With Michigan State over Big Ten favorite Wisconsin and Texas Tech pulling a Mike Leach and upsetting Big 12 favorite Oklahoma, College Football was at maximum excitement level this weekend and should snowba into more great upsets and surprises as the weeks go on.
But what to make of the quarterback play of Russell Wilson and Kirk Cousins? And how about why Texas Tech was able to have so much success against Oklahoma? How did Landry Jones look, even in an upset loss?
And I’ll talk about why not to start crowning rookie quarterbacks as future greats based on less than half a season, as well as the Top 10 tight ends (statistically) in college football.
Russell Wilson of Wisconsin vs. Kirk Cousins of Michigan State
In what turned out to be an epic Big Ten match-up of Top 2 teams, some true colors were shown on Saturday night. For one, we learned that Wisconsin is beatable. Another, we learned that Michigan State is still for real, and now the new favorites in the Big Ten. And finally, we learned that once again, Hail Mary’s can come true.
But watching the game with a scout’s eye in mind, I learned a few more things. Mainly, Russell Wilson has a much better quarterback mind-set and winning ability than Kirk Cousins. I’ve been a major Kirk Cousins fan since his sophomore year, so for me to talk anything but highly of him should come at a bit of a surprise. But his play towards the end of the game once again showed his biggest flaw: I don’t know if he’s a big time, game changing quarterback. His arm is for sure there. He can make all the throws, and puts the ball in great places for his receivers on the outside and deep down the field. He can check down well and doesn’t seem overly confused by blitzes. For those main reasons, I don’t think he’s far behind Landry Jones of Oklahoma, if at all. But his very lackluster performance in crunch time (outside of that lucky Hail Mary throw) was extremely disappointing and made him consider him closer to a 3rd round grade than a 1st. He seemed to willing to check down and not force the ball down the field to get into field goal range. He looked a bit lost and seemed to be guided by the playbook, not by his reads for most of the 2nd half. He still made some excellent throws, but not the impressive, big play ones that the Luck’s, Barkley’s, Griffin’s and Jones’s throw each and every game when their team needs it.
As for Russell Wilson, we can only wish he was 3-4 inches taller. He plays with so much enthusiasm, creativity, and guts that he still should be firmly in the Heisman race despite that loss. Being a successful quarterback in college in the Big Ten is no easy task, and he has proven to be nearly unstoppable, and almost gave his team the edge to force overtime. As far as the mental make-up, he’s what I’d look for in an NFL quarterback, but his lack of arm strength and size likely make him a glorified Troy Smith (former Heisman winner from Ohio State, 6th round drafted quarterback) at the next level. Combine he and Kirk Cousins, and you may very well have an Aaron Rodgers like passer.
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What to Make of Texas Tech over Oklahoma
The second of two major losses for a National Title contending team, Oklahoma ended a 39 home win streak to a Mike Leach-less Texas Tech team. The Red Raiders were up 31-7 at one point, and although Landry Jones lead a comeback that was, at one point, a potential heroic charge, the Sooners still fell. And while we can chalk it up to a few reasons, here are the biggest things to take away from this one:
-30 year old Neal Brown is a hell of an offensive coordinator – Hired as the youngest offensive coordinator in the FBS, Brown formerly ran the Troy Trojans offense two years ago where he was ultra productive. And though his scheme is different from Mike Leach’s he masterfully took advantage of mismatches (looking at you Gabe Lynn, cornerback).
-Seth Doege, quarterback for Texas Tech, seems to have an outstanding grasp of the offense. With 441 yards ad 4 TDs, his stats don’t scream wild success in a spread offense known for being as productive as Texas Tech’s. But the way he found receivers down the field, didn’t seem anxious in the pocket or in the game, and has great touch in the middle to deep range was ultra-impressive and should be a major concern for the Red Raiders future opponents.
-Landry Jones struggled much of the game against Texas Tech with ball placement, but he has the live arm, gunslinger mentality that NFL teams want in a leader under pressure. Even though it was in a loss and he wasn’t overly impressive, his ability and willingness to drive the ball down the field, make tough and gutsy throws, and not fade under pressure was impressive to me. I still don’t think he’s in Matt Barkley’s or Robert Griffin’s company yet as a QB prospect, but his ability to guide his team back meant a lot to me.?
