The Los Angeles Dodgers are 9-1, owners of the best record in baseball, were just sold for $2 billion to a group headed by Magic 
Johnson, have the defending Cy Young winner at age 23 and a center fielder who is quite possibly the best complete player this game has seen in a long, long time. However, that’s not the point of this article. I want to talk about the son of a former major league reliever who has taken the basepaths to be his personal playground. Dee Gordon is the single fastest player in the big leagues right now and he knows it which creates a basestealing monster reminiscent of Rickey Henderson.
Let’s start out with an idea of what constitutes a prodigious amount of steals. I posed this question to a group of my teammates yesterday: What is more impressive, 700 stolen bases or 500 home runs? None of them really knew since 500 home runs has lost its nostalgia thanks to the steroid era and nobody really cares to remember stolen base records since most of them come pre-1900. Still, we looked it up at 10 guys have stolen 700 bases…. ever, headed by Rickey Henderson’s 1406 swipes, which is some 468 steals more than the second place guy. Just for fun and context on how great Rickey was: only 43 players have ever stolen 468 bags. In home run terms, that’d be like some guy having 427 more homers than Barry Bonds. Now that we have our career numbers in context (for no real reason), what does is mean to have 100 steals in a single season? Only four guys since 1900 have stolen 100 bases in a season. Only four more since 1915 have had at least 80. It’s really an incredible thing to steal 100 bags in a season, and it’s even more incredible that we’re talking about Dee Gordon doing it.
Gordon was called up midway through the 2011 season and stole 24 bags in the 56 games(1 steal every 2.3 games) that he played. That’s a fair amount, but certainly nothing to get all too worked up about. Then we look at what Rickey Henderson did his first year in the league because that is who all great basestealers will forever be compared with. Rickey stole 33 bases in 89 games (1 steal every 2.7 games). The next year Rickey stole exactly 100 bases. This year, Dee has stolen 7 bases in 10 games (1 every 1.42 games), good for a pace of 113 stolen bases.
The argument goes that maybe Dee Gordon won’t get on 100 times this year (he’s not a very good hitter and he has a very ugly swing), but come on. He’ll reach base 100 times. Consider that he’s only reached base 12 times this season and already has 7 steals. It’s impressive.
There’s a few more factors in my 100 Steals bold prediction. First, the number three hitter in the Dodgers lineup is Matt Kemp. You have to figure that this scenario will play out more than a few times this year: Dee Gordon gets on (by the grace of God) to lead off the game. He steals second and is moved to third thanks to a Mark Ellis groundout before Matt Kemp takes advantage of the RBI chance and gets Gordon to the plate for an easy 1-0 lead. The Dodgers need Gordon to steal bases in order to score any significant amount of runs. Another factor in my assessment of his stolen base potential is that the NL West is filled with a few less-than-average defensive catchers. Buster Posey is known simply for his bat. Miguel Montero is known more for his bat though it is worth noting he threw out 40% of would-be base stealers. And I had to look up who the Padres catcher is, which is not a good sign.
When all is said and done and the 2012 season is over, do not be surprised if Dee Gordon has 100 steals and is worth the $17 dollars I paid for him in my fantasy baseball draft. Call me a Dee Gordon believer.
-Sean Morash
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