Do the BCS Computers got you feeling down? Fear not!

Let’s be clear the Bigs can keep Boise State and or a MAC champ out of this conversation just by winning and winning in the right order UCLA beats Stanford, FSU beats Georgia Tech and Oklahoma holds court and none of what is in this would be possible.

It’s one thing to be ranked 7^th in week 14 of the BCS and everyone is looking at you only to find yourself looking from the outside in because the money rich; football little sisters of the poor B1G and ACC buy their way to into the Sugar bowl. While giving Alabama a team that didn’t just not win it conference championship but didn’t even win it’s division a place in the National Championship game, yet that same system keeping a 11-1, 7^th ranked Boise State out of the Sugar bowl.

When for 4 straight years you threaten not just the BCS bowl system but their mythical championship as well you draw the hate from the likes of Robert Smith, Mark May and some nobody also run Texas fruit cake and every other talking head at ESPN.   Week in week out we listened to these tools talk down Boise State. Today the players from those teams start and play all over the NFL only topped by the number of guys from the 2011 class. Last year’s class didn’t just find just as many slots in the NFL as Alabama I think it’s fair to say the class of 2011 is out preforming Alabama’s 2011 class lead by shoe in offensive Rookie of the Doug Martin. So where’s Mark May today and his slut buddy Brad Edwards? Where’s the “we were wrong the Boise State 2011 team was as good as anyone”?  Crickets that’s where.

Today they pass an image of Boise State across the screen while talking about Kent State; talking like fools when they say Kent state needs more than just one AQ team to loss UCLA to get the spot. Mind you Kent State is 17^th and UCLA is 16^th and it would appear with a UCLA loss to Stanford In the PAC 12 Championship game Kent State should be a Shoe in as an automatic qualifier. But they are not, not because they will be jumped by Texas but because they will be jumped Boise State and here is why.

As I had previously written http://www.theblueturf.com/2012-articles/november/greed-with-win-over-nevada-will-guaranty-a-boise-state-bcs-bowl-against-the-big-12-champ.html the BCS is a business and if there is one thing they are about is making their host cities money and last year they failed in doing so for New Orleans when they decided to jump an over ranked#13 Michigan and #11V-Tech teams over #7 Boise State and #8 KSU as I had written here http://www.theblueturf.com/2011-articles/december/michigan-to-coward-to-play-boise-state.html it was a cowardly move by the B1G to work a deal to keep both Boise State and KSU out of the game and frame up what they believed to be a sure fire money maker. In the end TV cameras were instructed not to show upper deck images of the empty spaces, both schools ended up having to pay out money because they were unable to sell their tickets and the game got the second lowest BCS TV ratings in its history. In an effort by Jim Delany to build up the B1G it completely back fired in their faces.  Karma is a bitch and the money grab efforts two years run by Jim Delany, the B1G and the Sugar bowl has left a undefeated OSU team out of the conversation; the B1G is an ugly mess with a Nebraska team over rated and more than likely going to lose to a unranked Wisconsin team. Either way what ever B1G teams plays in the Rose Bowl will be utterly destroyed. bringing further embarrassment.

While the BCS system will do anything it takes to keep a MAC school out of their bowls . Boise State has a clear path and they are getting that path because the coaches are in the know and what they know is what transpired last year. Plus there is the eye test and if there is one thing to open eyes of coaches is to see just how Boise States players are playing in the NFL then to see those who have taken their places are playing today on the Blue.

The coaches’ poll has been leading the way for Boise State and though this last week the Harris poll didn’t follow completely in suit they will come next Sunday. Boise State’s top ranked defense has been leading the way as these coaches look around the top teams in the country and wonder where has the defense gone? As any coach will tell you defense wins championships. Boise State has defense and when it comes to the eye test this is just something that computers cannot see.

Getting back to the talking heads and what they are missing besides the future losses of Texas, UCLA and Oklahoma. The computers take many things into account and one of them is games played and the last rankings have Boise State at their very lowest point following a three week stretch of playing weak teams followed by an off week Boise State. One game not being played is worse than actually playing a game and losing when it comes to many of the computers. This is why in many of the computers you find Boise State ranked behind teams they have beaten and others who have many more losses even bad losses. What Boise State needs to jump the MAC champion is actually quite simple and more than likely going to happen.

