The Blueprint: How the Steelers defeat the Ravens

Since the Cleveland Browns were reincarnated as the Baltimore Ravens in 1996, the Steelers are 18-12 against their archrivals. The point spread (599-545) will show that the games have been extremely close on the scoreboard. However, a close look at the rivalry says that the Steelers have decidedly had the upper hand in recent years. Since 2007, the Steelers are 6-3 against Baltimore and have won all 6 games that Ben Roethlisberger played in. Roethlisberger hasn’t lost a game against Baltimore since December 24, 2006. 

Obviously this is good news for any Steelers fan. But what have the Steelers done in recent years that has helped consistently push them to close victories over the Ravens? What will they need to once again do on Saturday afternoon to deal another devastating loss to Baltimore? I break down the numbers and come up with a blueprint for a berth in the AFC Championship game after the jump. 

 Let’s look at the trends from the past 6 Steelers/Ravens games that Roethlisberger has played in. The numbers from the Ravens victories obviously aren’t irrelevant, but I’m more interested in what the Steelers have done well to beat Baltimore recently. 

The biggest difference maker in a lot of football games are turnovers and the Pittsburgh-Baltimore rivalry is no different. Both defenses are aggressive and force offenses into a lot of mistakes. In the last six Steeler victories, the Ravens have committed 15 turnovers while the Steelers have only turned it over 8 times. Both quarterbacks have been careless with the football at times, but Joe Flacco is a lot shakier in the pocket than Roethlisberger is. Just think back to some of the biggest moments from the past several Ravens games. Flacco’s fumble earlier this year. Polamalu’s TAINT in 2008. The Steelers have forced him to turn the ball over in crucial times and that will be a big story again on Sunday. No doubt. 

Another noticeable trend is the Steelers have thrown the ball often against Baltimore in recent years. Roethlisberger averaged 33.9 pass attempts per game in 2009 — the most in his career. He’s averaged 36 pass attempts per game over the past four wins against Baltimore even though all of the games were low scoring. I’d certainly expect this trend to continue. Ed Reed is healthy and always dangerous, but the Steelers best weapon is Roethlisberger and Baltimore is shaky at cornerback. As frustrating as it has been to watch the Steelers secondary get picked apart late in games, the Ravens have looked even worse in the 4th quarter at stopping the pass for long stretches over the past few seasons. If Saturday’s contest remains close as the game wears on, look for Bruce Arians to ratchet up the number of passing plays being called (insert Arians joke here). I’d certainly expect the Steelers to take a few shots down the field with Mike Wallace too. 

While the Steelers passing offense will be crucial, their pass defense will be even more important. Both rush defenses are so stout that the running games of each team will be a non-factor. When they’ve beaten Baltimore in recent years, the Steelers have done a remarkable job at stopping the Ravens aerial attack. The Ravens have only averaged 128 net yards passing in their last six losses to Pittsburgh. They only broke the 150 yard mark once and it was during the teams’ most recent meeting. Their quarterback play simply hasn’t been good enough. Flacco is improving, though, and has more weapons around him than ever before. The Steelers have struggled at times defending running backs and tight ends down the field. Both Ray Rice and Todd Heap will challenge them. Still, if Flacco can’t produce more than 200 net yards passing is there anyway the Ravens can score enough points to win? I don’t think so. 

Both the Steelers and Ravens have changed personnel a fair amount since 2007, when is when the Roethlisberger-led winning streak began. Both teams have even changed head coaches since then. But I don’t feel like the schemes and philosophies have changed much at all. When the Steelers beat the Ravens, they force a lot of turnovers, attempt an above average number of passes and torment Flacco for 60 minutes. It’s interesting to note that all three of these X-factors are directly applicable to quarterback play. My money is on which team gets better play from their signal caller and in recent history it has almost always been Pittsburgh.