Blitzburgh Pick’em: Week 13

This week the Pittsburgh Steelers (8-3) travel to Baltimore to take on the Ravens (8-3) in a match-up that will put the winner on top of the AFC North. Both teams are coming off close wins, and have a chance to take control in the divisional race and the AFC Playoff picture. The Ravens won the first meeting at Heinz Field with a late TD pass…However the Steelers were playing that game without Big Ben. This should be a very close game, that is sure to be one of the most physical you will see this year.

Jump for our Predictions on this game and the rest of Week 13.

Bam:

I’d be remiss if I didn’t stick with the same prediction I made for the roundtable I did this week with some fellow Steelers bloggers.

I have a ton of respect for the Ravens. They play football the way it was meant to be played and they are the one other team in the NFL who is capable of physically beating the Steelers up on a good night. Baltimore’s physicality always brings out the best in Pittsburgh, but I think the Steelers offensive line is just a little too banged up to be able to handle Baltimore’s front 7 well enough for Pittsburgh to win. Neither team should be able to run much, but Flacco will have the time to make a few more plays throw the air and that will be the difference.

Ravens 20 Steelers 13

Brian:

Ah, Ravens week. Another ferocious battle between the division rivals. How much do you need to say about the match-up? We all know what we’re in for. I’ll go with the Steelers on top by a score of 5-3 because it’s not a good Steelers-Raven tilt unless the score looks like a baseball game.

Steelers 5 Ravens 3

George:

Here are the rankings for the Steelers and Ravens from Football Outsiders and Advanced NFL Stats in several categories:

As you would expect, the advanced stats say this is an even match up, except for the low rushing offense ranking for the Ravens by Advanced NFL Stats. I also added a column for penalty rate, which Advanced NFL Stats measures. The Steelers, predictably, have a high penalty rate this year (whether this is due to actually committing more penalties or some sort of conspiracy, I hope to find data and study at some point). A possible difference in the game, as Football Outsiders writer Doug Farrar (a good read on Twitter) points out in his weekly preview column, is that the Ravens pass defense is worst relative to the league against #1 and #2 receivers, an advantage for the Steelers.

However, I think the Steelers go 4-2 over the last six weeks, and I think this is one of those two. The home field for Baltimore will make the difference, as well as penalties. It’ll be close enough where the Steelers have a chance to drive down and tie at the end, but a key penalty will keep them out of field goal range.

Ravens 27 Steelers 24

Matt:

This is a huge game for both teams, and hopefully anyone reading this blog is already aware of the implications. I thought the Steelers and Ravens were pretty evenly matched the first time they met this season, Ravens winning 21-17. In this second match-up, the Steelers add Big Ben Roethlisberger to the mix, who was forced to miss the first game because he was serving his 4 game suspension at the time.

This will be a physical game, and I expect a lot of ticky-tacky penalties to start the game, this will be the refs trying to show they control the game, but I see the game getting more and more physical as it goes on…with less penalties along the way too.

I think this game will come down to who has the ball last. It will be a back-and-forth game, but I think The Steelers and big Ben will make the last play…and will pay the Ravens back for loss earlier this season.

Steelers 24 Ravens 17

Below are the Staff Picks for the rest of this week’s games.

STAFF PICKS