Steelers-Ravens Statistical Preview Part 1: Steelers Offense vs. Ravens Defense

To get you prepared for Saturday’s big Divisional Round matchup between the Steelers and Ravens, we’re going deep into the advanced stats in three separate posts to see where each team has the advantage. As usual, Football Outsiders and Advanced NFL Stats provide all the number-y goodness.

In this first part of three, I’m going in-depth into the Pittsburgh offense and Baltimore defense with as much situational efficiency data as I can find, starting with the overall data:

For new readers, DVOA is a stat from Football Outsiders that measures the value per play compared to an average team. So, the Steelers offense is 25.4% better than an average offense, and the Ravens defense is 10.4 % better than an average defense (DVOA is always measured from the standpoint of the offense, so lower numbers are better for defenses). Advanced NFL Stats’ efficiency ratings are expressed in a yards per play format. The overall rankings there are: Steelers offense fifth, Ravens defense…fifth. So both sites consider this matchup very even.

We’ll look at the situational data after the jump!

I’ll start with the line data, since that’s been the Steelers’ biggest weakness all year (other than penalties):

Amazingly, it’s a relatively even matchup here as well. For all the hype about the Ravens’ defense, they haven’t gotten to the QB nearly as well as in years past. In fact, it’s their worst performance in that area since 1996.

Now, let’s look at the Ravens’ defense against types of receivers:

The Ravens’ relatively poor performance against #2 WRs means that someone will have a good game. I think they’ll give Mike Wallace the #1 WR treatment, meaning either Hines Ward or Emmanuel Sanders will make a key reception or three on Saturday.

Now to get all the remaining charts out of the way! In order, they are: DVOA by half, in the red zone, and by down. I’m not including the rankings, or all the numbers by down and distance or type of play because I’m using Football Outsiders’ premium stats (if you’re as curious about advanced football numbers as I am, it’s a good purchase)

In general, the Steelers’ offense will be best on third and fourth down, and worst on second down. I’d watch for all first down plays, as well as third down passes, as Baltimore’s defense is worst against those plays. Meanwhile, if the Steelers call a rushing play on first or second down, don’t expect it to be a rousing success. Also, the Steelers’ worst DVOA on offense by far comes on third-and-medium length situations (like third-and-five).

In the trenches, where rushing the QB is key, both teams are poor, so it’ll be the movable object (I’m talking about you, Jonathan Scott) versus the resistable force (I’m talking about you, everyone but Terrell Suggs and Haloti Ngata). Yes, that includes Ray Lewis. Look at Advanced NFL Stats’ Ravens page. As far as rushing the QB or getting tackles for loss, Lewis has fallen behind Cory Redding.

For an elite defense like the Ravens, the Steelers match up about as well as they could. It won’t be an easy day for the offense, but they should come up with enough big plays to get the TDs they need.