Weekly Scout’s Take: January 7th Edition

Oh how the coaching carousel turns…

Take a look above, you’re looking at the hottest face in NFL Coaching discussions right now.    Harbaugh seems to be the biggest prize that franchises like Carolina, San Francisco, and Miami are all chasing after.  We’ll look at who has the best chance and why.

And the Playoffs are officially set.  We’ll follow up last week’s NFC Teams breakdown with the AFC Teams breakdown on how to defeat each of the final 6 in the conference.  

Plus we move on from the Screamers and Sleepers this week.  Now, we go all in on the Playoff matchups and give our predictions week by week.  Lets jump into our first Post-Season edition of the Weekly Scouts Take!

It seems like this wild, turbulent season started just yesterday and yet we are already into the Post-Season now.  

It’s rather interesting, there were almost as many coaches fired during the regular season as there have been so far in this post-season.  So for the teams out there with a vacancy atop their coaching trees, who do you fill it with?  

Well for starters, everyone’s chasing after the Stanford saint, Jim Harbaugh.  He rebuilt a program that was a 1-win team just a few years back, and recently dominated a seasoned Virginia Tech team known for being in the mix of the top ranked teams year in and year out.  He is a great motivator and has a thorough understanding of how to develop quarterbacks.

(See possible #1 overall pick QB Andrew Luck for an example.)

The big teams chasing after Harbaugh right now have been San Francisco, Miami, and potentially Denver.  I’m sure you always have a ghost team that is quietly trying to make moves without word getting out to the media, but these have been the primary names that have surfaced.  

So who fits the best?  

Well, for starters, Harbaugh is going to command a healthy price tag.  With being in demand and coming off such a solid win in the Orange Bowl, his stock value is sky high currently.  Let’s look at each team individually to see what potentially can pan out.

Miami Dolphins – It’s really sad that Miami is this heavy in the mix and they’ve yet to fire Tony Sparano.  As I heard a talk show caller on ESPN’s “Mike & Mike” say, “Sparano is like a lone christmas ornament just dangling in the wind on last year’s Christmas tree.”   They’ve been openly conducting a search for another coach, but haven’t fired Sparano in the event they aren’t able to find a suitable replacement.  So what can Harbaugh bring to Miami?  His name would certainly attract some glamour from a very ritzy town to bring some people back into the stands.  He’s a great developer of QB’s, so the question would remain:  Will he stick with Chad Henne?  Henne, like Harbaugh, is a Michigan alum which might leave him in some good favors with Harbaugh.  The Dolphins have the beginnings of a solid passing offense with WR Brandon Marshall providing a true deep threat.  Of course, Harbaugh would have to uproot his entire family and “bring his talents down to South Beach” as LeBron so politely put it.  The only issue though, is if he’s looking at making a big splash early, wouldn’t it make sense to pick a weaker conference?  The Dolphins face both the Jets and Patriots twice a year, so he would be walking into an uphill battle immediately.  Although it will be tough, I think you’ll see Miami be one of the the last teams involved in chasing Coach Harbaugh.  

San Francisco 49ers – I personally think this would be the best fit overall for Harbaugh.  He is already in the Northwest area and mildly local to where the Niners are.  The NFC West is the worst division in football and the 49ers have all the talent to turn around within a year and be a contender.  The one place they’re lacking the most?  Quarterback.  Who better than a guy who’s had his ear to the college scene for the past couple years to bring some decent talent in and be able to mold them to a true leader for this offense?  This is a proud franchise that has suffered some tough seasons and hasn’t really had much to clamor on about since the departure of Steve Young.  The issue I see is that Jed York might not be willing to pay the price to bring Harbaugh in.  He’s right now looking in the range of 7-8 million a season to coach, and rumor has it that Miami is already prepared to offer it to him.  If the 49ers can become assertive in their chase after him, I believe they can land him.  It has all the spelling of a great opportunity to be a dominant team in their division for the next few years at least but the San Francisco brass will need to be aggressive in getting him, because they have stiff competition in Miami.

Denver Broncos – I think the Broncos are the long shot of the group to get him.  The AFC West, much like the NFC West, has some pretty poor teams grouping in their division and would be a good opportunity to have some early success.  With fellow Stanford alum John Elway taking over as a team executive, I think you’ll see them try to lean on the fact of the relationship between Harbaugh’s current school and John’s relationship to them.  However, the biggest glaring problem that stands here is #15. If you take the job in Denver, you are accepting that Tebow will be your QB for the franchise.  With his average-at-best mechanics and fullback-esque scrambling ability, I don’t know that Harbaugh would want to commit to a project as big as Tebow.  Josh McDaniels was a great QB coach, having worked with guys like Matt Cassel and Tom Brady and getting more than proven results out of those guys, but this was a stretch of a project on his part.  Couple in the fact that owner Pat Bowlen and GM Brian Xanders are cutting costs left and right due to prior coaching contracts (Can you believe they’re still paying Shanahan’s remainder salary too?), I’m not confident that they would want to take the plunge on someone like Harbaugh.  I think you’ll see Denver look for a highly touted assistant coach looking to prove himself and would be willing to work for a lower salary than most coaches on the market.