-The blueprint to beat Oklahoma? Draws and quick passes on defense, take advantage of aggresive nature of the defense, and be very physical with Ryan Broyles and other short-mid field receivers early and often in the game. They now have at Kansas State, vs. Texas A&M, at Baylor, vs. Iowa State, and at Oklahoma State to end the year. I’d say at least one more loss this year for the Sooners.
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Rookie Quarterback Successes: What Do They Mean For the Future?
Andy Dalton of Cincinnati has his team off to a winning record just 6 games into the year. Christian Ponder, in making just his first start for the Vikings, nearly upset the Green Bay Packers and Aaron Rodgers last week. Blaine Gabbert had his starting quarterback ahead of him, just a pro bowler a few years ago, cut so he could be the starter. And Cam Newton has been the darling of media attention as a rookie quarterback who’s single-handedly winning games for the Panthers.
But what does this early career success REALLY mean?
First off, I’m not one to jump ship after the draft and say that this is what I saw on film. I felt that Andy Dalton wasn’t a long term starter unless he had time to develop in a more west coast system, and had lots of talent around him. While his play so far has been much closer to the Bengals value (2nd round) than my value (4th round) on him as a prospect, I think as the season goes on and teams gameplan for him more effectively, his lack of a great arm, very average ball placement, and lack of great downfield reading will be exposed. As for Ponder, he hasn’t wowed me thus far. He has great accuracy, that was a huge plus on his scouting report. Also, he is a gutsy quarterback who can take a hit. And, he’s great on the run. All three of those things are why he’s having success so far. But don’t look for any big arm throws down the field, consistent strikes down the field, or great pocket awareness. Gabbert was my favorite of the bunch, but he still needed a year to develop, and while he’s playing the worst out of the four so far, I still think he could be among the best.
As for Newton, I thought he needed to just play early and figure it out, and maybe by the end of the first year it’d start to click. But his play so far has myself and likely NFL teams rethinking on evaluating risk for big, strong armed quarterbacks with a will to win like he does.
For the future, don’t expect these four to be consistent Pro-Bowlers like some are making them out to be. Newton should be the best of the bunch, as he had the highest ceiling of the group and so far he’s reaching that sooner than anyone expected. I still expect Gabbert to be up there in year 2-3. Ponder I thought would be an NFL starter (had a 2nd-3rd round grade on him), but never at the level that he be elite. Dalton fits that system well, but by the end of the year, I’m still very confident that Bengals fans won’t be overly excited by the future, as I don’t think he’ll get much better. And Jake Locker hasn’t even played yet, and I certainly feel he’s in the Top 3 mix for quarterbacks from this class.
In short, don’t expect these rookie QBs to just “develop” and the future will be great because they’re “good now”. Vince Young won the NFL Rookie of the Year with 7 rushing TDs and 12 passing TDs, and his future looked bright too. I’ll stick by my guns and wait the 2-4 years to judge this QB class. Hopefully most draft fans can do the same.
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Top 10…Tight End Pass Catchers of 2011
Because the tight end position has evolved so much from just 10-15 years ago, the players that play the position have turned from primary outside blockers to sometimes primary receivers in an offense. With NFL teams aggresively searching for impact tight ends that can be #1 or #2 receivers, a la Antonio Gates and Brandon Pettigrew, the position has become sort of a commodity.
On this list, only four are seniors: Blackburn (CMU), Fleener (Stan), Provo (‘cuse) and Egnew (Missouri). Fleener and Egnew are very much in the top three round discussion based on past years and this year’s production. Also, juniors Dwyane Allen and Tyler Eifert may consider declaring early as juniors and could be top three round picks, especially Alen. Finally, the loan freshman on this list, Seferian-Jenkins of Washington, has been ultra-impressive in this offense, and should have a bright future ahead of him.
1. Dwyane Allen Clemson – 432 yards
2. Tyler Eifert, Notre Dame – 429 yards
3. Ryan Otten, San Jose State – 417 yards
4. David Blackburn, Central Michigan – 401 yards
5. Coby Fleener, Stanford – 384 yards
6. Jack Doyle, Western Kentucky – 369 yards
7. Nick Provo, Syracuse – 366 yards
8. Ryan Griffin, UConn – 323 yards
9. Austin Seferin-Jenkins, Washington – 321 yards
10. Michael Egnew, Missouri – 312 yards
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