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Each week, I’ll reprint portions of the DVOA standings from Football Outsiders (this week’s link: here) and give analysis of the teams relevant to the Steelers’ fortunes
As a reminder, DVOA is Football Outsiders’ efficiency stat, representing each team’s value compared to the average team. The Steelers have been near the top of the NFL DVOA standings all year, and the best team in the AFC North. Does that change after Week 7’s games? Jump it to find out!
|
Team |
DVOA |
Rk |
Last |
DAVE |
Rk |
Last |
Off |
Rk |
Last |
Def |
Rk |
Last |
ST |
Rk |
Last |
|
PIT |
27.8% |
2 |
32.6% |
27.4% |
1 |
31.0% |
7.0% |
15 |
7.7% |
3 |
-21.1% |
3.0% |
12 |
3.8% |
|
|
BAL |
8.4% |
12 |
11.5% |
10.6% |
12 |
15.6% |
7.2% |
14 |
7.2% |
2.3% |
16 |
-2.9% |
3.5% |
11 |
1.5% |
|
CIN |
-4.0% |
19 |
-2.8% |
-3.8% |
19 |
-2.8% |
4.2% |
16 |
-3.1% |
6.7% |
22 |
-0.3% |
-1.5% |
21 |
0.0% |
|
CLE |
-4.1% |
20 |
-13.6% |
-5.5% |
21 |
-15.1% |
-4.5% |
22 |
-3.5% |
3.3% |
20 |
10.9% |
3.6% |
10 |
0.8% |
Rk: Rank in NFL; Last: The stat’s value from last week
The Steelers are still one of the top two teams in the NFL, according to Football Outsiders’ metrics, with Baltimore the only other above-average team in the division. Each unit played worse than they normally have this season, as one might expect from a one-point win over the team currently ranked 13th (Miami).
Ben Roethlisberger’s return has helped the Steelers’ pass offense climb to eighth in DVOA, while the rushing offense has fallen to 16th. Check this out, though:
|
QB |
DVOA |
Rank |
DYAR |
Rank |
|
Roethlisberger |
67.3% |
1 |
260 |
17 |
|
Peyton Manning |
37.3% |
2 |
856 |
1 |
DVOA is a “per-play” stat, while DYAR is a cumulative stat, so Peyton Manning has been good all year, and has been 856 yards better than a typical backup quarterback. Roethlisberger, though, has been almost twice as good as Manning in his first two games back. You can’t expect Ben to keep up quite this level of production (the top QB DVOA is usually in the mid-40% range,) but it’s certainly something to watch through the rest of the season.
A look at the offensive line stats shows that the absence of Trai Essex has hurt the running game. The Steelers are fifth in running outside right and eighth in running outside left, but in the bottom half of the league in running up the middle, a big reason why the rush offense ranking has fallen.
As far as defense goes, the Steelers are sixth (surprisingly) in pass defense and first in rush defense (not surprisingly). Looking further, the Steelers have done fairly well against the opponent’s top two receivers, but not so well against other receivers, tight ends, and running backs. The defensive line is the best in the league, as you would expect. They’re first in Adjusted Line Yards and third in getting to the quarterback. They’re also first in limiting open field yards, meaning there are almost never runs of more than ten yards against them.
Two things have dragged down the Steelers’ special teams ranking lately. They are fourth-worst (3.5 points below average) in field goals and extra points and third-worst (3.8 points below average) in punt returns. So Jeff Reed has still been missing too many field goals, and Antwaan Randle El has still been mediocre at actually returning punts instead of calling for fair catches.
And now, the exercise in entertainment called the playoff odds. Again, I’ll list the AFC North, and the other projected AFC playoff teams.
|
Team |
Record |
DAVE |
EWins |
DIV |
BYE |
Wild Card |
Total |
Change |
|
PIT |
5-1 |
27.4% |
11.7 |
68.9% |
50.2% |
22.2% |
91.1% |
+4.2% |
|
BAL |
5-2 |
10.6% |
10.2 |
30.2% |
16.7% |
35.8% |
66.0% |
-6.5% |
|
CIN |
2-4 |
-3.8% |
6.4 |
0.7% |
0.1% |
2.0% |
2.8% |
-1.7% |
|
CLE |
2-5 |
-5.5% |
6.1 |
0.2% |
0.0% |
1.1% |
1.2% |
+1.0% |
|
KC |
4-2 |
20.8% |
11.0 |
92.8% |
30.3% |
0.9% |
93.8% |
+8.0% |
|
NE |
5-1 |
25.5% |
11.3 |
47.9% |
37.0% |
39.2% |
87.0% |
+6.9% |
|
NYJ |
5-1 |
18.6% |
11.1 |
49.6% |
35.9% |
35.7% |
85.3% |
-3.4% |
|
TEN |
5-2 |
23.4% |
10.4 |
58.2% |
15.1% |
10.0% |
68.1% |
+8.9% |
Change: Increase/decrease in total chance to make playoffs from previous week
This chart comes from Football Outsiders’ simulation of the rest of the season 10,000 times. The Steelers have over a 90 percent chance to make the playoffs. The Chiefs still have the best chance to make the playoffs in the AFC, as they have the biggest division lead of anyone. An interesting nugget from further down the page: Football Outsiders also lists the odds of several Super Bowl matchups. The “Keystone Bowl” (Steelers-Eagles) currently has a 3.3 percent chance of taking place.
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