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Following up from our last week’s column, we went over the 7 possible NFC teams and how to hand each of them a loss.  With Seattle essentially throwing a wrench in my Playoff team descriptions, I’ll make an agreement with all the Seattle readers out there:  I know that a large amount of the Seattle fanbase wished they would have choked the game away against St Louis to get a better draft pick.  So for the fans out there that are still believers, i’ll dedicate a whole section of my column strictly to the Seattle Seahawks if they are able to pull off the upset of the decade and beat the New Orleans Saints.  I’m one of those people who doesn’t think Seattle will be in this game by half-time, so we’ll see if they belong or not.  To be continued…

Let’s look at the 6 AFC Teams in the playoffs and what it’s going to take to send each of these teams home with an early loss.

New England Patriots – We’re starting right off with the best.  Tom Brady is having a season to remember right now.  His record of over 219 straight completions without an interception is completely mind blowing to me.  They play sound offense.  They’ve mastered the art of “Small Ball”, where they will destroy you underneath.  They play Two-tight end sets constantly and do it so well, most teams don’t know if they’re running the ball or going out for a pass until it’s too late.  Defensively, they’ve locked down this young group of defenders to play efficient, hard hitting Bill Belichick defense.  This team is built and playing like they’re not stopping until there is a championship in their hands.  

So how do you beat a team that doesn’t turn the ball over at all and plays solid defense?

Great question.  Like killing a snake, you have to go after the head.  

This team revolves, runs through, and is orchestrated by Tom Brady.  One thing that Tom does well is navigate himself through the pocket when pressure comes at him from all angles, except for one.  No one has been successful in bringing pressure right up the center at him this season.  Think back to last year’s Playoff game against Baltimore.  The reason the Ravens were so successful against Brady was because of Haloti Ngata.  This space filling monster of a DT can push double teams right into Brady’s face.  When you bring pressure up the front at him, it takes his immediate ability away to step up and it can force him to make throws without setting his feet.  Brady can be rattled, it just takes a team with a heavy front pressure.  The two teams I see being a big problem for them are Baltimore and Pittsburgh due to what they can bring at the line of scrimmage.  If you can force Brady to stay further back from the line and make quicker throws, you can take this offense out of the game.  Defensively, Bill Belichick game-plans like no other coach out there.  Many of his defensive game-plans involve taking your best weapon away from you and making you beat them without it.  So, attack his defense the same way.  Double teaming NT Vince Wilfork and pushing gaps away from him will force them to respect the run game.  Not only does this keep Brady on the bench, it will wear this team down.  Playing the possession game and tiring this defense out is the best tactic a team can take to knock New England out of it early.

Pittsburgh Steelers – This Steelers’ offense has been much more efficient as of late, with RB Rashard Mendenhall and WR Mike Wallace leading the way on both sides of the ball.  Defensively, this is a unit that’s known for being the toughest bunch in the league to run against and can send a blitz at you from any angle on the field.  So if you have to play this team, how do you make life hard for them?

First thing I’d be doing is studying the film session against the New York Jets obsessively.  The Jets racked up over 100 yards rushing against this tough-as-nails defense.  They were able to attack the interior of this defense.  When Aaron Smith went down, that was such a huge loss that most people didn’t know about.  Rumor has it that he could be returning for the Playoffs, but what condition is he going to be in when he is back and playing?  If you can isolate the gaps and start chipping away inside, you can lure Polamalu in which would be the ultimate goal.  He’s the backfield coach and he’s a terror when he’s in the game.  You have to take him out of that backfield or isolate him away from the play to have a chance.  

