After a typically dismal final week of the preseason, it’s finally time for some real NFL football. Even though it was the final week of the preseason, there has been plenty to talk about around the league.
From turbulent quarterback situations in the AFC South, to the “Dream Team” heading to St. Louis for their first real test, it’s sure to be an exciting week one in the NFL. So without further ado, lets take one last look back at the preseason action, and look forward to the 2011 regular season.
Not Too Big to Fail? A Look at the 2011 Philadelphia Eagles
After falling short in their quest for a Super Bowl berth in 2010, the Eagles spared no expense in building an impressive roster this offseason. Their moves to sign some of the top free agents were the talk of the NFL for weeks, and made the Eagles one of the most star studded teams in the league. But have all these moves left the Eagles facing impossibly high expectations?
Clearly, Philadelphia has an absolutely loaded line up on both sides of the ball. An offense that features Michael Vick, LeSean McCoy, and Desean Jackson is going to give defensive coordinators headaches. The defense has its share of stars as well, perhaps most notably in their secondary, where they have three Pro Bowl level talents in Nndami Asomugha, Asante Samuel, and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie.
While that’s great line up, it’s far from proven that quickly putting together an all star roster will result in a dominating product on the field. Building a football team is a delicate process, and adding too many stars at once can often times leave teams with a lot of talent, but not enough chemistry to win games. If you also consider the shortened offseason drastically cut into the time the Eagles have had to gel as a team, it’s easy to see why one should temper expectations for Philadelphia’s season. There also should be some concern about where the Eagles decided to spend their money in free agency. They signed one of the best defensive backs in the league in Asomuga, and added Jason Babin, who is primarily a pass rushing defensive end. In 2010, the Eagles pass defense was ranked #14 in the league. While that certainly leaves room for improvement, it’s not where their attention should have been focused.
The Eagles allowed 49 sacks last year, which was 4th most in the league. Protecting Vick, who has struggled throughout his career to stay healthy for 16 games, should have been the Eagles number one priority. Their main addition on the line, rookie Danny Watkins, has struggled at times in the preseason. Without an improved offensive line, I have a hard time imagining Vick staying upright and healthy.
Philadelphia also is facing a daunting schedule to start the season. They open the season on the road against an up and coming St. Louis team. On paper, you would expect the Eagles to handle the Rams. It’s a dangerous game for Philadelphia, however. Playing in the dome will be a difficult for an inexperienced offensive line, especially against the solid defensive front seven St. Louis will be putting on the field.
It doesn’t get any easier for the Eagles after week one. They then travel to face one of their biggest competitors for the NFC title, the Atlanta Falcons. Following those two tough tests on the road, the finally have a home game against a bitter rival, the New York Giants.
It’s a heck of a start for the Eagles. It’s not crazy to think the Eagles could start out 3-0, but starting the year off 0-3 is a distinct possibility, too. If that were to happen, the pressure on them would be almost unbelievable. Both the Philadelphia media and fans have extremely high expectations for this season, and a rough start could have them calling for heads to roll before the season is even a month old.
Surprise of the Week
It’s pretty much an undisputed fact that the quarterback is by far the most important position on any team. Consistency at the position can make an average team a playoff team, and inconsistent quarterback play can doom a good team. This is what makes Jacksonville’s move to release David Garrard Tuesday afternoon so puzzling. Garrard certainly isn’t a great quarterback. He’s very streaky and can make a great play or an awful one on any given snap. And realistically, he’s been outplayed by new Jacksonville starter Luke McCown. But this is the second year that McCown has outplayed Garrard in camp, so why wait until 5 days before camp to make the move?
Jack Del Rio said in a Tuesday afternoon press conference that the move was put off until the last minute because the Jaguars were “waiting on a sign of life” from Garrard, but at what cost? Garrard took all of the first team reps in training camp, which will put McCown at a severe disadvantage. McCown, who has only thrown 23 passes in the last three seasons, will now have to establish chemistry with the starting offense in less than a week. That’s a tall order for a quarterback whose last start was in 2007.
Don’t forget the impact this will have on 10th overall pick Blaine Gabbert, either. While Garrard was taking first team reps away from McCown, Gabbert was spending his training camp running with the third team. His development would have been aided immensely by practicing against better defensive players this preseason. Not only did cutting Garrard this late hurt Gabbert’s development, but it actually makes him more important: Jacksonville is only keeping two quarterbacks on the roster, so Gabbert is only one play away from having to contribute immediately.
