ONE TO START, ONE TO SIT
One to start, One to sit is a weekly column where each NFL game will be evaluated and the best/worst fantasy match-ups will be listed.
Sunday’s Match-ups
Bills @ Saints
Best Option
BUF- Fred Jackson
NO- Marques Colston
Fred Jackson’s got the backfield all to himself. Whenever Jackson’s received over 12 carries, he’s put up at least 10 fantasy points. When he receives over 15 carries, at least 14 fantasy points. Against the Saints running defense that has let up over 100 yards on the ground and 4 rushing TD’s this season, Jackson has all the potential in this matchup to produce big points. No question about it, Drew Brees is the man in this game, he’s like a different player altogether when he plays at home (averages 27.6 fantasy points in home games this year), but that’s no fun to put him here. Marques Colston on the other hand, makes perfect sense to put here in my opinion. He hasn’t had that strong of a year so far. He’s only cracked double digit fantasy points once this season and has just 1 TD. However, he remains the top dog in this matchup against the Bills who has allowed at least 1 TD to opposing WR’s in every game this year. Also include the facts that top target, Jimmy Graham, may be out of this game (only practicing once) leaving Colston as the top guy in the Saints passing game.
Worst Option
BUF- Stevie Johnson
NO- Darren Sproles
Recently the Saints have struggled against opposing offenses, with foes averaging a little more than 20 points a game, this has been mostly through the air. However,they’ve only allowed 1 opposing WR to break over 100 yards receiving against them (Alshon Jeffery). While Stevie did see 13 targets the last time he played with Lewis, the Saints secondary has been strong all year and could take Johnson out of this one, forcing Lewis to look elsewhere. Could there be a changing of the guard in the Saints backfield? Longtime mainstay, Pierre Thomas has recently seen an increase in workload due to the injury of Mark Ingram. Surprisingly, this increase has also dug into the time and productivity of Darren Sproles. In the last 2 games Thomas has seen 40 touches compared to Sproles 17. While their production has remained the same, it’s Thomas getting more carries out of the backfield while Sproles remains the passing option. Against the Bills defense who surrender a lot of rushing yards but few TD’s, Sproles lack of touches may prove to be the factor in another lackluster performance.
Cowboys @ Lions
Best Option
DAL- Jason Witten
DET- Matthew Stafford
I’m slightly confused on Dallas, last week I figured their game against Philly was going to light up the scoreboard, especially with the Cowboys losing DeMarcus Ware, but I was proven wrong completely. Against Detroit, I’m thinking the same thing, no way Dallas and Detroit’s defenses are strong enough to keep this one low scoring right?… Right?… Anyways, for Dallas, I’m going with a surprising Jason Witten to be Romo’s top target. Over the past 3 weeks, it’s been the Dez Bryant and Terrance Williams show in terms of production through the WR’s (a combined 82 fantasy points scored in the last 3 weeks), while Witten has been extremely hot/cold all year (has 2 games where he’s scored double digit fantasy points). However, lets be honest, you’re not going to bench Williams nor Bryant in this one, and Detroit is coming off a game where Cincy’s TE’s (Gresham and Eifert) had a combined over 100 yards and a TD against them. Witten is due for another big performance, and I think it comes in this game where the points may come in bunches. Since getting Calvin back, Stafford has put up top 5 QB numbers (49 fantasy points scored in the last 2 weeks). Against a Cowboy defense that is ranked 30th in yards given up in a game (292), and has given up 14 passing TD’s. I don’t see any other reason as to why Stafford shouldn’t be a must start.
Worst Option
DAL- Dallas Def
DET- Joique Bell
The Cowboys defense has scored double digits over the past 2 weeks, however, the last 3 defenses that have played against Detroit have scored the following, 10, 1, and -1. I think this is enough evidence for my case to tell you why you should look for another team defense (perhaps Oakland/Pittsburgh?) this week. Since hurting his ribs against Cleveland, Bell seems to be on the backburner in terms of touches. Over the past 3 games, Bell has not touched the ball 10 times or more, and has averaged 4 fantasy points. Reggie Bush meanwhile, has seen his time increase getting the bulk of the rushing carries, and having at least 3 receptions the past 4 games. It seems like Bell’s time as a flex option is over, and is now reduced to storage space on a roster if anything were to happen to Reggie Bush (knock on wood).
