After a great opening week of NFL football last week, this week didn’t disappoint. There were some surprises, as one week removed from looking dominate, Baltimore struggled on the road at Tennessee. Cam Newton had another huge game and Tony Romo played through a broken rib and punctured lung to lead the Cowboys to victory in overtime. To top it all off, the Buffalo Bills appear to be relevant for the time in recent memory.
But not everyone will leave week two happy. Kansas City (and fantasy players across the country) saw their season go up in flames as Jamaal Charles tore his ACL. Michael Vick only made it through six quarters before he was knocked out, and Green Bay will be without their Pro Bowl safety Nick Collins for the rest of the year after a neck injury.
With so much going on across the league, it’d be hard not to miss something. We’ve got you covered in this week’s NFL recap.
Fitzpatrick and Jackson lead a surging offense in Buffalo
At the beginning of the season, one of the most controversial debates in the league was who would win the AFC East. On one hand you had the New England Patriots, a veteran team who has owned that division for years. Challenging them were the New York Jets, a team that appeared set to finally overtake the Patriots after knocking them out of the playoffs last season. But after all the talk about those two teams, the Ryan Fitzpatrick led Buffalo Bills are running neck and neck with New York and New England and look like they could challenge for the division as well.
To say the Bills 2-0 run to start the season is surprising is a tremendous understatement. The Bills stumbled to a 2-4 finish in their last six games, leaving the expectations pretty low for the 2011 season. What’s even more surprising than the 2-0 start is how they’re winning games.
2010 was an abysmal season for the Buffalo offense. They average only 107.5 yards per game on the ground, and threw for only 197 yards a game (putting them at 24th in the league). On top of the dismal stats the Bills had, they let one of their playmakers, Lee Evans, leave to play for Baltimore via trade. It didn’t seem as though Buffalo had much reason to be optimistic for improvement in 2011.
Enter Ryan Fitzpatrick and Fred Jackson. Neither of these players had much expected from them heading into the season. The Bills drafted CJ Spiller last year with the hope that he would be an impact player from the running back position, and Jackson was only expected to total around 900 yards again this season. Fitzpatrick too had relatively low expectations at the start of the year too. He was a guy who wouldn’t lose you too many games, but he wouldn’t win you too many either.
So it’s nothing less than a huge surprise for Buffalo and the rest of the NFL that the Bills have turned into a bit of an offensive juggernaut. They boast the leading rusher as Jackson has ran for 229 yards. Fitzpatrick has leads the league with seven touchdown passes while only throwing one interception. As a whole, the Bills are 7th in the league with 422 yards per game (a 38% increase over their production last season) and are leading the league with 39.5 points per game.
What stands out most about the Bills offensive production is when in games the offense is peaking. Jackson is dominating as the opposing defenses tire. In the first half of their first two games, Jackson is averaging an extremely respectable 4.7 yards per carry. You’d be hard pressed to find a coach that wouldn’t be happy with that number, but in the second half Jackson gets even better. He averages an astounding 8.7 yards per carry then, and he’s scored both of his touchdowns in the second half as well. Fitzpatrick has been clutch in the second half along with Jackson. The Harvard alum is completing 72% of his passes in the second half, and has yet to throw an interception later than the second quarter.
In spite of the strong start, it is going to be an uphill battle for Buffalo as they continue through the season. The competition will be much tougher, and it starts next week as they face their biggest test yet as they face the New England Patriots. But if Fitzpatrick and Jackson can continue to play at a high level, the Bills may just have a shot at a playoff spot this year.
Surprise of the Week 
The stage was set for a lopsided game in Nashville Sunday afternoon. Baltimore was coming off a near perfect week one win over their arch rival Pittsburg, and Tennessee had just been dominated by what was thought to be lesser completion in Jacksonville. The Titans’ supporters were already talking about another top five pick in next Aprils’ draft, and the Ravens were ready to be regarded as the team to beat in the AFC. And as fate would have it, there was a decisive victory at LP field Sunday, but the result wasn’t what anyone expected.
To put it simply, Tennessee looked awful in their loss in Jacksonville last week. The offense was ineffective, and the defense looked disorganized and lethargic. Returning home to play their bitter rivals seemed to revitalize the Titans on all fronts. Ray Rice figured to have a huge game against a defense that had been badly gashed by Jacksonville. But remarkably, it was the Titans defense that had the solid game. They held Rice in check for all but one play (a 31 yard TD scamper on a screen pass where Rice left multiple defenders grasping at air). Rice finished with 43 yards on 13 carries, far from the 107 yards he had against Pittsburgh last week. The Titans’ secondary shut down the Baltimore passing game, intercepting Joe Flacco twice and limiting him to a 46% completion rate.
The most surprising thing about the Titans victory was that they won through the passing game. The Ravens’ defensive game plan was clear: stop Chris Johnson at all costs. And to an extent, they were successful. Johnson was limited to only 53 yards as he struggled to find any open running lanes. But that came at a tremendous cost to Baltimore, as it left their defensive backs on islands with Kenny Britt and Nate Washington. Matt Hasselbeck was rarely under pressure and was able to get the ball to Britt 9 times for 135 yards and a touchdown. The Ravens were unable to stop the Titans on two key fourth down conversions, one that Javon Ringer scored a 10 yard TD on, and the other which allowed the Titans to run all but 26 seconds off the clock in the fourth quarter.
