Further Into the Great Unknown for RSL Against Monterrey

Real Salt Lake are getting plenty of attention locally, nationally, and internationally for their upcoming match against Monterrey of Mexico (known as “Los Rayados”, which means the striped ones). Even Major League Soccer has produced a short video giving support from around the league.

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What does all of this mean? It means that the pressure is on! The last time the Royals had this much pressure on them was during last year’s playoffs. RSL came into the playoffs as the go-to pick to repeat as cup champs having fallen just short of winning the Supporter’s Shield and recently ending the Hoops long winning streak. The pressure got to them and they lost to FC Dallas in the first round. This is all in stark contrast to the 2009 MLS Cup campaign where nobody saw Real winning it all. They made the playoffs on the last day of the season then and were playing on house money after that. They played loose and eventually “upset” their way to an MLS cup.

So is this time any different? Yes and no. The team handled the pressure of the semi-final against Saprissa well showing maturity and composure throughout but they were playing on house money again having gone where no MLS team had gone before. While they are still in unknown territory for an MLS team the pressure has intensified through the support campaigns all over Twitter and Facebook, the aforementioned press, and just the feeling like they may actually win this thing. So what’s going to happen?

What is going to happen? The fan in me wants to say that my team will win no matter what, but the realization is that no MLS team has won in competition in Mexico and I just don’t see that changing. If RSL comes out with a 0-0 or 1-1 draw it is a victory for the Royals but I actually see it being a 2-1 result for Monterrey. Wait a minute…did this jerk just predict RSL to lose? Sure did, but I see them coming away with a result next week at Rio Tinto. Whether or not that result is enough to take the series into OT or a shootout or produce an outright win for everybody’s favorite MLS side (c’mon admit it, you’re all rooting for them!) remains to be seen. Don’t get me wrong, however, I want RSL to win; I just don’t see it happening on the road this time (remember, they actually lost the 2nd leg match at Saprissa, but still won the series on aggregate).

Here’s the reasoning for my prediction:
1. Humberto Suazo, the Chilean machine is probably going to play. He’s good… really good. RSL’s defense is good and may be able to contain a hobbled Suazo, but then again maybe not.
2. MLS teams just don’t win in Mexico: According to Brian Strauss at The Sporting News (BTW, congrats to Brian on becoming the first soccer writer in TSN history) MLS teams are 0-21-3 all time in Mexico. That just doesn’t sound good, especially for any of you who were privileged enough to watch the RSL-Cruz Azul group stages match last summer. That was one CRAZY match and just reinforced how tough it is to win in Mexico, even in a monsoon AND with a late lead.
3. Paulo Jr. is apparently out.  Though this is not a huge deal as RSL has depth at forward, Paulo Jr. has been a definite spark plug for the team. The moment he steps on the field you can feel the energy he brings to the match. He is becoming an increasingly important substitute for the team and is certainly a loss.  

So there you go! We’ll see if RSL can pull it out and merit the #MLS4RSL support they have been getting. See you tonight!

By the way, the match is live on Fox Soccer Channel at 10 PM EST and is also streaming for free on the CONCACAF website.