I’ll be previewing today’s matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars using all the advanced stats I can find. First, here’s a quick statistical recap of last week’s game vs. Tennessee. Follow the link below for Advanced NFL Stats’ win probability graph and other stats:
Ben Roethlisberger led the Steelers with 9.1 Expected Points Added (EPA), and Roethlisberger, Troy Polamalu, Daniel Sepulveda, and Ryan Mundy tied for the lead in Win Probability Added (WPA) with 0.11 (Yes, the fake punt was worth 11% to the Steelers’ chances of winning the game). Nate Washington and Cortland Finnegan led the Titans with 4.4 EPA, while WR Damian Williams led in WPA with 0.10.
Follow the jump for all the key advanced stats for today’s matchup!
Steelers vs. Jaguars
|
Team |
Total DVOA |
Rank |
Weighted DVOA |
Rank |
Offense |
Rank |
Defense |
Rank |
Special Teams |
Rank |
|
PIT |
15.6% |
10th |
20.7% |
4th |
12.6% |
10 |
-1.0% |
10 |
2.1% |
11 |
|
JAC |
-32.1% |
31st |
-23.3% |
30th |
-28.9% |
32 |
0.1% |
12 |
-3.1% |
28 |
As a reminder, DVOA represents the value on a play-by-play basis above what an average NFL team would provide. So, the Steelers have been 15.6% better than an average NFL team this year. Weighted DVOA includes Football Outsiders’ preseason projection, so not surprisingly, the Steelers have done worse than expected so far.
The DVOA numbers match up with the conventional wisdom thus far, that the Jaguars are one of the worst teams in the league and the Steelers have performed well, but far from elite status. Looking at more specific defensive numbers, the Jaguars are 13th against the pass and 10th against the run, so a balanced attack slanted towards the pass will probably be what the Steelers will do. The Jaguars are worst against #2 receivers and tight ends, so I’d expect either Hines Ward or Antonio Brown to have a big day.
The link above goes to the season standings of QuantCoach’s coaching stats (combining offense and defense), which I explained a couple weeks ago. Perhaps surprisingly, the Steelers are currently the best-coached team in the NFL, with an average difference between the Steelers and opponents’ offenses of 0.755 in the coaching stat. The Jaguars are 11th in the AFC.
The link goes to Advanced NFL Stats’ team rankings for week 6. The Steelers are ranked fourth, while the Jaguars are ranked 20th. The Steelers are 12th in passing and 11th in rushing, first in pass defense and 21st in rush defense. The Jaguars are 31st in passing, 24th in rushing, 10th in pass defense, and 6th in rush defense.
In general, Advanced NFL Stats seems to rank the Jaguars as a much better defense than Football Outsiders does. Football Outsiders seems to more heavily weigh the poor defensive performances against the Jets and the Bengals.
So, you probably want a prediction from me, huh?
All the stats, plus home field advantage, point to a Steelers blowout. I don’t think I’ll go that far, because there’s a chance they’ll give a dud performance like they did against the Colts. Still, I think Max Starks’ return has helped stabilize the offensive line, and the defensive line’s struggles seemed to correlate with the absence of Brett Keisel, so I think there’s a small chance of that happening. Steelers 21, Jaguars 10.
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