Many today are concerned that 2012 might be a down year some even speculate Boise State will not win the MWC, that San Diego or even God forbid Nevada! Some see a certain two loss season while others see a 3-4 loss season. Certainly any team that sends so many out to the NFL like the Bronco’s have in 2012 would give good reason to think in such away.
The last time Boise State saw so many key parts leave was 2006 the year of the greatest BSC bowl game of all times. So let’s do a breakdown of just how the class of 2006 vs. 2011 and compare by comparable role players.
Class of 2006 Class of 2011
Gerald Alexander Safety George Iloka Safety
Andrew Browning DT Billy Winn DT
Mike Dominguez DE Jarred Root DE
Dennis Ellis DT Chase Baker DT
Korey Hall MLB Byron Hout MLB
Legedu Naanee WR No comparable Loss
Jerard Rabb WR Tyler Shoemaker WR
Derek Schouman TE Kyle Efaw TE
Jared Zabransky QB Kellen Moore QB
When you add the, no comparable lost players from the class of 2011 things can start to get real gloomy real fast.. Arron Tevis, Hunter White, Doug Martin, Nate Potter, Tyrone Crawford,Cedric Febis,Travis Stanaway,Antwon Murray,Zach Waller,Thomas Bryd and Chuck Hayes III.
However when you compare the teams win margins you see 2006 team out scored their opponents by 277 points over 13 game with no losses for an average margin of victory by 21 points, while the 2011 class outscored their opponents by 312 points over 13 games with one loss for an average margin of victory of 23 points factoring in the 1 loss. Certainly we need to consider the strength of schedule, there is just no way you will ever convince me from start to finish that the 2006 team played anywhere near as difficult schedule as the 2011 team, not to take away anything they did just making a point.
As one can see the 2007 squad had a lot more of its remaining members from 06 then this 2012 class has, but does that mean the cupboard is bare? Let’s compare.
2007 Depth Chart 2012 My projected Depth Chart
Returned 5 starters Return 9 that had started
QB Taylor Tharp anyone 1 of 4 but let’s say it’s Joe Southwick
RB Ian Johnson D.J. Harper
RB Jeremy Avery Jay Ajayi or Drew Wright
WR Vinny Perretta Matt Miller
WR Jeremy Childs Mitch Borroughs
WR Julian Hawkins Gerald Boldewijn
WR Tanyon Bissell Kirby Moore
WR Aiona Key Aaron Burks
TE Ryan Putnam Gabe Linehan
TE Richie Brockel Chandler Koch
TE Sherm Blaser Holden Huff
LT Ryan Clady Faraji Wright
LG Tad Miller Joe Kellogg
C Jeff Cavender Cory Yriarte
RG Andrew Woodruff Jake Broyles
RT Dan Gore Charles Leno
Defense returned 7 Starters returns 4 who have started
DE Nick Schlekeway Samuel Ukwuachu
DE Mike T Williams Tyler Horn
DT Joe Bozikovich Michael Atkinson
DT Ian Smart Ricky Tjon-A-Tjoe
OLB Tim Brady Dextrell Simmons
MLB Kyle Gingg Tommy Smith
WSLB Daivd Shields J.C Persy
CB Kyle Wilson Jamar Taylor
CB Orlando Scandrick Jerrell Gavins
SS Austin Smith Lee Hightower
S Marty Tadman Jeremy Loane
Last comparison preseason rankings.
Coaches Ap
2006 24th 24th
2006 final results 29th 30th
2012 early preseason espn 23rd
When you look that list over I have one question for you is there more than 2 or 3 from the class of 2012 you would trade for 2007 players? And even then it’s a close call. True today we don’t know who the future team leaders on and off the field are, but what we do know is every one of those guys above has been on the same field for a year or more with that great class of 2011 living ever moment and finding themselves right in the mix in many of them. You can listen to the nay say’ers out there but that list above is anything but inexperienced, it’s a honed, highly trained and highly motivated bunch of Bronco’s!
In 2007 the team went 7-1 in the WAC only losing to Hawaii in Honolulu finished the season 10-3 with a bowl loss to ECU by 3. Many find my suggestion this team has as good as any of the last 3 years of going undefeated unrealistic, and scoff at me, but a lot of my feelings on this have to do with some sound reasoning.
Consider D.J Harper he was actually part of that 2007 team but injuries have held him back with last season his first real injury free season, and there is no way watching the TCU game you can hang anything on him for that loss, I dare say D.J. more then stepped it up for Doug Martins absences, in that you can include Cory Yriarte, Jamar Taylor, Jerrell Gavins and Gerald Boldewijn into that mix. Do not think for a minute these guys in their senior season having gone the distance with the class of 2011 do not believe they can do it and are not hard at work right now doing all they can to make that dream happen.
While fair weather fans might say well it’s going to take a year or two to rebuild and take coach Petes comments on his youtube to believe even he suspects what everyone else is saying a 11-2 season is about as good as we should expect, allow me to retort. MSU is even more depleted then us and as far as QB’s go I firmly believe why Mark Dantonio has so quickly announced his starter following Cusins is because his cupboard is bare and believes his best hope is to put the leader tag now on Maxwell.
No doubt MSU is loaded at LB they can bring the pain make no mistake but the rest of team is so depleted with truly little to no experience except at RB MSU finds itself one dimensional both defensively and offensively , any quality coaching staff is going to be able to game plan for it.
The MSU game is going to go one of two ways and both we have seen before 2008 in Eugene Or., or 2009 opening night in Boise. In the end Boise has too much talent with too much over all experience and least we forget the greatest coach in all the land!
BYU on the other hand is a much different story and I see this as the must see game of the year. A win against BYU will get the conversation going again and set the path for the rest of the year, lets all be grateful we start the new series with BYU on the blue.
Now there is lots of talk about Southern Miss but they were a one trick pony last year and that pony has left the reservation, Nevada will be a character building game back in Reno and another opportunity for this group of Bronco’s to set themselves apart from all those that have come before it. San Diego on the blue, are you kidding me, Hawaii in Honolulu? Love their new pro style game plan, so I expect travel experience will keep the team from any jet leg.
There is no reason Bronco Nation should not be just as excited for 2012 as they have been for 2011. Certainly things could go completely sideways and I’m just as prepared to ride the ride in a 5-5 season as I would be to see a 13-0 season, but today and until proven otherwise I see no reason to not reach for the stars.
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