Browns @ Chiefs
Best Option
CLE- Willis McGahee
KC- Donnie Avery
This one’s hard. Can’t say Browns defense, cause the Chiefs have only turned the ball over 6 times this season. Can’t say Jordan Cameron cause the Chiefs defend against the TE extremely well. So what’s left? Willis McGahee, only because the Chiefs rank 22nd against the run, and well, there’s no excuse for Cleveland not to run the ball in this one. KC’s offense does NOT light up the scoreboard, so this could be a close game, and the Browns average 86 yards on the ground a game… Ya, this is the best I got, I apologize but someone has to be here. Obviously you’re going to see a lot of Jamaal Charles in this game, so I’ll focus on Donnie Avery as the 2nd best option. Avery’s potential relies solely on whether Dwayne Bowe plays or not. If he does, then Avery has a good chance of putting up double digit fantasy numbers. If he doesn’t, then he sees Joe Haden all game, and the Chiefs running game becomes the primary focus. For the past 2 weeks, the Browns defense has been getting eaten alive by opposing WR’s. Granted that was against Aaron Rodgers and Matthew Stafford, but Alex Smith is probably the best game manager in the NFL. He doesn’t make stupid throws, can run, and has made Donnie Avery his top receiving weapon this season. While his fantasy numbers have been poor in recent weeks (just 3 points scored in the last 2 weeks), Avery still sees the majority of Smith’s targets, and is the most trustworthy WR option on the Chiefs roster.
Worst Option
CLE- Josh Gordon
KC- Dwayne Bowe
1) Jason Campbell is at QB. While new QB’s are hard to predict, against the Chiefs defense (leads the NFL in sacks by and are tied for 3rd in interceptions) I really don’t think he’ll break 200 yards passing in this one. So the yards are limited for Gordon, 2) the ignorant Cleveland media have been on Gordon all week about his rumored trades, and are alluding that Gordon doesn’t want to be a Brown…. So that could mess with his head. Finally, (3), He has Eric Berry and Brandon Flowers to deal with in this game… Nuff said. Do I really have to say why Bowe is an awful choice in this game? Insert top opposing WR vs. Joe Haden here, plus Bowe is now a game time decision. Enough for ya?
49ers @ Jaguars (IN LONDON)
Best Option
SF- Frank Gore / Colin Kaepernick
JAX- Maurice Jones Drew
Jacksonville ranks dead last by a large margin against the run. If Kaep is gonna break out in this game, it’ll be with his running ability. Gore on the other hand should feast on this defense. It would be a shocker if Gore didn’t break 20 or more fantasy points. For as good as SF’s defense has been lately (averaged 13 points a game to opposing offenses), their running defense has not improved. Over the past 3 weeks, 41 fantasy points have been allowed by opposing lead rushers when facing the 49ers. Granted Jacksonville is in a category by it’s own in terms of how bad their offense has been. However, it does not mean that MJD could have a double digit fantasy performance. After only getting 11 touches last week (compared to the 15-20 touches a game he’s received all year), I expect the Jags to come back to leaning on him as their primary focus in their offense.
Worst Option
SF- Anquan Boldin
JAX- Justin Blackmon
The Jags have not allowed a WR to crack over 100 yards in 3 weeks. Over the past 5 games, Boldin has amassed just 32 fantasy points. The 49ers have thrown the ball 39% of the time over the past 5 weeks, against the Jags poor run defense, I fully expect Kaepernick to only have to throw the ball between 18-15 times in this one, limiting Boldin’s performance for another week. It’s no secret that Chad Henne loves throwing to Justin Blackmon, in fact the 49ers probably know that all too well. So why is he here? The 49ers defense has allowed just 4 TD’s to opposing WR’s. While they’ve been torched recently by Kendal Wright and Larry Fitzgerald, again the Jags offense is in a league of their own. There is a possibility of a shutout happening here.