Keep in mind we need to make an assumptions here all favorites win and Boise State beats the margin of 9 points in a win over Nevada; with just this assumption of things going Boise States way in the Human Polls. One needs to remember it’s not so much about ranking as it is points and right now the points between Boise State and a 14^th ranking is great 479 to 720 that’s a huge gap. Leaving this many points on the table gives Boise State the opportunity to pick up points while maintaining its ranking. Clearly many coaches have Boise State maxed out on their ballot but just as many don’t, with a strong performance against Nevada on the road could see movement of 5 or more spots on many ballots a 5 point swing per ballot of these coaches who have Boise State ranked in the top 22-25 which I believe is about half the voters would add 150 points, then there are those who will support a movement to keep a MAC school out of a BCS game could add another 50 points this would give Boise State a total of 679 point and a BCS score of about a .425% which is .0125 more than what I believe they will need to not just get to 16^th in the BCS but stay ahead of a MAC champion

Harris poll, Boise State holds a clear lead over their MAC challengers for BCS buster and do not have as big as gap between those in front of them but they do have 2 teams in the Harris poll ahead of where the coaches do and going with history they will be moving Boise State up with the above assumptions. Considering UCLA is one of the teams they have Boise State behind and the assumed loss to Stanford we move to the Oregon State who they have up by 158 points. The good news is the Harris poll not only likes to follow the Coaches there are many more humans in it who have shown much love to Boise State over the years and there is no reason to believe if faced with a Mac champ vs. Boise State they will not vote like the hordes of demOrat voters in Philly for Boise State. I expect on Sunday to not only see Boise State to move up 2 spots but to be in the 970 point range to give them a .335%.

If we just take these to assumptions of coaches .425% a Harris .335% a current .000% computers we end up with a .2533% which today would put us ahead of Kent States .2512% and N. Illinois .1936. Certainly if Kent State was to win and Boise State saw no improvement in the computers Kent State would stay ahead of Boise State no matter how much love the humans give them. So let’s look at the computers.

First up Wolke

As you can see Wolke has both MAC schools way ahead of Boise State and while they have Kent State 16^th they have basically maxed out with a 4 loss Michigan team ahead of them. With N. Illinois at #24 I don’t see them moving up more than 4 and a loss by Kent state will send them tumbling 12 spots.

Besides a win over a 7-4 team just playing another game alone will bust Boise State add in the head to head match up’s in front of Boise State , Boise State should be able to increase their rating of 6.828 to at least 7.4 putting them somewhere near 26^th while this won’t be their worst computer ranking it will help greatly.

Jeff Sagarin computer

At 42 in this poll even Sagarin thinks it will be hard for Boise State to break deep enough into his poll to matter, but I just think he’s overlooking a couple things 1. Many of the teams directly ahead of Boise State do not play another game that alone will give Boise State a full 2.5 points. Add in a road win over a winning team might add another point and half moving Boise State from a 76.36 to 79.86. Consider Boise State lost 1 point from just not playing last week. I know his computer is predicting a win puts Boise State at 78.71 but let’s be honest here it’s a computer. Again with head to head match ups in front of them I see Boise State coming in at 28.

Colley Matrix

Currently  #36 and that’s a 6 spot up swing without even playing a game the week before that 42 and that was after a win and a previous ranking of 37? If there is one system that makes no sense it’s this one. With little to go on because this guy holds his stats close to the vest if we just look at a quality win plus the head to heads in front of us I see a #25 coming the biggest single swing in ranking for Boise State on this poll was 37 in week 4 moving Boise State from 77 to 40 the highest ranking in this poll was 22 and lowest since 42 It has violent swings across the board which I suspect reflects in the guy having a website that doesn’t function worth a crap. http://www.colleyrankings.com/rank.html

Billingsley

While we might all love this poll regardless it goes bye bye because it will be the poll that has us the highest with a current ranking of 24th I think we will peak in around 20 but again this poll will be dumped in the end.

Anderson Hester

First thoughts are wow just 15 back of a 25 then you look at the rating .603 and you realize there is some distance between the rest of the pack where .645 is require to break the top 25. Look deeper and you’ll see in an off week we actually moved up 2 spots go back to the week we lost to SDSU and you see we were at 38 with a .612 the week before it had us at 22 with a .677 which is our highest ranking in this poll. While I don’t see  Boise State with a road win over a 7-4 opponent being enough, I do see with an increase of SOS from 114 to  102  and a 10^th win getting to .645 which should result in a 27^th ranking .

Massey

http://www.masseyratings.com/rate.php?lg=cf&sub=FBS

Currently 40^th this might be the poll where Boise State see’s its greatest jump. After losing 2 spots for not playing last week even though 17 teams ranked in front of them lost; this poll seems to put more into home away, games played and wins than any other. While last week hurt this week is where the bounce comes. When you look inside the internals of this it tells Boise State just what they need to do win and win big. While it gives Boise States defense a #20^th ranking it gives the offense a #61 SOS will improve as well this week.

Rated at 1.78 the gap could easily close to 1.92 with a dominating win along with head to head matchups ahead of them could put Boise State as high as 19^th and no worse than 22.

So with computer ranks final

Wolf    Sagarin    Billngly      A&H    Massey      CM

26           28         20             27        22          25

Tossing out the highest and lowest you end up with a 25 which would result in .090

Coaches        Harris       CPU      BCS Score      BCS projected ranking

.425               .335          .090       .283                  16th