Significance of the 40 Yard Dash at the NFL Combine

It’s the drill every combine follower considers first. It’s the drill that prospects endlessly practice and perfect  on. It’s the drill that most can relate to and understand a key factor in NFL Draft Prospects: Speed.

Speed is very important for a college player transitioning to the NFL game. While for offensive linemen and defensive tackles it’s not important, for just about every other position, speed can make the difference from being able to succeed and to being reduced to a much lesser role or not in the NFL despite great college production and skills.

But why is the 40 yard dash the golden standard?

At the NFL combine, every prospect who chooses to workout will run the 40. However, over half of those numbers won’t be significant in the draft preparation. NFL teams are “expecting” players to run in a certain area based on how fast they were in games. If a player runs much faster or much slower than their film might suggest, that’s when teams get worried and reconsider their grade of speed.

For example, if Leonard Hankerson is projected, based on speed, to run a 4.55, which I would say has to be close to what NFL teams are predicting, that probably puts him late 1st round, early 2nd because he doesn’t have the speed to consistently gain separation and therefore “can’t” be a number one receiver.

However, if he runs, let’s say, a 4.45, which he’s told me he’s aiming for, then NFL teams will have to seriously reconsider what they think of his speed as a potential NFL prospect.

The other way around, if Jerrel Jernigan, who we’ve projected to run in the 4.35 range, runs around a 4.5, that will crush his stock because his potential is partially based on his speed as a receiver.

NFL teams have an idea what they will see at the Combine and usually don’t expect much different than that. So in reality, there isn’t too much resting on players forty time numbers-wise.

Another thing to consider is that teams want to see how fluid and smooth a player runs. How does he carry his weight? Does he run at an angle? Is he a long strider? Are his short steps making his time slower? Things like that can also impact a prospects grade slightly.

Finally, NFL teams also strongly consider the “splits” of the forty yard dash. The 40 yard run is split into three sections. The first ten yards, which showcases a players explosiveness and ability to get to top speed in a hurry, the first twenty yards, which shows a players ability to again, get to the top speed or maintain acceleration, and the full forty, which measures a players speed in general. For receivers and running backs, that 10 yard split is important.

So, how significant is the infamous 40 yard dash? In conclusion, it can be important at times. It’s not worthless like far too many say it is, because why else would they run it? It has an impact on the overall grading process, albeit not usually a major one.

Still, we see guys like Chris Johnson skyrocket after a great one, and Anquan Boldin fall after a sub-par one. Both had their grades impacted on draft day, and guys like Jerrel Jernigan, Lenonard Hankerson, and maybe this year’s running back speed demon will have an sudden rise or fall on draft day thanks to a three digit number.