The Real Fantasy Keeper League

It’s 2012 and baseball could not be doing better. We have stories unfolding in Boston that have the most avid of fans shaking their heads, two teams in Los Angeles think they have what it takes to win, a perfect game courtesy of Phil Humber while Bartolo Colon is out in Oakland throwing 38 consecutive strikes.  I’m not one to write about things that will be written about by the National Sports Writers and I’m not one to write about things that other people are better at.  With that in mind, and my 6 game fantasy league lead (and already 24 games up on my blogmate), I came up with the idea of a real Fantasy Keeper Major Leagues.  You know how in an expansion draft, you can only protect so many players… well what if General Managers could only protect three players, as some fantasy leagues do?  What follows is my take on what each of the 30 GM’s would do if they could only protect 3 guys in their system and risk losing the rest (it’s easy for some, difficult for others, and a useless exercise for the Astros).

NL West

Diamondbacks:  The Arizona Diamondbacks obviously elect to keep Justin Upton.  Some might argue that he’s the best guy to keep of any position player not named Matt Kemp.  After that, it’s Ian Kennedy.  The 27 year old appears to finally be entering his own and finished 4th in the Cy Young last year.  The number three guy is a tricky pick and it would not have been had this been posted two weeks ago.  Chris Young appears to be finally having the season that we’ve all been waiting for out of the center fielder.  Daniel Hudson meanwhile seems like a potential number 1 starter.  I’m going Daniel Hudson even though the Chris Young pick would be more fun.

Dodgers:  This is the easiest of all 30 teams.  Matt Kemp. Clayton Kershaw and skip the third pick. No, in all seriousness, we need not forget that Andre Ethier is a legit Major League hitter and he was leading the Triple Crown chase two years ago before he got hurt and appears to finally be healthy again while leading the Dodgers and Majors in RBIs.

Rockies:  The Rockies obviously take Tulo and Car-Go, but their third pick can’t possibly be Michael Cuddyer… right?  Right.  It’s a toss up between Drew Pomeranz and Jamie Moyer for me.  In the end it’s got to be Pomeranz despite the fact that I don’t think he’ll ever be more than a quality number three starter on a mediocre team.

Padres:  The Padres may be quietly the worst team in the Majors with a great quantity of prospects, but nobody that excites anyone.  Corey Luebke is a “must-keep” in that he struck out 154 in 139 innings last year with a 3.29 ERA.  You gotta figure they’d keep Yonder Alonso and hope he turns into a smasher.  And I guess you keep Cameron Maybin and watch as he turns in a Mike Cameron-esque career (only slower, weaker, and less dark).

Giants: Madison Bumgarner. Tim Lincecum despite the health risk because he’s Tim Lincecum! And they’ll also keep Buster Posey over Brandon Belt because of positional value and guaranteed/proven value.

AL West:

Angels:  You start with Albert Pujols, then you go to Jared Weaver.  Then do you go Kendrys Morales? Or C.J. Wilson? Or Ervin Santana? Or Dan Haren? I’m going Mike Trout.  Trout has what it takes to be in the Bigs now and I’m sure he’ll be a 20/40 guy for a long time once the Angels decide to give up on Vernon Wells.  It’s still a tough decision between Trout and Haren for me.

Mariners:  Once you get past King Felix, I’m not sure the Mariners are too happy with what is left.  They’ve got a trio of completely unproven prospects waiting in the minors and have the makings of a good rotation going forward, but given that they are all unproven, you’ve got to think the Mariners will take Dustin Ackley and Jesus Montero to go with Felix Hernandez as their core for the next ten years.

Rangers:  This is a tough one.  Picking any single player from the talented, but flawed Texas team.  Yu Darvish is too unproven.  Josh Hamilton is already 31 and I’m not sure he’s one that will age well.  Ian Kinsler is 29.  Nelson Cruz is 31 and Mike Napoli is 30.  They’re all long term health risks and I’m not sure I want that if I’m picking a team for the next ten years.  Give me Neftali Feliz and his smooth velocity.  Also, throw in Elvis Andrus and everything that he will bring to a team even as he ages.  The last spot is a toss up between (for me) Kinsler, Hamilton, and Derek Holland.  I’m going Kinsler and his 30/30.

A’s:  This one seems easy in that the A’s are already building for 5 years down the road.  Yoenis Cespedes is one of their keepers.  The next two is their pick of two pitching prospects from the group of AJ Cole, Brad Peacock, Sonny Gray, and Jarrod Parker (all of whom figure to be in the Big League mix by season’s end).  I’m going on scouting reports only but, it’s AJ Cole and Brad Peacock for the A’s given that I think both will be long term starters.  If I’m Billy Beane, I’m lobbying the MLB for an extra selection because of how bad Oakland sucks.

NL Central:

Reds:  Joey Votto is an easy selection as he figures to age well and post .400 OBPs for a while.  Mat Latos is a tricky pick as his past arm problems scare me, but given the package the Reds gave up to get the flamethrower, they fully believe in the guy.  Next up, it’s either Jay Bruce or Devin Mesoraco and given Mesoraco’s position (C), the Reds will take him in a second.  An interesting note involves thinking about taking Mr. 105.1 (Aroldis Chapman) and seeing him develop.

Cubs:  The Cubs have a long way to go before they are good.  However, Starlin Castro may be the best player in the bigs over the next ten years. Outside of that… Matt Garza? He’s only 29.  Then Chris Carpenter.  The other Chris Carpenter… Things could take awhile in Chicago.