Another tip:  Be aware of where Harrison is at all times.  This team brings pressure better than 90% of the teams in the league.  Harrison comes off the edge with great speed so he needs to be pointed out at all times where he is if you want to have your QB upright.  Offensively, it’s almost impossible to sack Big Ben.  His size makes him extremely hard to bring down.  Not to mention, he can keep a play alive with his legs.  So how do you beat him?  Watch him run.  He runs similar to Vick, where that ball stays out unguarded.  You probably won’t be able to sack him much, but you can get that ball knocked free if you can get close.  The offensive line isn’t exactly the league’s best, so sending an extra guy through the inside or someone off the corner to at least push Ben around can be enough to disrupt the play.  Along with the attention to Ben, you have to dedicate 2 people to Mike Wallace at all times.  This guy is probably the fastest person in the league.  He runs a sub 4.3 and if he catches the ball, he’s gone.  Take him away immediately and let them try and beat you without him.  Heinz Ward has become more of a possession receiver than a deep threat so it’s a matter of who will you let beat you.  I’d take my chances on attacking the ball at all times.  Mendenhall has been known to cough it up and you can strip Ben a little easier than normal.  I think the Steelers are a bigger threat because they’re more diverse than the Patriots on how they can beat you, but they have more weaknesses than the Patriots.

Indianapolis Colts – Peyton Manning.  What else can you say about the Colts team this season?  Defensively, they’ve been really off their game.  Offensively, they’ve lost so many weapons and yet still managed to finish out with a division win. So what’s it going to take to beat the Colts?  Well, they’re going to be tested very heavily this weekend.  

Peyton’s least effective area on the field is the bench.  This defense I believe is very suspect and will be the weakness of what gets them eliminated.  They have two great edge rushers in Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis, but I’ve seen on more than one occasion, teams will block them up field and they will be caught in situations where they’re “over pursuing” a player.  You can hit this team right in the center of their defense.  They have gotten better against the run but I don’t believe they’re on the level of some other contenders in the Playoffs currently.  Offensively, there isn’t a big solution here.  Don’t let Peyton get a read on the defense.  If he can get an understanding on what you’re lining up as, he’ll pick you apart.  The best formula that has worked for teams this season against Peyton is just to play solid, sound defense.  Peyton will give you an opportunity or two during a game.  It’s not often, but it will come.  He’s still not 100% on the same page with some of these younger guys in this offense.  Jacob Tamme and him have been off point more than a couple times, which led to a few interceptions in two losses by the Colts earlier this season.  If you keep everything in front of you, play your receivers tight, and kill any chance of a run game that the Colts might try to attempt, you can put them away early this post season.

Kansas City Chiefs – The Cinderella of the AFC.  Led by the NFL’s best rushing attack, this team loves to run it down your throat early and often.  Their method of winning:  Keep the opponents on the sideline.  It worked for the most part, but they’ve also had one of the easiest schedules in the NFL.  I believe their running numbers are slightly inflated thanks to the lack of competition that they’ve had to face throughout the regular season.  With the development of Matt Cassel, WR Dwayne Bowe has developed into one of the top deep threats in the NFL.  Defensively, this group is good, but not great.  They aren’t a show stopping defense, they just play smart and don’t make many mistakes.  

If I were an opposing coach, i’d attack this team in a couple different faccets.  This team’s bread and butter is their run game, so i’d make it my solemn goal to make sure they don’t run anywhere.  Isolate Dwayne Bowe and force Cassel to beat you without the run game and Bowe.  if this team gets far enough behind, they’ll have no choice but to abandon the run and start spreading the ball out.  This is where you make your opportunities.  Send pressure from every angle to try and rattle Cassel’s psyche.  He’s still a young minded QB who has only had this season with a solid offensive mind behind him in Charlie Weis.  I don’t think that he’d be able to adjust quick enough to stop a corner blitz or a speed LB off the outside.  They have a daunting task against a very aggressive Baltimore front this weekend, so you’ll see what i’m referring to when Ray Lewis and Co. come to line up against the Chiefs offense.  

Defensively, they can send pressure in varied forms, but they don’t recover well from a missed blitz.  Their biggest threat in the defensive backfield is Brandon Flowers, so you would want to be wary of who they have him lined up against.  Their personnel grouping makes it hard to send pressure in waves due to not having a dominating LB presence, so you can get solid matchups with TEs and inside receivers.  Just wear this team down.  It won’t take a gifted strategy, but they will put up a fight for a little while.  You just have to take the fight out of them and force them out of their comfort zone.  This team doesn’t like to rely on the pass and play deep defense, so attack both.

Baltimore Ravens – Its amazing to me that with a 12-4 finish, yet they’re still a wild card.  Right now, i’m not sure if any team wants to face Baltimore.  They have the best NT in the game in Haloti Ngata, who puts pressure in every QB’s face early and often.  The defensive heart of this team is Ray Lewis, who still is racking tackles up left and right after 14 years in his career.  They have a monster of an edge rusher in Terrell Suggs, and the league leader in INTs in Ed Reed waiting in the back to take the ball away from you.  This team can beat you many different ways with many different people.  Sounds tough, doesn’t it?  Baltimore likes to bring you down to their game and make you play ugly ball.  They will run the ball at you from different angles with Ray Rice and when you think the run’s coming, they will sneak Play Action in there to catch you watching the line too much.  

