Each week, I’ll reprint portions of the DVOA standings from Football Outsiders (this week’s link: here) and give analysis of the teams relevant to the Steelers’ fortunes
This is a key week for the DVOA standings, since Football Outsiders starts to adjust for opponents. Again, the one-sentence definition of DVOA: the overall value of a team above or below the average NFL team. Last week, the Steelers were third in the NFL, 33.5% above average.
How does last Sunday’s loss to the Ravens change the rankings? Jump to find out!
|
Team |
DVOA |
Rk |
Last |
DAVE |
Rk |
Last |
Off |
Rk |
Last |
Def |
Rk |
Last |
ST |
Rk |
Last |
|
PIT |
24.5% |
6 |
33.5% |
25.4% |
2 |
29.8% |
-1.9% |
19 |
-8.4% |
-22.9% |
2 |
-33.7% |
3.6% |
6 |
8.2% |
|
BAL |
8.6% |
14 |
-1.3% |
17.8% |
6 |
16.7% |
-1.6% |
18 |
-12.3% |
-10.9% |
6 |
-12.0% |
-0.7% |
17 |
-1.0% |
|
CIN |
2.3% |
16 |
2.5% |
0.3% |
17 |
-0.3% |
-0.2% |
17 |
-5.2% |
-4.6% |
13 |
-5.9% |
-2.1% |
22 |
1.9% |
|
CLE |
-5.1% |
19 |
-6.6% |
-11.3% |
23 |
-14.3% |
2.9% |
15 |
-3.0% |
8.0% |
21 |
1.3% |
0.0% |
16 |
-2.3% |
Rk: Rank in NFL; Last: The stat’s value from last week.
Despite the adjustments, the changes from last week are mainly in the direction of how the teams performed on Sunday. The Ravens and Browns won, so they moved up a bit, while the Steelers moved down due to their loss.
Now that Ben Roethlisberger’s suspension is over, it’s time to do an analysis of the offense without him. The quarterbacks have been mainly replacement level, which is expected, since they came into training camp as the third and fourth-string QBs. Rashard Mendenhall is the fifth-best running back in the league, while Isaac Redman has been okay in his backup role and Mewelde Moore is the worst in the league at his main job, which is to catch passes out of the backfield on third down. Mike Wallace has been the best wide receiver on the Steelers so far, while Hines Ward is close behind and Antwaan Randle El has been mediocre in a small number of passes. Heath Miller has been hindered the most by Ben’s absence, as he’s currently ranked 25th among tight ends, which would be by far his worst season.
The defense fell to second in the NFL after last week. They still have the sixth-best pass defense and the second-best rush defense, but the pass defense fell from third to sixth, at least partly due to their performance on Sunday.
The special teams value and ranking fell after last week, mainly due to field goals, which are currently a sixth-worst 4.3 points below average on the season. Gee, missing four field goals in the first four games hurts a team, who knew? It would be the worst kicking season for Jeff Reed since 2006, and only his second below-average season since 2003.
I again find it interesting that the best offense in the division currently belongs to the worst team. It shows, though, that defense makes the difference in this division, and the Steelers have the best one right now.
This week’s opponent: The statistical enigma of Bye Week (team nickname unknown) currently has zeroes in every single stat, making them completely average. My guess is that the Steelers will play down to their level and will neither win nor lose.
Playoff Odds: It’s playoff odds time!
|
Team |
Rec |
DAVE |
EWins |
DIV |
BYE |
Wild Card |
Total |
Change |
|
PIT |
3-1 |
25.4% |
11.1 |
50.5% |
35.0% |
30.5% |
81.0% |
-8.4% |
|
BAL |
3-1 |
17.8% |
10.7 |
45.4% |
29.1% |
31.9% |
77.2% |
+15.3% |
|
CIN |
2-2 |
0.3% |
7.7 |
3.9% |
1.1% |
7.8% |
11.8% |
-9.3% |
|
CLE |
1-3 |
-11.3% |
5.6 |
0.3% |
0.1% |
1.1% |
1.4% |
+0.7% |
|
KC |
3-0 |
14.7% |
11.5 |
77.1% |
50.8% |
12.4% |
89.5% |
-4.4% |
|
NYJ |
3-1 |
23.7% |
10.8 |
55.5% |
31.9% |
25.0% |
80.5% |
+9.3% |
|
NE |
3-1 |
29.0% |
10.6 |
42.2% |
26.2% |
31.9% |
74.1% |
+15.2% |
|
IND |
2-2 |
16.5% |
9.2 |
46.5% |
9.3% |
6.9% |
53.3% |
-26.0% |
Change: Increase/decrease in total chance to make playoffs from previous week
Again, Football Outsiders takes their team rankings and simulates the rest of the season 10,000 times. The Steelers currently have the second-best chance to make the playoffs, at 81 percent. Kansas City tops the list mainly because of their 1.5-game lead and the fact that two bad teams are in their division. Indy’s loss to Jacksonville cost them, as they are still predicted to win the division, but barely. Meanwhile, Miami’s loss to New England on Monday drastically lowered their chances of making the playoffs, down to 9.8%.
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