Dolphins @ Patriots
Best Option
MIA- Lamar Miller
NE- Stevan Ridley
I’m getting fed up with Miller. The guy has the abilities to be a great RB, he averages 4.3 yards per carry, and has hands that could make him a receiving threat… But Miami just doesn’t use him that often. He has 3 games this season where he’s received 10 or more carries, and just 3 games where he’s gotten over 10 touches. It’s sickening. This week going up against a Pats defense that gave up over 177 yards on the ground against the Jets should give enough incentive for Miller owners to feel comfortable and start him. Nope, even as I type this I’m partially convinced that I should delete this part and put in another player (Charles Clay would be my 2nd option), but the logic is there, and I’m gonna stick with Miller at least for this week. While his carries have varied all year, Ridley has gone 2 straight weeks of double digit fantasy performances and now faces a Dolphin defense that allows the 5th most fantasy points to RB’s. Brandon Bolden still remains a factor as a change of pace/receiving down player, but Ridley should still see the bulk of the carries and be the primary rushing option in the red zone.
Worst Option
MIA- Mike Wallace
NE- Kenbrell Thompkins
Aqib Talib expects to return this week after a weeksworth of limited practices, which means, a Dolphin WR is going to get smothered in this one. Who? Mike Wallace is my guess. The Pats have shown that they refuse to let any star WR/TE beat them (Talib held Jimmy Graham to zero catches), and also show the ability that they can shut down any WR. While Wallace does remain Tannehill’s favorite target (54), if Talib is playing in this one, don’t be surprised if Gibson, Hartline, and Clay all have better days than Wallace. With Amendola, Gronk, and the constant usage of the running game in the red zone. It seems as if someone has to drop off the map in the Pats offense, my guess that someone is Thompkins. While he won’t disappear entirely (I’d imagine he’ll be this year’s version of Brandon Lloyd, meaning he’ll show up and have a big game once every 6-7 weeks), Thompkins just seems to be at the bottom of the Pats passing game totem pole.
Steelers @ Raiders
Best Option
PIT- Le’Veon Bell
OAK- Darren McFadden/ Terelle Pryor
Oakland does have a top 10 ranked rushing defense, but Le’Veon Bell seems to be gaining more and more steam as each week passes. He’s gotten at least 19 touches a game since he’s returned, and the Raiders have given up 5 Rushing TD’s in the past 4 games. Expect another healthy dose of Bell in this one. The Steeler Defense has given up 6 TD’s on the ground so far (avg 109 rushing yards a game vs opposing teams). Oakland has kept their offense balanced (52% passing, 48% rushing) this season, but should lean more towards their ground game more against the Steelers 4th ranked passing defense. Expect 25-30 carries between the RB/QB combo.
Worst Option
PIT- Heath Miller
OAK- Denarius Moore
The Raider defense hasn’t allowed a TE to score since Julius Thomas in week 3. Miller does remain a strong receiving option, but Oakland has held opposing TE’s to just 28 yards a game over the past 4 weeks. While Moore has been undervalued as a fantasy WR. He does remain Pryor’s favorite target by a good margin (has 15 more targets than anyone else on the team). However, the Steelers defense has held opponents top WR’s to an average of 68 yards a game (Jerome Simpson is the only one to top 100 yards receiving vs. the Steelers). While Moore does possess breakaway speed, the chances of him catching a deep one have got to be very slim.
Eagles @ Giants
Best Option
PHI- Michael Vick
NYG- Hakeem Nicks, Rueben Randle, Victor Cruz
Michael Vick returns this week after missing the last 2 games with a hamstring injury. This give the Eagles a nice shot in the arm in the running game, with Vick able to scramble and create plays that Foles couldn’t. The Giants rank in the lower 20s in both Passing and Running defense, so chances are Vick will have a nice return game and is a great bye week filler for any team. If we’re judging by last time these 2 teams met, Nicks will get you the yards, Randle will get you the TD’s, and Cruz will take a giant dump on your team and get fed the scraps. But we’re not going by last game are we? Nope. What I will look at is Manning’s passing attempts and yards (52 attempts for 334 yards). This game has the potential for a shootout, and the Eagles passing defense is not really strong. While Nicks and Cruz seem to be effecting each other when it comes to performance (either one will be great and the other will be terrible, or they’ll both put up mediocre numbers), Randle has been the most productive fantasy WR for the past 3 weeks, scoring 4 TD’s (2 against Philly) and has averaged 4 catches for 70 yards in that span. Any one of these guys can break out and have a monster game, but unfortunately, all are starters.