So where do you get them to budge?  

Use their strengths against them.  They like to send pressure in waves.  Play the hot routes early and often.  When they send pressure, hit someone outside on a crossing route.  When they drop back, run against the ends. You’re not going to get past Ngata in the center, but you can force him to move side to side which will wear him down to double teams.  DEs and DT’s do so well because they’re always going forward.  It’s never in their best interest to have them on the defensive.  You won’t be able to get tons and tons of yards against this team, but they aren’t the shut down group that they were back in 2000.  They play more of a bend but don’t break defense which will keep it close, but as you saw in the Atlanta game, it’ll doom them as well.  

New York Jets – If you never watched a game at all with this team and just listened to the media or post game commentary, you’d swear they were the baddest defense on the planet.  Rex loves to talk, doesn’t he?  

When this team plays on the top of it’s game, they are a force to be reckoned with.  They can run the ball, throw the ball, threat to take it to the house on special teams, rack up sacks, and pick the ball off.  They have talent at every single level of this team.  The only level that they have unproven talent at is QB, so I’d suggest starting there.  

Their offensive linemen are some huge guys, but they’re not the quickest.  When Miami came into the new Meadowlands in the last few weeks of the season, the RT had a hard time securing the edge which opened up inside gaps for pressure to come in.  When on the offensive, this line can push any defense around, which is the reason why they’re so good at running the ball.  They need to rely on the run to be able to effectively win in the playoffs.  if the game is put on Sanchez’s shoulders, the whole plan can fall apart.  Sanchez will make bad decisions and has been known to struggle in reading defenses at the line of scrimmage.  Mix your looks up often with this guy.  Keep him guessing where its coming from.  Don’t give him much time to get the ball out of his hands; make him have to think on the fly.  He can be coaxed into turning the ball over and this is where you can win the game.

Defensively, this is a sound unit that relies on heavy pressure and solid pass defense to keep them in the game.  Similar to the Baltimore defense, it’s a slow methodical process of baiting them into the blitz and then catching them on quick routes.  The Jets have two great corners in Cromartie and Revis, which can cause problems on both sides of the field.  If you had to pick your poison between these two, go after Cromartie.  He’s a gambler.  He will attack the ball but he’s also been known to blow coverage often on risks which have led to touchdowns.  Watch the Chicago/NYJ game from 2 weeks ago and you’ll see what I’m referring to.  They targeted him alot due to the fact they felt that Cutler could put the ball out of his reach and give their receivers a chance to make a deep play.  

They will be a tough out.  If you can’t slow down their run game, it’ll be a very long day against this team.  

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Well, here we go.  Playoffs are here, the scene is set.  We’re going to review each game this week giving you the best insight on who is going to win and why.  Let’s kick off the first weekend of the playoffs hopefully with a 4 out of 4!

New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks (Saturday, 4:30 PM)

Seattle made history, but probably not in the way most would like to be remembered.  By effectively face-planting into the Playoffs and going down in history as the first team to win their division with a losing record, it almost seems as close to a bye week as New Orleans could get.  Thanks to Seattle’s efforts, there has been quite a stir raised about possibly reseeding the playoffs on the basis of overall record.  

I know the fans in Seattle wished the team would have blown the game against St Louis so they could get a better draft pick, but Pete Carroll just can’t abandon his quest that early, now can he?  

When you look at the matchups here across the board, it really doesn’t favor Seattle all that well.  Even if they have Matt Hasselbeck in the lineup, New Orleans has enough defensive talent to ruin his day pretty effectively.  Seattle has been on the bottom 10 in most statistical categories across the board, and did we mention that these two teams played in week 11 and New Orleans beat them by a collective 15 points?  Don’t expect much to change here.

New Orleans’ offensive attack will be more than the Seattle secondary can handle in one collective shot.  Watch for Brees to essentially dominate the first half, and see heavy doses of Reggie Bush on screen passes and Julius Jones through the middle to close this game out.  I would think New Orleans will have this game on cruise control by the end of the 3rd quarter.  

New Orleans wins by a healthy margin and starts the Pete Carroll era in Seattle off with another face-plant in the Playoffs,  38-21

New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts (Saturday, 8:00 PM)

The rematch of the AFC Title game last year.  Peyton and his squad are not on the same level that they were last year.

Then again, the Jets aren’t either.  

