Season Preview Baltimore Orioles

The Baltimore Orioles went through a major front office makeover this offseason with Team President Andy MacPhail being replaced by new GM Dan Duquette. Duquette brings a long and successful resume with him to Camden Yards but once again the O’s front office proved dysfunctional as they failed to get their act together in time to do anything in the free agent market other than pick over the scraps other teams left behind. Moreover, they recently completed a puzzling trade that sent arguably their best pitcher to the Rockies for two lesser players who make more money. They head into 2012 as the least talented team in the uber competitive AL East. With young “stars” failing to live up to their billing and not much on the horizon, there really isn’t much to be excited about in Baltimore.

Projected Lineup:

1. Brian Roberts (2B)
2. Nolan Reimold (LF)
3. Adam Jones (CF)
4. Nick Markakis (RF)
5. Matt Weiters (C)
6. Wilson Betemit (DH)
7. Mark Reynolds (3B)
8. J.J. Hardy (SS)
9. Chris Young (1B)

Projected Rotation:

• Tommy Hunter
• Zach Britton
• Brian Matusz
• Jason Hammel
• Jake Arrieta

Strengths:

The O’s starting lineup really is pretty good. At the very least, it’s pretty deep. If J.J. Hardy plays like he did last year and Mark Reynolds can put the ball in play enough to hit 25 HRs they might have some decent pop. The heart of  the order is strong but only if Jones and Weiters can play to their potential. Markakis is one of the most consistent and consistently underrated players in the MLB.  The issue will be whether or not they can score enough runs to back up their atrocious pitching staff.

The organization’s selling point for the last few years has been it’s talented young core. It’s still entirely intact. Problem is, it isn’t really all that young anymore (Markakis and Jones are both entering their 7th seasons) and the group has yet to produce the perennial All Stars and superstars we were  promised.

Weaknesses:

The Orioles’ pitching staff is terrible. Jeremy Guthrie led the AL  in losses last season but was still better than the meager haul they got for him from Colorado.  Brian Matusz was supposed to be the lynchpin of the staff for years to come but, as written here, he had a terrible 2011 season. Zach Britton has shown promise, but he still had an ERA north of 4.6 last year, and I guess he’s going to be the Opening Day starter. The rotation is bad.

So is the bullpen. Kevin Gregg is going to have to beat out new import Matt Lindstrom for the closers job but neither of them strikes fear into the heart of any opponent.

Random veterans still fill out the roster. Can you name one team that strategy has worked for? I can’t. Last year it was Valdimir Guerrero and Mark Reynolds, this year its Wilson Betemit and Reynolds. When will they figure out that throwing a few million at an aging player with holes in his game every winter isn’t the way to improve.

Storylines:

Can Brian Roberts stay healthy? The former All-Star has played a total of 98 games over the past 2 seasons due to a concussion and Robert Andino is his likely backup. Though Andino tore apart the Red Sox in last year’s final series, he’s not a guy the team wants as their everyday second basemen. If Roberts is in the lineup, the team is much better.

Will Adam Jones be on the team at the end of the season? Adam Jones is quickly entering BJ Upton territory, a player with nearly limitless upside and potential who has failed to live up to any of it. Jones is a career .275 hitter with 44 steals and 75 homers in 6 seasons. Rumors have swirled since the trade deadline in July about the O’s possibly moving Jones and at this point, he might have more value as a trade chip than he does on the field.

When will the O’s figure it out? A lot has been written about the Orioles lately, they seem to have developed a pattern of signing questionable Asian prospects, neglecting traditional prospects, relying heavily on Weiters, Markakis, and Jones (who have been very disappointing as a group), and signing overpriced, mediocre veterans with major issues to fill out the roster (case in point: Vladamir Guerrero, Mark Reynolds, Wilson Betemit). This is clearly not the right formula for a small to mid market team. It’s not what successful franchises like the Rays have done and it’s not what soon to be successful franchises like the Royals are doing. It has got to change.

Prediction:

72-90, Last Place, AL East.  They’re really not that bad on offense, but facing the Rays, Yankees, Red Sox and the surprisingly good Blue Jays 76 times puts a damper on their hopes to be a .500 ballclub.

Bold Predictions:

• Adam Jones will be traded by the deadline to the Giants for Erick Surkamp and Kyle Crick (two pitching prospects).
• Brian Matusz has a bounce back year finishing 10-12 with an ERA under 4.5. We all realize that although he’s good, he’s never going be as good a we’d hoped.
• Multi-year bold prediction: Dan Duquette will be the GM of the Orioles for under 3 seasons.

-Max Frankel