Worst Option
PHI- Eagles Defense
NYG- Peyton Hillis
The streak is over! Eli has finally gone a game without turning the ball over. In their last meeting, the Eagles defense scored 8 points in standard leagues while forcing 4 turnovers. The problem is, the Giants offense, while hot/cold all year, is still dangerous enough to turn this game into a shootout. If you’re starting the Eagles D in this one, you may have to rely on a TD to get your points into the double digits. While he did have a decent return against the Vikings, he managed only 2 yards per carry on 18 attempts, while the only highlights came of his 5 catches for 45 yards. Hillis will be splitting time with Michael Cox this week with Brandon Jacobs once again sidelined, and could be playing for a contract in this one (David Wilson and Andre Brown are due back any time now). Obviously Hillis is the RB you want for the Giants, but that’s not saying much. The Giants running game has been pretty awful all year (sans the game vs. Chicago), and against the Eagles 12th best running defense, I wouldn’t expect big numbers for Hillis in this one. He’s a flex option at best in PPR leagues.
Falcons @ Cardinals
Best Option
ATL- Tony Gonzalez
ZONA- Carson Palmer
Arizona is terrible defending against TE’s. In 7 games, they’ve given up an average of 92 yards and have surrendered SEVEN TD’s to opposing TE’s (that’s including 3 games against Seattle, Tampa Bay, and Detroit who don’t use their TE’s as often).With Harry Douglas providing enough of a threat to possibly take Patrick Peterson off of Gonzo and onto him, Tony should continue the trend of TE’s that have feasted on this defense. With 6 teams on the bye this week, Carson Palmer could prove to be a very smart option at QB. Atlanta’s defense averages 267 yards through the air a game, and have given up 14 passing TD’s this season. While Palmer’s turnover issues have been a problem lately (hasn’t gone a game without throwing an INT this season), he still has gone the last 2 weeks with double digit fantasy performances. With Atlanta’s offense being able to put up points, Arizona should have to rely on Palmer to move the chains.
Worst Option
ATL- Steven Jackson
ZONA- Andre Ellington
Both Atlanta and Arizona post very good front 7’s, with a combined 5 rushing TD’s given up all season. Steven Jackson returns this week after missing the last several games with a hamstring injury. However, in his time missed, fellow RB, Jacquizz Rodgers has proved to be a very valuable comity in the Falcons offense (he’s scored 4 TD’s and has averaged 17 fantasy points a week in Jackson’s absence). So my guess is Rodgers is still going to see enough touches this week as Atlanta eases Jackson back into action, enough where he’ll limit Jackson to maybe 15 touches in this one. All signs are pointing for Ellington to be a huge factor in this game. Fellow RB’s Rashad Mendenhall is out, and his backup, Alfonso Smith hasn’t seen more than 10 carries since week 1. So why is Ellington here? Same reason as Jackson, limited touches. The Cardinals have stated they plan on limiting Ellington’s touches due to “durability issues that had plagued him in college” (ROTOWIRE.COM). So chances are you’ll be seeing Alfonso Smith and Stepfan Taylor in this game more than you would like.
