There’s no doubt that to really have a successful fantasy football season, you need to have a good deal of skill and knowledge of the NFL game. But much importantly than that, you need to be lucky. As it is every year, this was proven again in 2011 as top fantasy draft picks went down early and late round picks dominated leagues. So before you start putting together your big board for your 2012 fantasy draft, let’s take a look back at 2011.
The Risk isn’t Always Worth the Reward…
There were few hotter topics leading up to the fantasy draft season than whether Michael Vick was worthy of the first pick of the draft. The upside was without question: Vick was so much better than other fantasy quarterbacks in 2010, you had to think a repeat performance would almost guarantee you a fantasy championship. The risk was just as obvious, though. Losing Vick to injury would be devastating, and Vick was one of the more injury prone players in the league.
If you’re someone who ending up drafting Vick #1 overall, you know all too well which of the two scenarios ended up happening. Vick battled injuries throughout the season, and by years end was only able to play complete 11 games. Even when he was on the field, Vick wasn’t the same player he was in 2010. Depending on your scoring system, Vick ended up being ranked somewhere around #15 in points for quarterbacks, hardly what you want from your top pick.
Vick wasn’t the only high risk fantasy disappointment in 2011. Chris Johnson didn’t struggle with injuries like Vick did, but maybe that only made Johnson’s season even more frustrating for fantasy owners. There was plenty of debate regarding which running back should have been rated #1 heading into the season, and Johnson got the nod in many of those debates in spite of his lengthy hold out.
Anyone who drafted Johnson had to regret it by season’s end. Johnson was able to rolling for a couple of games, but even that couldn’t save a dreadful season. He finished the season barely over 1,000 yards (1,047, ranked #14 in the league), and only scored four rushing touchdowns, fewer than 30 other players. It will remain to be seen if Johnson can turn it around next year, but it’d be surprising if many of his owners this season are drafting him again in 2012.
…But then again, sometimes it is.
There was no bigger surprise than the play of Cam Newton this year. It’s always a huge risk to put faith in a rookie quarterback to carry your fantasy team. But for players that opted to take that risk and roll with Newton as their starter, that risk paid off big time.
Newton’s fantasy impact is one that no one really could have predicted. Newton ended the season with more rushing yards than Ahmad Bradshaw and Darren McFadden, more rushing touchdowns than anyone not named LeSean McCoy, more passing yards than Michael Vick or Ryan Fitzpatrick, and more passing touchdowns than Jay Cutler.
So, what can we take away from this for next year? Well, obviously high risk-high reward players are going to be extremely tempting when your draft day rolls around. But it’s probably not your best bet to risk your season with your first pick. Stick with someone you know (barring an unforeseen injury) is going to produce for you. There will be plenty of high ceiling guys for you to take later on. Newton wasn’t a high pick in most drafts, but he ended up being one of the best fantasy players of the season.
Additionally, if you choose to gamble on your first pick, it’s imperative that you get a solid fall back option sooner than later. While wasting a roster spot on insurance can be frustrating, it’s a necessity. Drafting a reliable alternative for Vick would have cost you an RB2 or WR2, but it also likely could have kept you from missing the playoffs.
Dynasty League Stock Watch
Stock Rising
LeSean McCoy, RB, Philadelphia Eagles – It should go without saying that McCoy’s stock is sky rocketing after his record setting season. 1,600 yards from scrimmage and 20 touchdowns speak for themselves, but there is more to like from McCoy’s game. He doesn’t take many big hits in Andy Reid’s offense, and he’s only 23 years old. He’s got plenty of great seasons yet in what should continue to be a high scoring Eagles offense.
Victor Cruz, WR, New York Giants – Cruz came out of nowhere to have an outstanding season, finishing with 1,194 yards and 7 touchdowns. Eli Manning had one of the better seasons of his career and Cruz quickly became one of his favorite targets. Cruz just finished what essentially was his rookie season, and should have plenty of productive years to ahead of him.
Rookie QBs Robert Griffin III & Andrew Luck – It’s not too often that we could see two rookie quarterbacks make a big impact on the fantasy landscape, but it could happen in 2012. Griffin III especially would have a high ceiling as a dual threat quarterback. Many will jump to compare him to Newton due to his mobility, but the Baylor standout is far ahead of where Newton was as a passer at Auburn.
Stock Falling
Mark Sanchez, QB, New York Jets – Sanchez is supposedly still going to be the starter in 2012, but don’t get your hopes up for a good year from him. There will be plenty of options for you to choose from to replace Sanchez on your roster (Luck, Locker, and RGIII come to mind), so there really isn’t a better time than now to move on.
Desean Jackson, WR, Philadelphia Eagles – The temperamental wide receiver kept making headlines for his actions off the field, but very rarely for making plays on it. He wasn’t a guy who could be relied upon throughout the fantasy season, and I don’t see that changing in 2012.
Ryan Grant, RB, Green Bay Packers – Grant is rapidly nearing the dreaded 30 years old benchmark that so often spells doom for a running back. On top of that, he plays in an offense that rarely runs the ball as it is. The younger and more effective James Starks appears ready to take over full time in 2012, and Grant’s days as an effective fantasy running back are likely over.
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