In spite of the win, fans shouldn’t make too much of this game. The Ravens were coming off an emotional win against Pittsburgh, and Tennessee was playing with the desperation of a team that needed to get on the right track quickly. They were missing their top two corner backs due to injury, and facing one of the top wide receivers in the league with Britt. It was a dangerous situation for Baltimore to go into, and while the loss is disappointing, it’s certainly not the end of their season. They still have a solid defense, and a great running game. What they need now is for Flacco to step up and start winning games, and not just managing them.
Rookie Watch
Back before the draft I interviewed Chattanooga cornerback Buster Skrine as he was coming off the Texas vs. the Nation game. When I asked him which player impressed him most during the week, there was no hesitation in his answer. He said that without a doubt, wide receiver Denarius Moore was the best player there. Skrine was extremely complimentary on Moore’s route running and ball skills in the air. So it wasn’t a surprising to me when Moore exploded for Oakland this week. Moore, who somehow slipped to the firth round, got the chance to start against Buffalo as the Raiders were without their top three wide receivers.
He had a spectacular game, catching five passes for 146 yards, including a 50 yard touchdown. While he was buried on the depth chart at the beginning of the game, head coach Hue Jackson admitted it’d be hard to keep him off the field any longer. Look for him to get more playing time in the future, and to take advantage of it.
Moore wasn’t the only SEC product that had a big game on Sunday. Bengals top pick AJ Green looked much improved in his second start, catching ten passes in this outing for 124 yards and his second touchdown of the year. And while Cam Newton is grabbing all the headlines with his huge numbers through his first two starts, Green’s QB Andy Dalton is off to a solid start to his career. Against the Broncos he completed 27 of 41 passes for 332 yards and two touchdowns. Like Newton (who threw three picks against the vaunted Green Bay defense), Dalton showed he still has a lot to learn, taking a crucial sack in the two minute drill as the Bengals eventually lost 24-22. Dalton also has struggled on third down, where he has seen his completion rate drop to 42% while averaging only 1.57 yards per pass.
Stat of the Week
There was a lot of loud complaining about the NFL’s decision to move kickoffs up five yards. It was feared that it would eliminate kickoff returns by drastically increasing the amount of touchbacks. However, through two weeks that hasn’t been the case. Though it’s a small sample size to go on, it’s interesting to see how the stats compare to last season’s return numbers.
Now, it does go without question that the number of touchbacks has drastically increased due to the new rule. About 45% of kickoffs have been touchbacks so far this year. That is compared to last year, where only around 15% of kicks were touchbacks. So clearly the change has effected how many chances a returner will have to make a play. But has it eliminated the chance for a big play?
Last season, there were 23 kick returns for touchdowns. There were twelve returns 95 yards or longer and an average return was 22.3 yards. This season, all of those numbers have jumped. In just two weeks, there have been 3 touchdown returns, three returns over 95 yards, and an average return has gone for 25.5 yards. If you extrapolate those numbers over a 16 game season, that would double the number of long kick returns and add another return for a touchdown.
So don’t be too quick to crucify the new kickoff rule. While there has been an increase in touchbacks, there have still been plenty of big plays across the league on kickoffs. Of course, we’ll have to see if these numbers hold up for the rest of the season, but if we can still have big plays and lessen the risk for catastrophic injuries, I say it’s a good move.
Fantasy Notes
Fantasy players everywhere were dealt crushing blows as Jamaal Charles’ knee buckled, ending his season in week two. If you happened to have him on your roster, you likely spent your first pick on him, which is leaving you in quite a predicament. So where do you go from here?
Your first instinct is likely to try to grab Thomas Jones or Dexter McCluster. I’d advise against picking up either. As the injuries keep piling up for Kansas City, it’s become clear quickly that the Chiefs are going to be very bad. The fact that they will be playing from behind for most of their games all but eliminates Jones’ value, because he simply doesn’t play when they are behind. McCluster has a little more value, especially in PPR leagues, but there is likely to be better value for you else where on the waiver wire.
The top guy on your list of replacements has to be Ben Tate. Somehow, he’s still available in around 30% of leagues. Arian Foster’s hamstring issues are likely to linger for quite some time, and Tate is more than capable of carrying the load for Houston. If you aren’t fortunate enough to snag Tate, you next best option is to look at Roy Helu. He was one of my favorite sleeper picks prior to the fantasy draft season, simply because he is a great fit in Mike Shanahan’s offense.
His carries will continue to increase as the year goes on, and his play making abilities should allow him to capitalize on them. If you’re forced to look at really long shots, I like Tashard Choice in Dallas. Felix Jones has proven only that he can’t stay healthy for 16 games, and while Dallas likes Demarco Murray, I think Choice will be the guy that ends up benefitting most from Jones’ injury situation. With Tony Romo and Miles Austin hurting, there will be plenty of opportunities for Choice to make some plays.
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