Jets @ Bengals
Best Option
NYJ- Jeremy Kerley / Steven Hill
CIN- Jermaine Gresham / Tyler Eifert
I have no idea. That is my answer to any and all Jets running back questions. Furthermore, I know I have Geno as my worst option, but Kerley and Hill seem to have a stranglehold on the Jets receiving game (with the exception of Jeff Cumberland at this point). With a combined 30 targets over the past 2 games, and against a Bengals defense that’s allowed 573 yards and 3 TD’s to opposing WR’s over the past 2 weeks. Both Hill and Kerley could be sneaky options going into this week. The Jets have struggled with TE’s lately. Heath Miller, Rob Gronkowski, Tony Gonzalez, and even Scott Chandler have scored 8 or more fantasy points off of this defense. With AJ Green being an obvious starter, this matchup looks pretty good for TE’s Gresham and Eifert. Obviously Eifert has eaten into Gresham’s numbers, but that’s not to say Eifert has been worthless. In fact, with last week’s TD (first TD to a CINCY TE this year), Eifert has now scored more fantasy points than Grasham. Anyways, both these guys are viable pass options for Dalton, (they both average 4-5 targets a game). Against the Jets secondary, both Eifert and Greaham could be the leaders in receiving for Cincy.
Worst Option
NYJ- Geno Smith
CIN- Giovani Bernard / BenJarvis Green-Ellis
Numbers don’t lie, and I’m going to ride this stat until it changes. Geno has been an amazing fantasy player in any odd number week. In even number weeks. He’s been terrible (look it up, it’s the strangest stat line I’ve ever seen). So this being week 8, Geno goes here, no logic at all behind it, just the stat I’ve previously mentioned. The Jets are allowing just 3 yards per carry to opposing running backs. While Law Firm and Bernard continue to eat at each other’s time (With Bernard still putting up solid numbers), I can’t endorse either one of these players this week. The Bengals may have shifted over to a run first offense, but if they’re going to put up points in this game, it’ll be through the passing game. If you’ve gotta choose one of these two, Bernard is still a factor in the passing game, so I’d go with him, otherwise, keep your expectations low for these two running backs.
Redskins @ Broncos
Best Option
WASH- Pierre Garcon / Jordan Reed
DEN- Everyone not named Ronnie Hillman, Montee Ball
Garcon has double the targets of any fellow WR/TE on Washington’s roster. So it doesn’t seem to matter if he’s covered or not, RG3 is going to give Garcon at least 87 targets in this game. Jordan Reed on the other hand, could be a nice sleeper play in this game. He’s averaged at least 50 yards in his last 3 games played, and proved me wrong last week with his best game of the season, a 9 catch, 134 yard and a TD gem against the Bears. Denver has struggled lately against pass catching TE’s (Jason Witten and Colby Fleener both scored against this defense), and Reed could continue his upswing in this game. Washington ranks 29th against the run, and 22nd against the pass. Unless you own Ronnie Hillman, and Montee Ball, there is no reason for you to bench any offensive Denver player.
Worst Option
WASH- Alfred Morris
DEN- Demaryius Thomas
We can go with the same old story, that Denver’s running defense ranks #1 and has shut down any RB this season. Or we could try something new. No opposing RB has rushed over 70 yards in Denver. LeSean McCoy, MJD, Ray Rice, McFadden, Terelle Pryor,all held to under 73 yards rushing. While McCoy, MJD, and Rice did find success in their receiving yards, Morris is not a pass catching running back. Furthermore, Mike Shannahan has thrown in Roy Helu every now and then, further proving the fact that no RB should ever be taken in the 1st round of any fantasy draft if he plays under Mike Shannahan. Morris is going to have his hands full on Sunday, while he probably won’t be benched unless some of you have a lot of good options on your team, it’s smart to just lower your expectations on this one. An interesting stat on Thomas, while he’s second on Denver in receiving yards, he has only broken 100 yards once this season. He’s also scored in just 3 games (has 5 TDs). Take away those three games, Thomas is averaging 6.5 fantasy points a week. Kinda surprising isn’t it? However, we live in reality, and Thomas is averaging 13 points a week. Against the Redskins defense, who rank 22nd against the pass. I can’t fully say that Thomas is going to be not as productive as Welker, Julius Thomas, or Decker. There’s no stat I can give you to back that up. I’m just going with my gut feeling on this one.