Brewers:  Ryan Braun. Zack Greinke, who is still just 28, and fits perfectly in Milwaukee.  And then Yovani Gallardo who may be one of the least appreciated 200 strikeout guys in the Bigs.  He’s had 200 K’s in each of the past 3 seasons and is one of just five guys to do that (Verlander, Lincecum, Halladay, and Felix are the other 4).

Cardinals:  Adam Wainwright is 30 and coming off of Tommy John but, I think you have to pick him.  What about David Freese? He’s never hit more than 10 homers in a Major League season. That’s scary.  What about Jon Jay? He’s not that exciting.  Shelby Miller is someone to build around; they pick him.  Matt Holliday’s bat has already begun to slow.  I think the pick is David Freese. Go figure.

Astros: Jordan Lyles. Jose Altuve. And I guess J.A. Happ.

AL Central

Tigers:  Verlander and Miguel Cabrera are no brainers and with the Tigers committed to Prince Fielder for 9 years of their own fruition, one has to think they would take him in this conjured scenario.

Twins: Mauer’s the only obvious pick for the Twinkies.  I think sinking one of these picks into Justin Morneau could be a huge mistake (the first baseman is almost 31 and has major question marks stemming from his concussion).  Francisco Liranio is certainly not without his question marks as well. If this post had been done last year at this time, the answer might be these three easily.  Now? It’s still these three but a bit more hesitantly.

Royals:  Eric Hosmer appears to be the real deal for the Royals and I think there’s an MVP in his future.  Mike Moustakas is another poised for an all-star laden career.  I’m sure that GM Dayton Moore would love to add a pitcher to his nucleus over the next ten, but Bruce Chen and Luke Hochevar are just not the guys to build around. Instead its catcher Salvador Perez who will have his coming out party in 2013, after recovering fully from his knee injury this past spring.

White Sox:  This may be the single worst club’s keepers going forward. Jake Peavy is still only 30.  They keep him and hope he continues his early season 2012 success.  Phil Humber just threw a perfect game but, they had to think about keeping him earlier.  There’s no way they can pick Dayan Vicedo and Alexei Ramirez is 30 and not that good.  They’ve got to pick Paul Konerko for the three years of contribution he still has left.

Indians: I take back what I said about the White Sox.  It’s a tie between them and the Indians for worst.  They’ve got Justin Masterson and Carlos Santana as their battery going forward.  Santana seems like he could be a cog on a championship team in the years to come as I really like his bat, position, and ability to DH on some days.  The last pick? No way Ubaldo Jimenez after his velocity and stuff is so far down form what it once was.  Lonnie Chisenhall is the guy the Indians believe in and I’m sorry to Cleveland for that.

NL East:

Braves:  The Braves have to keep Jason Heyward while Freddie Freeman looks like the real deal all-star first baseman for a few years to come (both are just 22).  After that, McCann is a player that likely won’t age well and Tommy Hanson seems like a start away from an injury. It’s going to be a pitcher though and the Braves have their pick of Beachy/Minor/Teheran/Delgado.  Most baseball execs and fans will pick Teheran over the next 10 years.

Marlins:  Giancarlo Stanton’s recent knee problems and lack of homers to start the year scare nobody.  He’s their first pick.  Then you’ve got Hanley Ramirez and hope that he’s still the MVP type guy that he should be.  Finally, I think the Marlins take Josh Johnson and trust that the fireballer figures it out.

Phillies:  The Phillies are a flawed team at this stage and Chase Utley can’t be counted for anything going forward.  Meanwhile Roy Halladay is already 34 and Cliff Lee 33.  The Phillies take both of them in that as finesse pitchers both figure to age well.  The final pick is Cole Hamels over 31 year old Shane Victorino and 24 year old Vance Worley.

Mets:  I asked a Mets fan what their pick would be and his response was “Wright. Ike. Jesus.” When I asked who Jesus was, as I’m not overly knowledgeable about the Mets farm system, the fan replied “Zombie Jesus.” Yeah, things aren’t looking great as far as the long term guys for the Mets when you want to keep Jesus Christ over 33 year old Johan Santana.  I think the Mets keep Matt Harvey with the knowledge that his power arm will at least be serviceable in the bullpen for a long time to come.

Nationals:  The Nats have it easy with their first two picks: Bryce Harper and Stephen Strasburg. The last pick depends on preference.  Ryan Zimmerman for a “Face of the Franchise” type guy.  Or Jordan Zimmerman if they want to go pitching heavy.  I think they go Jordan Zimmerman.

AL East:

Yankees: Cano is the easy one here. He’s one of the best second basemen in the game and a budding superstar. CC Sabthia is next. The choice was between CC and Ivan Nova but CC has the higher upside and better track record. Last, I’m going with Curtis Granderson over Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira. Tex is fine but he isn’t the dynamic player the Grandyman is and in, in terms of A-Rod, I think that if the Yanks could get out from under his deal while still saving face, they’d do it in a second.

Red Sox: Jacoby Ellsbury is the reigning MVP runner-up and an easy choice if he can stay on the field. Jon Lester is one of the top lefties in the game. And Adrian Gonzalez is possibly the second best first basemen in the game now that Miguel Cabrera is across the diamond.

Rays: This one was tough. Evan Longoria is the clear first choice as he is one of the top young third basemen in baseball. Matt Moore is next despite his inexperience, when you can find Strasburg-like stuff in a lefty you hold on to it. Jeremy Hellickson is my last choice. He’s the reigning Rookie of the Year and I think he will be a solid major league starter.

Orioles: Matt Wieters, Adam Jones, and Nick Markakis. Blah. Wieters is the only one I’d want at all.

Blue Jays: Ricky Romero is a great young lefty, Jose Bautista is one of the game’s most feared hitters and Brett Lawrie is way too over-hyped but he’ll be a real good player.

-Sean Morash