Atlanta Braves Season Preview

The Atlanta Braves had a collapse for the ages in September of 2011, but it was overshadowed by the Boston Red Sox and their slightly larger collapse followed by a complete sell-out of their manager and some of the elder pitchers on the team.  However, the Atlanta Braves stood tight, made very few moves, and are ready to go again in 2012.  The question is: does another year older mean another year better? Especially with Chipper Jones on the wrong side of 39.

Projected Lineup:

1. Michael Bourn (CF)
2. Martin Prado (LF)
3. Brian McCann (C)
4. Dan Uggla (2B)
5. Freddie Freeman (1B)
6. Chipper Jones (3B)
7. Jason Heyward (RF)
8. Tyler Pastornicky (SS)

Projected Rotation:

1. Tommy Hanson
2. Jair Jurrjens
3. Brandon Beachy
4. Mike Minor*
5.  Randall Delgado*

*Tim Hudson is expected back about 3-4 weeks after Opening day and will likely replace Delgado in the rotation, but should Minor struggle, he may be sent down instead.

Strengths:

Rotation:  The Braves rotation is very simply the very deepest in the majors.  They have 8 guys who could make a legitimate case for starting games at the major league level once Tim Hudson returns and you factor in baseball’s most highly regarded right handed pitching prospect Julio Teheran and Kris Medlen who was 6-2 (and the Braves were 13-1) in games in which the then 24 year old righty started in 2010 before Tommy John ended his year.  The Braves also recently lost another guy who many thought could start games (prospect Arodys Vizcaino) to Tommy John surgery.  Simply put, this team may not have a dominant ace who will contend for a Cy Young annually, but they do have many good starting pitchers who will give the organization a chance to win every day.

Bullpen:  The Braves bullpen pitched more innings last year than everyone except the Orioles and Pirates (two teams you do not want to be associated with) and still sported the games’ best ERA.  The ‘pen is lead by a trio of dominant relievers Eric O’Flaherty (0.98 ERA), Jonny Venters (1.84 ERA),  and Craig Kimbrel (2.10 ERA).  Venters lead the league in appearances, Kimbrel in games finished and saves and won rookie of the year, while O’Flaherty merely posted the Majors’ lowest ERA.  These three guys will be joined by Medlen, and eventually righty sidearmer Peter Moylan.

Weakenesses:

Power:  Dan Uggla was brought in to provide the team with a necessary power upgrade and he posted 36 homers last year, but the next highest figure was Brain McCann at 24.  For perspective Vernon Wells hit 25.  The Braves think they can expect more power out of Jason Heyward this year and Freddie Freeman figures to build on his strong rookie campaign but as of now, there are some real question marks in terms of power from this lineup.

Shortstop:  The Braves are trying to figure out right now whether they want the guy who hit .220 in Spring Training or the guy who has hit .190 in ST be their shortstop.  Production out of shortstop is sure to be brutal either way, but the Braves and manager Fredi Gonzalez have made it clear that defense is the premium at shortstop as backup Jack Wilson is another known for his glove and not his bat.

Payroll Flexibility:  The Braves are operating at about a $90 milion salary limit right now and a full 1/9th of that is being used to pay Derek Lowe to pitch for Cleveland.  It appears that should the Braves want to make a move at midseason, perhaps for a new right fielder, long term solution in center (Michael Bourn’s gone after this year to the Nats or Phillies), more bullpen pieces, or a shortstop for the stretch run, salary will be the constraining factor.

Storylines:  

PastorSimmons?:  Tyler Pastornicky came into the spring as the primary shortstop with little competition from anyone else in the organization or outside, but Andrelton Simmons has pressured him with dazzling defense to the point where many fans would rather see the exciting Simmons weild his magic glove at short than the .30 points extra of average that Pastornicky would likely contribute.  The decision the Braves come to will likely be Pastornicky, but don’t be surprised if Simmons gets a shot at some point this year.

Heyward:  Jason Heyward was the number one prospect in baseball.  He hit a homerun on his first swing in the Majors.  He finished second in the Rookie of the Year voting and posted an .849 OPS as a 20 year old.  He was a phenom and ready to take over for Chipper Jones for the next 15 years as the face of the Braves.  Then 2011 happened.  The big right fielder battled injuries and saw his average drop 50 points and his OPS slip to .708.  He very simply was not a very productive major leaguer in 2011.  However, baseball players are often told to have a short memory and seeing the calendar turn to 2012 had to be a relief for the 22 year old.  He’s worked hard and seen some decent results in Grapefruit League play (4 homers).  His success is integral to that of the Braves this year.  If he’s good, the Braves are a definite playoff team.  Bad?  81-81 could be a possibility.

Chipper Jones:  You can’t have an Atlanta Braves preview without Chipper Jones.  The Atlanta icon is set to retire at the end of the year and I’m looking forward to the celebrations of Larry throughout the year.  The guy can still hit, but the question is whether he can stay healthy and how the Braves cope with the loss of Chip for a few weeks (he’s already slated to miss the first week of the season with a torn meniscus). I love Chipper, but if he doesn’t play 100 games this year, the Braves will have wished they spent his $14 million in salary elsewhere.

Prediction:  

89-73, 2nd Place, NL East.  The Phillies are still the class of the NL as their three headed monster at the top of their rotation is quite formidable, so I’ll pick the Braves to finish second in the NL East on the strength of their pitching staff.  You have to remember that this is basically the same team that won 89 games a year ago and may have gotten better with the subtraction of Derek Lowe from the rotation.

Bold Predictions:

• Jason Heyward hits .281 with a .917 OPS and 28 homers finishing 11th in the MVP voting
• Brandon Beachy strikes out 184 Phillies
• Tommy Hanson finishes 4th in Cy Young voting
• Dan Uggla has fewer homeruns than Jason Heyward
• Martin Prado hits .318
• Jonny Venters gets the save in the 11th inning of the All-Star game.

-Sean Morash