Packers @ Vikings
Best Option
GB- Jarrett Boykin
MIN- Christian Ponder
Rodgers, Jordy, and Lacy remain the top options, however, in just 1 week Boykin has moved himself from irrelevancy to WR #2 consideration. The injuries to James Jones, Randall Cobb, and Jermichael Finley have played a huge part in Boykins emergence, but it was his 8 catch, 103 yard and a td outing against the Browns last week that has put him here. The Vikings pass defense has already given up a 2nd worst 14 passing TD’s, and while the majority of the targets will probably go Nelson and Boykins way, it gives him another chance at a breakout performance. While Josh Freeman has been sidelined this week, it gives Christian Ponder another chance at the starting QB job against a Packers defense that is struggling with injuries. You wouldn’t have known it last week with Brandon Weeden’s performance, but surprisingly, I feel Ponder is a better QB than Weeden (and Freeman. Seriously Vikings what are you thinking? When has bringing in a new QB mid season ever helped a team?). This is obviously good news for Greg Jennings and Jerome Simpson who have produced some pretty good numbers with Ponder under center. Throw in Ponder’s running ability, and you got yourself a sneaky option at QB this week.
Worst Option
GB- Green Bay Defense
MIN- Greg Jennings
While defenses have averaged double digit points against the Vikings with Ponder starting at QB. The way AP has manhandled the Packers defense over the past years (over 1600 yards, 10 TD’s in the last 12 games vs GB). I don’t see the Packers pulling a Giants defense and shutting out the Vikings (did I really just say that?). There’s no way Minnesota is ignorant enough to let their QB throw for 50 times again, and let AP just have 13 carries. Expect a huge dose of Peterson in this game, and expect the Vikings to put enough points up on the board to keep the Packers defensive points low. Do you think there’s bad blood here? Cause I think there’s some bad blood here. Before the season began, Greg Jennings made comments about Rodgers, indicating that he put himself above the team, and that he has some prima-donna qualities. Recently, Jennings has apologized and downplayed the comments as just joking around. I really think the only value Jennings has is if he scores a TD, but that hasn’t happened with Ponder under center, and personally, I think it’s the last thing the Packers secondary will want to happen in this game.
Seahawks @ Rams
Best Option
SEA- Russell Wilson
STL- Zac Stacy
Even though he’s behind a weak o-line (Wilson’s been sacked 20 times), his matchup against the Rams could provide a huge scoring opportunity. Unlike last season where the Rams ranked in the top 5 in sacks, this season their D-Line ranks 16th in sacks and are on the bottom half of passing yards per game (247). The Rams have also gone 6 straight games of letting up at least 30 points. Granted Lynch will be the focal point in the offense, Russell Wilson could prove to have the better fantasy day with his running ability and the Seahawks willingness to let him throw more often (Wilson has had at least 29 passing attempts in the past 3 games). Is Stacy going up against the 5th best running defense in the NFL? Yes, why is he here? Because he’s the best thing going for the Rams, and is the safest bet on their offense. Since he’s started, Stacy has averaged 4.2 yards per carry, and has averaged a little over 9 fantasy points a week. Against the Seahawks I’d expect a healthy workload with a possibility of a TD, but don’t expect a huge outing.
Worst Option
SEA- Percy Harvin
STL- Kellen Clemens
Harvin has been considered doubtful for this week’s game although he remains day to day. Also, Seattle WR’s are like playing fantasy whack a mole, you never know who’s going to be the guy Wilson loves to target in each matchup. New QB Kellen Clemens makes his first start this season against the 2nd best fantasy defense against the pass. What a hell of a way to kick things off. The only fantasy positive out of this if Clemens keeps the starters job throughout the season is the potential of the Rams seeing a breakout WR instead of the targeting cluster Sam Bradford left behind (Jared Cook, Chris Givens, Austin Pettis, and Tavon Austin all lead the Rams in targets with 40-46 targets). However against the Seahawks defense, (23 sacks, 11 ints), unless Clemens is the only QB left in the waiver wire, and your qb is on a bye, and you’re losing going into Monday night, there’ s no reason for you to start him.
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