The 2012 Nats? Very Good

I almost stopped in Hagerstown tonight to watch the Hagerstown Suns (Single A affiliate) play and was even more tempted by the Thirsty Thursday promotion going on at The Municipal Stadium.  Alas, it was not in the cards on this night but, in perusing the roster I noticed Strasburg was still down there and it got me thinking about next years Major League Nationals.   I don’t think the general public knows just how good this club might be, but they remind me ALOT of the Tampa Bay Rays before the 2008 season.  Let’s a take a look at the 2012 Nats and although this may be an excersise about as insane as predicting the 2020 Presidential election, it could prove useful in showing how awesome I am about a year from now.

Any conversation about the future of the Nats starts with Stephen Strasburg’s elbow and Bryce Harper’s maturation.  Suffice it to say, I’m huge believers in both.  Strasburg is back pitching in Hagerstown and should be more than ready to go for 2012.  Don’t expect to see him throwing for the Nats this year as he will be brought back slowly.  Remember, this is a guy who struck out 92 in 68 Major League innings last year and had a 2.91 ERA.  Even if he’s not that dominating force, he can still be a legitimate Ace for a playoff team.  As for Mr. Harper?  Bryce is a kid who has done nothing but produce since gracing the cover of Sports Illustrated at age 16.  People have been saying he’s not that good for the past two years.  The problem is, he has been that good.  He won the Golden Spikes award (college baseball’s best hitter) while doubling his schools HR record, then he finished up with a .343 batting average, .410 on-base percentage and .629 slugging percentage in the Arizona Fall League.  Now he’s hitting .297 with 17 HR across A-AA.  For recent comparison Jason Heyward played across A-AAA the year before his callup.  Harper is positioned for a May callup next season.

But, I’m sure most of you already knew all that and, those two prospects surely cannot compete with the Braves and Phillies.  However, the 2011 version of the Nats, sans Strasburg and Harper are currently in third in the NL East and right around .500.  They have a lineup that boasts Michael Morse’s .919 OPS, rookie 2B Danny Espinosa’s 18 HR, near superstar Ryan Zimmerman, and the $126 MM man Jayson Werth.  Add in a free agent center fielder and Harper and this is a lineup without any real holes.

As for the pitching, well the outlook is a little less awesome.  Livan Hernandez is the most notable starter for the Nats and seems on pace for his standard 200 IP, 4.40 ERA, and leading the league in Hits allowed.  At $1 MM a year, I like Livan for any team.  Jordan Zimmerman is the bright spot for these guys.  Most baseball people like him as it’s hard not to like a 25 year old with a 3.10 ERA.  Say they make a trade for a young pitcher with some upside (like James McDonald was this year) or an Edwin Jackson type guy who excels in DC, the rotation could be very good with Strasburg sitting up top.

As for the bullpen?  It’s completely set. Drew Storen (23) has 34 saves and Tyler Clippard (26) has a 1.54 ERA

OK, so for the comparison to the 2008 Rays we have a young team with a pretty good offense and a couple good young starters.  The Nats just need another good starter (Chin Ming Wang perhaps?) and I believe they’d be in the conversation for NL Wild Card in 2012.  The argument is simple.  They have so many good pieces in place…. How could it not work?

Well… Ask the Cubs about that….

-Sean Morash