Offensively, the Jets are a much improved unit from last year, still being a Run-First team, but having the ability to explode in the passing game.   Defensively, the Jets are still a sound unit, but they aren’t as dominant as they were last year.  While they’ve maintained a Top-5 defense, they still can be manipulated.  Losing S Jim Leonard was a huge blow to the Jets’ secondary, and you can’t give a guy like Peyton any advantages because he’ll exploit them.

On the flip side, the Jets have one of the league’s best run games.  A mammoth offensive line with RB Ladanian Tomlinson and Shonn Greene to attack a porous Colts’ run defense that has started getting its act together over the past couple games seems like a total mismatch.  The Jets also have some dangerous passing options in WR Santonio Holmes and TE Dustin Keller to give their run game some breathing room.  

The matchup will be the bookend tackles D’Brickishaw Ferguson and Damien Woody against DE’s Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney.  If they’re able to give QB Mark Sanchez some time to breathe in the pocket, I think the Jets offense can pick apart the Colts defense and play the clock management game to send the Colts home early.

However if the Jets defense makes any mistake, Peyton will know and make them pay.  His strength hands down is reading defenses and knowing what to call at the line of scrimmage.  This will be a techincal battle between two good teams.  Ultimately, i’m going to take the upset here and say that the Jets win this.  The weakest unit in this entire game is going to be between the Colts special teams and defense, two areas that I think the Jets can win the game in by playing effective, smart, keep-away football.  

Jets pull off the weekend upset and get revenge from last year’s early departure  27-22.

Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs (Sunday, 1:00 PM)

The Ravens got an absolute gift by not having to go to Indianapolis for another match against Peyton and company.  Instead, they head to Kansas City to face the suprisingly upstart Chiefs led by the best running attack in the league in Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones.

There’s a simple formula to beating the Chiefs which I outlined earlier and I believe you’ll see the Ravens implement this weekend:  Make Matt Cassel beat you.  

The Ravens primary objective will be to attack the line of scrimmage and immediately make the run game ineffective.  Once this is successfully done, the Ravens will take away Dwayne Bowe and force Cassel to be creative with his throws.  One thing you can not do is get creative and try to force things against the equalizer in the backfield, Ed Reed.  

Offensively, Baltimore will put this game on Ray Rice’s shoulders and let him run for everything he can get.  This defense is solid, but they aren’t on the level of Baltimore’s play.  Baltimore is too much of a threat to go over your head or run up the center against you, and I don’t believe Kansas City is built for a long, drawn out fight against the Ravens.  Their defensive line will be the tell tale sign if they can survive this match.  They will need to be able to get some push against the big men in front of Ray Rice and Joe Flacco, which I don’t believe they will.

The score will be closer than what the game will reflect, with Baltimore pulling off a solid road win 21-17.

Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles (Sunday, 4:30 PM)

This is going to be the game of the week.  No question at all.

The Eagles have looked rather stagnant the past few weeks, excluding the 8 minute miracle in New York.  Mike Vick has been looking similar to the Atlanta Mike Vick, who would scramble earlier than needed and made some errant throws more often than not.  However, you can’t discredit his entire body of work this season, and it wouldn’t surprise anyone to see him come back on Sunday and light up the scoreboards again.  He would be a lock for the league MVP if there wasn’t someone in New England shattering records.

Green Bay, on the other hand, looks to be getting hot at the right time.  Defensively, they played a really solid game against the Patriots, helping rookie Matt Flynn take the Packers to within one final drive of beating Tom Brady in Foxboro.  Aaron Rodgers is back in the swing of things, and after the Packers 45-17 whomping of the New York Giants and the hard fought grinder against the Bears, this Packers team looks ready to fight for anything they can.  

Both teams have high flying offenses capable of racking up the scoreboard.  Both have solid special teams play, with an edge going to DeSean Jackson on punt returns for the Eagles and David Akers having another great season.  On defense, the edge has to go to Green Bay for being able to bring pressure and quickly.  If you look at the Dom Capers unit that he’s put together, they can bring rushers from the outside, up the center, and can move the pocket against a weaker Eagles’ Offensive line.  

The difference makers in this game will come down to one of three defenders for Green Bay:  Charles Woodson, Tramon Williams, or Clay Matthews.  You’ll see one of these guys make a play that will swing the game into Green Bay’s favor.  I know the Eagles will test this team on every angle and “Shady” McCoy will make them run sideline to sideline, but Vick will make one mistake, and that will be all the difference.

Great game, lots of action, but in the end, Green Bay sends the Eagles home and ends the story-book script that has been rolling this season with Michael Vick,  31-28.