Watch out for the….

Today’s post will be divided into two sections: The contenders, surprise teams you have to keep an eye on if your the Phillies, Red Sox, Yankees etc, and the has-beens, teams that looked like they might have a chance but are now fading away. Without further ado:

Watch out for the…..

Pittsburgh Pirates: The Pirates are fresh off a series win against the mighty Red Sox and are a game over .500, sitting in third place in the NL Central. They’ve pitched well, something they failed to do in recent years and have a good, young offense led by Andrew McCutchen. That’s the good news. The bad news is that Pittsburgh doesn’t rank higher than 23rd in the league in any major team offensive category and that, looking ahead,  after a pretty manageable July, they finish the month at home against St. Louis and then in Atlanta and Philly. Overall, the Pirates have shown us something this season and I expect them to put it all together and be a legitimate part of the conversation, next year.

Tampa Rays: The Rays are only 2 games out in the AL East after winning 8 of their last 10 and 4 in a row. James Shields is making his case for Cy Young consideration after throwing 3 straight complete games and lowering his ERA to 2.29. There are rumbles about the Rays being interested in dealing BJ Upton at the deadline and, although at first glance that may look like a seller’s move, I think its a good idea. Upton never really lived up to the hype and this season he’s hitting only .228. Yes, he leads the team in HRs and RBI but Evan Longoria is the anchor of the lineup and the Rays could use Upton to get some young power in return. Also, Upton’s departure would open the door for Desmond Jennings, the highly touted outfield prospect whose hitting .280 with 10 HRs and 14 steals in AAA, to finally break in. You know who’d be a good fit for Bossman Junior Upton (that’s his real name, really)? The Phillies.

Say goodbye to the….

Cleveland Indians: I’ve been down on the Indians all season and recently they’ve been doing a good job to prove me right. Since May 23 when they had a 7 game lead in the AL Central, Cleveland is 10-21 and now trails the Detroit Tigers by a game. The Indians are fresh off a sweep at the hands of Giants where they proved their offense isn’t much behind shortstop Asrubal Carbrera. Grady Sizemore continues to struggle, Shin Soo Choo is out with a broken bone in his hand, and Travis Hafner hits when he’s healthy but can’t manage to stay in the lineup. Lou Marson is not the starting catcher on a team with any real aspirations. Also, Fausto Carmona pitched well last night in SF but by all indications he had to to keep his job in the rotation. The Indians deficiencies have finally caught up with them and they’ll continue to fall closer to the .500 mark.

Arizona Diamondbacks: The D’backs have been another surprise this season, hanging tough in the NL West mostly on the strength of their young pitching. This month, however, they’ve been treading water at 12-11 and the Giants now have a 1.5 game lead in the division. The Dbacks have a good road record which bodes well for them and the Rockies, Dodgers, and Padres aren’t going to make any credible moves towards the top of the standings (yes, I grouped the Rockies in there) so Arizona may stay solidly in second place but that doesn’t mean they’ll contend. Daniel Hudson has been great this year ( he’s won 9 of his last 10 decisions and has a 3.58 ERA) and has proven he’s the real deal but I’m not sure if I trust rookie Josh Collmenter to keep up his success into the second half. Same goes for Ian Kennedy, can he sustain a sub-3 ERA? On offense, only Justin Upton is batting over .300 and he and Chris Young carry the load. If either one gets hurt or goes into a multi-game slump, this team is sunk. Overall, the Dbacks are much better than the Indians (we’ll get to see for sure as they play each other now) but too much has to go exactly right for them to have a chance.

–Max Frankel