Fantasy Football Week 4: Sit or Start

In the second week now of our “Sit or Start” fantasy football weekend preview, we’ll take a look once again at the potential fantasy starters that maybe should be considered for a spot on the bench, while also looking at a few unheralded (and maybe free agent) players that could work wonders this weekend.

So, take a look at why to bench a few Bills and start a few Broncos, know why to not bank on another Cowboys zero TD effort and to bank on the Patriots not improving their pass defense this week.
 

QB – Sam Bradford, Rams
The Dallas Cowboys are the 3rd best offense in football, statisically speaking. And the Washington Redskins prevented a touchdown for the entire game. They have only given up 2 passing touchdowns this season, and opposing QBs have a 58.2% completion percentage. While he’s not at the cut level yet, Bradford is an obvious non-starter for the forseeable future.

RB – Fred Jackson, Bills
Jackson has been very impressive thus far this season, and while Ryan Fitzpatrick gets most of the love for the Bills surprising start, Jackson has been a huge factor. However, he’ll be taking on a Bengals defense that is giving up just 2.9 yards per attempt and the longest running play against them is 17 yards so far this year. Not a lock to be benched, Jackson shouldn’t be expected for more than 70 yards, maybe a touchdown.

RB – Mark Ingram, Saints
The Saints offense has utilized a few running backs, but Ingram has been, for the most part, the feature back. However, the Jaguars have not allowed a single runner to get over 60 yards in a game, so expecting Ingram to break that trend, especially since they have depth at the position.

WR – Stevie Johnson, Bills
Along with an impressive run defense, the Bengals have the 5th best pass defense and have 9 sacks so far this year. I wouldn’t bank on Ryan Fitzpatrick beating the Patriots and then losing to the Bengals, but it won’t be as easy as many will think based on the defensive numbers the team put up this year.
 
WR – Plaxico Burress, Jets
Now that the Jets and Ravens have become a “Rex Ryan Rivalry”, these games are set to be fun to watch for the forseeable future. However, don’t expect the game to be too high scoring. The Ravens have allowed just 3 receiving touchdowns all season, not good news for the redzone feature target for the Jets.

WR – Julio Jones, Falcons
Julio shouldn’t be starting in most leagues (I know because he’s been on my bench all year), but don’t expect him to come out against the lackluster Seahawks. I do think the Falcons will finally look impressive as an offense, but I don’t expect a wealth of production from the receivers against a Top 10 NFL pass defense.

TE – Kellen Winslow, Bucs
Winslow has been quietly productive this year for the Bucs, a solid target for Josh Freeman. But the Colts are only allowing 40 yards per game for tight ends, and I would expect the Bucs to run the ball often against Indy in this one.

DEF – Detroit Lions
The Lions have been a sexy pick-up for a defense, but against the Cowboys, the 3rd ranked offense in the NFL, coming off of a loss in Dallas, I would be very afraid of a shootout in this one. They are number one in the NFL in sacks this year, and I expect Dallas to attack Stafford early and often and force Jahvid Best to be them.
              
      
PLAYERS TO START    

QB – Kyle Orton, Broncos
While the Packers won last year thanks to a very good secondary and pass rush, so far this year the Packers have allowed at leats 300 yards in each game. While Kyle Orton isn’t a great start, I’d take him in the Top 15 this weekend against the Packers as far as quarterbacks are concerned, and another 300 yard effort against the Packers should be in short order.

QB – Jason Campbell, Raiders
Campbell has been quietly productive this year for the Raiders, and as he matches up against the Patriots this weekend, that shouldn’t slow down. The Patriots are allowing over 380 yards per game and allowing a 66.7% completion percentage for opposing quarterbacks.
 
RB – Frank Gore, 49ers 
Gore has been a frustrating back for many fantasy teams as he refuses to be productive. However, the Eagles pass defense is too talented for Alex Smith, and the Eagles have the 3rd worst run defense in the NFL, including starting undersized Brian Rolle this week at weakside linebacker. If Gore can’t get to 80+ and probably a score, he should be benched for the forseeable future.

RB – Bernard Scott, Bengals
Now the team’s top rusher thanks to Cedric Benson’s suspension, Bernard Scott will be getting the bulk of the carries in this one, likely 20+. The Bills have allowed 4.7 yards per carry this year so far, so the speedy Scott could break a big play of two, really adding to his numbers in a hurry this week.

RB – Roy Helu Jr., Redskins
Helu Jr. hasn’t gotten as many carries as initially thought since his 10 carry game against the Cardinals two weeks ago, but should start to get more and more carries as the season progresses. The Rams are allowing a league high 176 rushing yards per game, and that leaves room for Hightower and Helu to both be productive in this one.
   
WR – Eric Decker, Broncos
Decker not only should be picked up in all leagues, but he’s inching closer and closer to a lock to be a starter. He’s been consistent in PPR leagues, and with the Broncos playing the Packers this weekend and Orton should be getting around 300 yards this weekend, Decker should be a high producer.

WR – Torrey Smith, Ravens
Smith’s coming out party last week for 3 TDs (all in one quarter) shouldn’t be looked at as a sign of things to come with those numbers, but I don’t think Smith is set to be a one game wonder either. The Jets secondary is banged up, especially Antonio Cromartie, who will be matched up against Smith. In a game that could be decided by a few big plays, Smith has that ability.
 
WR – Denarius Moore, Raiders
As I expect Jason Campbell to maximize playing against one of the leagues worst secondaries in the Patriots, his go to target could continue to be Denarius Moore. Jacoby Ford does return for the Raiders this week and could steal some of Moore’s thunder, but I would be more surprised if Moore didn’t have 6+ catches and 70+ yards in this one. 

TE – Kyle Rudolph, Vikings
Last week, Kansas City shored up their deep pass defense a little now that they’ve had two weeks to work on replacing Eric Berry, but they still are allowing receivers and tight ends to get in the seam and give quarterbacks multiple areas to dump the ball off. While McNabb hasn’t been nearly impressive enough this year, the Vikings offense should be better than the Chiefs offense (which isn’t saying much) and Rudolph should be a safe target for McNabb all game long.

DEF – New Orleans Saints                 
The Saints have allowed big plays all year long, especially in the passing game, but with Blaine Gabbert at quarterback, I don’t expect him to take advantage of big plays, especially with the attackign Saints defensive style of play.  

My Picks for the Weekend
Cowboys over Lions
Bears over Panthers
Bills Over Bengals
Titans over Browns
Vikings over Chiefs
Redskins over Rams
Saints over Jaguars
Texans over Steelers
Eagles over 49ers
Cardianls over Giants
Falcons over Seahawks
Dolphins over Chargers
Patriots over Raiders
Packers over Broncos
Jets over Ravens
Bucs over Colts