensively than last season, even without Chandler Parsons.
Of course, Houston is also 2nd in the NBA in free throws attempted rate. Everyone knows about hack-a-Dwight and he’s attempting nearly 10 per game but making only 44%. The real benefit for the team though, is James Harden getting an absurd 12 attempts per game and making 11. Harden’s ability to manufacture such efficient offense is why he’s one of the top players in the league despite his warts on the defensive end.
The defensive side of the ball is where I’m really curious to watch the Rockets tonight. They’ve played a very easy schedule to start the year, with their wins coming against the Lakers, Jazz, and Celtics. I want to know if small sample size and poor competition is what’s driving this improvement on the defensive end (I know, the Sixers won’t be a step-up in the competition category). Still, opponents are shooting the worst effective field goal against in the league against Houston. It’s only three games, but if you’re doing something better defensively than a Tom Thibodeau squad (the Bulls are 2nd in that category), you’re doing something right. A big part is likely a spry Howard being fully healthy and the impact he can have defensively when that’s the case. Howard has been particularly effective defending within 10 feet, with a dFG% in that range of -11.5% (meaning opponents shoot 11.5% worse than the normally do when Howard is defending them).
While I always try to provide impartial analysis of upcoming matchups, I do try to find ways the Sixers might be able to scrape out victories from time to time. No such way exists tonight, barring Tony Wroten charging the rim so fast that he literally goes supernova. During large swaths of time, the Sixers will be forced to cover Dwight Howard with Brandon Davies and Malcolm Thomas. With both these teams running basically the same principles, but the Rockets actually having players who can, well, shoot the ball, Houston should win in a rout.
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