The Blue Jays would at least be in the conversation as a contender in any other division in baseball. In the super-stacked AL East, however, where the 89 win Red Sox finished 3rd, they will likely be a fourth place team. They should watch out though as the improved Orioles are not too far behind.
GM Alex Anthopoulos spent the winter wheeling and dealing, locking up slugger Jose Bautista for 5 years, trading young pitcher Shaun Marcum for some talent and dumping overpriced outfielder Vernon Wells. The semi-new look Blue Jays are definitely poised to make some moves from the personnel perspective as they have very little money committed over the next few years. How that will help them in 2011 remains to be seen.
Projected Lineup:
- Rajai Davis (CF)
- Yunel Escobar (SS)
- Jose Bautista (LF)
- Adam Lind (1B)
- Aaron Hill (2B)
- Travis Snider (RF)
- Juan Rivera (DH)
- Edwin Encarnacion (3B)
- JP Arencibia (C)
Starting Rotation:
- Ricky Romero
- Brandon Morrow
- Brett Cecil
- Kyle Drabek
- Jesse Litsch
- Mark Rzepczynski
Strengths:
Power: I definitely don’t expect Jose Bautista to put up the kind of home run totals he had last year when he mashed 54 HRs, demolishing his previous career best of 16, but he’ll definitly hit around 25 or 30 if he stays healthy. Young catcher JP Arencibia has hit for power in the minors and is expected to launch more than a few this year as the everyday catcher. The rest of the lineup has some definite pop as well, three of the other starters, Lind, Hill and Encarnacion has at least 20 HRs last season and should again. Even leadoff man Rajai Davis, who hit only 3 HRs last year but stole 50 bases for Oakland, has been working with hitting coach Dwayne Murphy and has blasted 5HRs this spring.
Youth (especially in the Rotation): Despite the departure of Shaun Marcum, the Jays have a good young core of starters. (Marcum even helped them in this category by netting them AA 3B Brett Lawrie from Milwaukee who ha looked great this spring and may even make the big club.) The current rotation features a 26 year old ace, two more 26 year olds, a 25 year old and 23 year old Kyle Drabek who was acquired in the Halladay deal and should be a stud.
Weaknesses:
Consistency at the plate/ reliability: In addition to his massive homer totals last year Bautista posted a career best .260 AVG. He shouldn’t be expected to replicate that number. 2B Aaron Hill had a superb year in 2009 posting 36 HRs, 108 RBI, and a .286 AVG but hit only .205 last year and hit 10 fewer homers and had 40 fewer RBI. Which Hill will show up in 2011? The Blue Jays hit a ton of homers last year, they led the majors with 257 bombs, but there was rarely anyone on when they hit them. In fact, the highest 2010 average among the Blue Jays projected starters is the .284 hit by Davis with the A’s last year. Rough.
They’re just not that good: This team is pretty consistent from top to bottom, all their guys put up pretty similar numbers and are capable Major Leaguers but they aren’t that good. The “best” player on the team is Bautista but I think last year was fluke and he’ll turn back into a .240 hitter with around 20 HRs. The rest of the offense is made up of .250 or so hitters with some pop. No big deal. As far as the pitching staff goes, the bullpen is pretty good but we won’t find out if the starters are for real for another year or two. This team has no superstar, no big draw, no focal point. That is one of the things that separates them from Boston, New York, and Tampa.
Storylines:
Bautista: Will Jose Bautista replicate his awesome 2010 campaign when he led the majors with 54 HRs? (No)
Money: The Blue Jays dumped Alex Rios and his monster salary on the White Sox in 2009 and dropped Vernon Well’s inflated contract on the Angels this offseason. They have very little money committed after this year and should be able to go after some big time free agents (assuming they’ll want to play in Canada).
Prospects: The Blue Jays have 7 players in Keith Law’s Top 100 prospects including two who should start the year in the pro’s.
Prediction:
81-81, 4th place, AL East. This team isn’t that bad but really isn’t very good either. They can’t compete with the top three teams in the East and will finish 4th at best. Their season hinges on Aaron Hill and Jose Bautista offensively and Ricky Romero pitching wise. Can Hill make up for the inevitable decline in Bautsita’s productivity or will he struggle to keep his average above the Mendoza Line again? Can Romero guide the pitching staff or will it disintegrate without Marcum?
Bold Prediction:
- Jose Bautista hits .233 with 23 HRs and 85 RBI
- Kyle Drabek has an ERA of 3.00 this season
- Brett Lawrie breaks into the majors in June and hits .295 with 10 HRs
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