I’ll be honest, I’ve kinda been dreading this one. Its clear that despite the Yankees effectively limitless resources that they are the second best team (at best) in baseball’s best division and its time I admit it. The Red Sox have a deeper lineup and a stronger pitching staff, especially in the starting rotation. It seems that the best case scenario for New York this year is holding off the Rays, Jays, Angels, White Sox, and Tigers and winning the AL wild card.
Projected Lineup: (The way it should be, and hopefully will be)
- Brett Gardner (LF)
- Derek Jeter (SS)
- Mark Teixeria (1B)
- Alex Rodriguez (3B)
- Robinson Cano (2B)
- Nick Swisher (RF)
- Jorge Posada (DH)
- Curtis Granderson (CF)
- Russell Martin (C)
Projected Rotation:
- CC Sabathia
- Phil Hughes
- AJ Burnett
- Ivan Nova
- Freddy Garcia
- Bartolo Colon
Strengths:
Lineup: Just because the lineup is not as strong as Boston’s doesn’t mean its not a strength of the team. The Yankees will score runs. Gardner provides speed at the top and if Jeter can regain his Hall of Fame form, there will be runners on base for heart of the order. Texiera, Rodriguez and Cano are three of the best RBI men in the game. A-Rod has over 1800 career RBI and Tex has had at least 100 every year since 2004. The bottom of the order is also deep. Nick Swisher has hit 29 HRs in each of the past 2 seasons and hit a career best .288 last year, don’t expect him to have an average that high again. Along with Posada (who I’ll get to later), Russell Martin is a 2 time All-Star and Curtis Granderson is an All-Star in his own right and a 2 time 20-20 player who ended the season strong last year.
Cano: Robinson Cano has become one of the premier players in the Major Leagues. He’s coming off of a season in which he hit .319 with a career best 29 HRs and 109 RBIs and won a Gold Glove. Cano is a superstar and this year he’ll prove it. Last season he batted fifth primarily but filled in hitting cleanup or third if A-Rod or Teixeira got an off day and hit well. Many times last season he was the most dangerous hitter in the order and when he gets hot, look out. Robby is heading into his 28 year old season and should knock 30 homers this year and get his third consecutive 200 hit season and contend for the batting title. There isn’t a team in the majors who Cano would not be an upgrade for. Take note of this guy.
Bullpen: Like all teams, the Yankees have some questions in the bullpen, most notably Demaso Marte and Joba Chamberlian who took the team and city by storm when he came up in 2007 and then again in 2008 but hasn’t been the same pitcher since the Yankees tried to make him a starter (not to mention those damn midges), but the ‘pen for New York is strong and anchored by the best ever, Mariano Rivera. David Robertson is only 5’10” but has a 7’ stride and really good velocity. Robertson struggled early in 2010 and finished with a 4-5 record but had a 3.82 ERA, which was only slightly higher than his 3.30 the year before, and ended the year pitching well and finally showing some real consistency. Although they lost Kerry Wood to the Cubs in free agency, the Yankees signed Rafael Soriano, the 2010 AL leader in saves with 45, to be their set up man. After pitching with the Rays, Soriano is proven in the cut-throat AL East and will be a valuable piece. Pedro Feliciano is a very effective lefty specialist. Of course, the closer is Mariano Rivera, the best in the business and a man who has shown little signs of aging with a 1.80 ERA and 33 saves in 2010. (By the way, I’ve met Mo and he is a really great guy. His restaurant, Mo’s New York Grill, in New Rochelle, NY is highly recommended.)
Weaknesses:
Starting Rotation: This one wasn’t hard to figure out, the Yankees’ rotation is in shambles. With the retirement of Andy Pettitte and Cliff Lee’s decision to sign with the Phillies, the Yankee’s are left with CC Sabathia, Phil Hughes, and AJ Burnett from last year’s rotation. Sabathia is a true ace (who can opt out after this year, by the way, something I’m sure we’ll cover as the season progresses) and Hughes was an All-Star and 18 game winner last year but showed serious signs of fatigue when he got over 100 innings last year and is anything but a sure thing this season. AJ Burnett had an awful year in 2010 going 10-15 with a 5.26 ERA and is wildly erratic, seeming to have an equal chance of throwing a 2 hitter or giving up 10 in the first every time out. Despite the fact that he is not worth even a third of the $16.5 million the Yankees are going to pay him this year, Burnett will be the third starter. Ivan Nova has pitched well this spring and has earned a spot in the rotation despite having only 7 major league starts. Nova is an unproven commodity but the Yankees are forced to expect a lot out of him. As if it wasn’t hairy enough, the fifth spot is being fought over by 2 washed up old guys, Bartolo Colon and Freddy Garcia. Garcia is 34 and hasn’t had an ERA under 4.20 since 2005. Colon is 38 and hasn’t thrown more than 100 innings since 2005, winning only 14 games in that span. Both have actually pitched well this spring and Garcia should start the year in the rotation with Colon in the bullpen.
Storylines:
Jeter: Derek Jeter had the worst season of his career last year, hitting only .270. It was only the 4th time he’s hit below .300 in his long and illustrious career (excluding his first year, 1995). Can Jeter return to form or was last year the beginning of the end for the Yankee captain?
A very similar question can be asked about Rodriguez, who also hit .270 in an injury plagued 2010.
When will Jesus Montero be ready to contribute to the big club and how will he perform? All reports say the kid can hit. When do we get to find out?
I really don’t like Jorge Posada. I think he’s very overrated I don’t like the Yankees’ commitment to him as the DH. They stuck with him for far too long behind the plate, way after he became a defensive liability. I think its time to move on from Jorgey.
Prediction:
88- 74, 2nd Place, AL East. The Yankees won’t be able to catch the Sox but they’ll hold off the Rays for second in the division and win the wild card. The offense will adequately compensate for the lack of pitching depth. Their second title in three years is not on the horizon, though, as I don’t see them being able to beat both Boston and Philly in short series unless something hugely unexpected happens in the rotation.
Bold Prediction:
- Robinson Cano is your 2011 AL batting champion, hitting .335.
- AJ Burnett once again has an ERA above 5.00.
- Phil Hughes comes back to earth a little, winning 15 games and having an ERA right around 4.50.
- The Yankees acquire a big time starting pitcher half way through the season. Sean predicted Francisco Liriano and I’ll stick with that.
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