Angels Blew It With Backloaded Pujols Deal

Reports have surfaced in the last 24 hours or so about the details of Albert Pujols’ 10 year $250+ million contract with the Angels. Apparently, in an effort to free up enough cash for the Angels to sign pitcher CJ Wilson, Pujols agreed to a heavily backloaded contract which will pay him “only” about $12 mil next season increasing to something north of $30 mil for the last season or two of the deal. The decision to structure the deal that way was absolutely the wrong move.

I understand the motivations for backloading this deal and on the surface they make a lot of sense. First, with the freed up money the Angels inked Wilson, a stud left hander and arguably the best pitcher on the market this winter. Wilson finished 6th in the Cy Young voting, had a 2.94 ERA and threw more than 230 innings last season. Best of all, the Angels poached him from division rival Texas. It was absolutely a good move to add CJ to a rotation that already includes Jared Weaver, Dan Haren, and Ervin Santana. The second motivation for the backloaded deal was likely the expiring or soon to be expiring major contracts on the roster. Torii Hunter is entering the final year of a 5 year-$90 million deal and Vernon Wells is entering the 5th of  a 7 year contract worth a total of $126 million with $63 mil remaining on it. While the Angels obviously have to pay those monster salaries now (including $9 mil to Bobby Abreu for some reason), in a few years, the idea is, those contracts will be off the books and they can afford to give Prince Albert his money. I get that. I get the CJ Wilson thing too. They both make sense. Backloading the deal was still really really stupid. Here’s Why:

Albert Pujols is just about guaranteed to hit .310 this season with about 40 homers and  close to 115 RBI. At the very least, he’s more of a guarantee to do that than any player in baseball history. He’s a one man offense. But he is slightly above 30 years old (we don’t know exactly how far above, but he’s definitely not 29). That was really the only knock on him going into this winter and the reason that a bunch of dumb people put Prince “I can’t find a job not because I’m bad but because I have a terrible agent who thinks I’m God’s gift to hitting” Fielder above him in free agent rankings. While I think that Pujols might be the best hitter ever, I have no doubt he’ll eventually regress. I’d be willing to suspect that unless he really is a machine, Albert will stop hitting 35 homers a year right about the time he starts making about $28 million a year (then 29, then 30…) This has two major ramifications:

1. The Fans: In all deals of this size, the fans, who probably make in a year what Albert makes in a couple games, kind of just grin and bear it. They don’t really like when players make that much money but it’s all worth it if the player produces. No body complained when A-Rod won an MVP and hit 52 homers but now that he’s an average MLB player (and he better have a big year this year) his $25+mil salary seems exorbitant. The same will happen with Pujols. No one will remember the monster year he had when making $12 million, just the average season he had when making 30. The fans will not be happy, just like in the A-Rod situation.

2. The Team: Now, Pujols really doesn’t need a whole ton of help. Albert, plus Hunter, Abreu, Wells, Trumbo, Trout etc makes a pretty formidable team. In 8 years when Albert has become just a “normal” player, he’ll likely need some help in the lineup. I don’t think that’s an unreasonable assumption. As he ages and his production declines, he will need another big bat to carry the load. Fine, not an issue. Or at least it wouldn’t be if the Angels weren’t paying Albert $30 mil a season. How can they afford another big bat with that contract on the roster? It won’t be easy.

The way to solve these major problems? Front load the deal. All the money’s guaranteed anyway. Dig deep into owner Arte Moreno’s pockets to pay for Wilson and the next three seasons now and it’ll be worth it later. By front loading the contract you pay for the production your getting. At the end of the contract, when the production isn’t what it is today, no one can complain you are paying $12 mill for it. Also, if your not paying an arm and a leg you can afford to supplement your lineup in a way that now the Angels can’t.

By front loading the Albert Pujols contract, the Angels guarantee themselves a shot at a championship now with the good team that they have but also a chance to win it in each of the next 10 years as Albert gets less and less expensive and other stars can be continuously add around him. In the long run, it could have been a dynasty and a perennial money maker. Instead, the Angels backloaded the contract and it will come back to bite them.

-Max Frankel