Overall, it’s a tough move for Jaguars fans to digest. With the Colts looking at a start without Peyton Manning, and the Texans and Titans still unproven commodities, the AFC South is a division that was up for grabs. Now with this late shake up at quarterback, it’s hard to imagine that they’ll get off to a strong start to the season.
Rookie Watch
As we head into the start of the 2011 NFL season, it’s always fun to handicap (and tough to accurately predict) who will finish the season as the offensive and defensive rookies of the year.
On the defensive side of the ball, it’s almost always about the linebackers. In the last ten years, eight winners have been linebackers, and the other two (Julius Peppers and Ndamukong Suh) racked up plenty of sacks and big plays to grab voters attention. With this in mind, there are four guys on the defensive side of the ball that I think really have shot at being the defensive rookie of the year.
The obvious choice for defensive rookie of the year is Denver linebacker Von Miller. He’s looked outstanding in the preseason, and he’s only going to get better as the season progresses. He’s certain to rack up plenty of sacks, and he’ll give Bronco fans something to cheer about in what could be a pretty rough year ahead.
Houston defensive end JJ Watt is a player that has very quietly had a solid preseason. He was penciled in as a starter from day one for the Texans, and defensive coordinator Wade Phillips is going to put him in a position to make plays all season long.
Titans linebacker Akeem Ayers is going to have an opportunity to put up some eye catching stats this year. Tennessee is planning on using him to rush the passer from both outside linebacker spots, as well as from the defensive end position on clear passing downs. He’s made plays all camp, and he figures to keep that up throughout the season. And while all three of these guys are likely to have outstanding seasons, I think it’s Von Miller that will end up with the title at the end of the year.
On offense, it’s a little trickier. The first position one would look at is quarterback. Although it’s been a quarterback that’s won 4 out of the last 7 years, I just don’t see any of the rookies playing enough of the season (or consistently enough, in Cam Newton’s case) to merit winning the title.
Mark Ingram is someone that is getting a good deal of hype heading into the season, and for good reason. He finds himself in a great position: he’s the goal line running back on one of the best offensive teams in the league. He’s likely to score a ton of touchdowns, and putting up points is the best way to earn rookie of the year honors.
The Falcons gave up a ton to draft Julio Jones in April, and that’s not the kind of investment a team makes for someone they plan to use as a decoy. Jones is going to get plenty of looks from a very good passer in Matt Ryan. Having a top wide receiver in Roddy White playing on the other side will keep defenses from doubling Jones too much, and you have to think Ryan and Jones will be taking advantage of that time and time again.
A tight end has never won the offensive rookie of the year award, but it could happen this year. Lance Kendricks, a tight end out of Nebraska, is playing for a St. Louis offense that is going to coming throwing the ball all over the field. In the Rams preseason finale Kendricks had 73 receiving yards and a touchdown. If he can put up those numbers consistently, he’ll certainly have a chance to win the award. At the end of the year, however, I think it will be Julio Jones that’s the offensive rookie of the year.
Fantasy Notes
If you drafted Peyton Manning on the news that he had been taken off the PUP list, you have to feel pretty discouraged right now. It now looks like Manning could be missing considerable time, leaving you with what could be a wasted high draft pick. You aren’t totally out of luck, though. Depending on the size of your league, there is still probably a quarterback or two available that you can feel comfortable with starting for a few weeks.
The first guy you should target is Matt Stafford. He’s a guy that has been almost criminally under drafted this year (his ADP has been in the 120s). You’ll likely have to make a trade to pick him up, but taking in to account where his current owner drafted him you’re likely to get a bargain. He’s a guy who brings huge upside in terms of fantasy production. He has a ton of weapons at his disposal in Calvin Johnson, Nate Burleson, and Brandon Pettigrew. He’ll play over half of his games in a dome, and he plays in an offense that is going to sling the ball all over the field. The only question mark (and it’s a HUGE one) is whether or not he can stay healthy for a full 16 games.
Ryan Fitzpatrick (available in 88% of leagues on NFL.com) isn’t a name that you often think of when talking about fantasy quarterbacks, but he’s actually a pretty solid starter in most leagues. He posted an 81.8 QB rating in 13 games last season, and looked extremely sharp (11-12, 2 TDs) in the all important third preseason game. He’s a decent threat running the ball as well, so he could get you some extra points occasionally as well.
If you’re in a very deep league and the guys mentioned above aren’t available, you might want to take a flier on Rex Grossman (available in 99% of leagues on NFL.com). He’s obviously not a top fantasy player, but he won’t be terrible. Last year he averaged almost 300 yards passing a game, and threw seven touchdowns and only four interceptions. Grossman probably won’t win you any games, but he probably won’t lose you any either.
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