Remarkable as it may seem, as of today, August 7th, every single person on my preseason managerial rankings still has a job. Even Jim Tracy of the Colorado Rockies, who, if the list were redone today would rank dead last, is still writing a lineup everyday. I have no idea when the last time we’ve gone this late into a season without a managerial firing was (I asked Jayson Stark on Twitter, lets see if he gets back to me), but I’d be willing to bet it’s been quite a while.
I think the phenomenon speaks a volumes as to the state of the game this season. Everything has sort of fallen into place. The teams we thought were going to be good have been good, the teams we knew were going to be bad have been bad, and just about any deviation has been a pleasant surprise.
Many thought the A’s a decent candidate for another midseason firing (they had one last year) but they’ve played well above even their own expectations. Bob Melvin’s job couldn’t really be safer.
And while the Astros have been absolutely awful, their failure can hardly be blamed on Brad Mills. The team was borderline AAA to begin with and they have since traded away just about every single decent athlete on the roster. Really, Mills should be commended for that week in April when people thought maybe Houston would exceed expectations.
The Pirates and Orioles, perennial contenders for midseason managerial movement, are both in serious contention this year. Clint Hurdle and Buck Showalter aren’t just being carried by talent, they’re both doing great jobs with their clubs.
When you get down to it, there are five teams that could make a plausible case for firing their managers at this point: the Rockies, the Padres, the Royals, the Red Sox, and the Marlins. Let’s go last to first.
The Marlins story has been well told. New name, new stadium, new uniforms, new players, new manager, new expectations… old results. They’ve failed miserably at the organization’s stated goal of immediately contending for a World Series, and have begun to sell off assets in typical Marlins fashion.
Their manager has failed to deliver on the field and of course there was the minor international incident earlier this season (which we have our own opinions on). However, Ozzie’s job is pretty safe. The Marlins have not abandoned their plan to appeal to the Latin demographic in South Florida and Guillen is still the right man for that job. My opinions on Guillen are fairly well known (I think he’s a blowhard who gets undue credit for one flukey title and I can’t imagine why any player in their right mind would want to go play for him) but the Marlins had their eye on him for a while and even managed to get him to commit to them before last season ended. Unlike most things Marlins, the Guillen era in Miami was always meant to be more than just one year.
The Red Sox have been amazingly disappointing. I won’t recap it all now because you probably know it but if not, you can learn all about it here. But perhaps overshadowing the the sub .500 record have been the constant reports of dissent and unhappiness in the Boston locker room. Despite incessant–if totally boilerplate–public support from ownership, rumors have been gaining traction that poor ol’ Bobby V. might lose his job within the week. Personally, I don’t really think that’s fair. It seemed that some players in Boston (cough, Dustin Pedroia, cough) were going to be out to get whoever replaced their beloved Terry Francona. Plus, it’s not Bobby’s fault that the Sox are on pace to set a record for most DL stints in a single season (I think they’ve already set the record for most money on the DL in a single season). It’s clear that something needs to change in a big way in Boston. It’s not clear if that thing is Bobby V.
The Royals are in the first year of their window to contend. They are not contending. For that reason, you might think Ned Yost would be on the hot seat. But the Royals struggles are more GM Dayton Moore’s fault than Yost’s (the acquisition Jonathan Sanchez, the fact that Jeff Francoeur is still on the roster, and the fact that Wil Myers isn’t). The Royals like Yost and are looking to maintain continuity for their young guns over the next few seasons. If they find themselves in the same spot this time next year though, it might be a different story.
The Padres are very, very bad. However, they knew that going in. Also, they are in the midst of an ownership change and it’s not really clear who would lead the search for a new manager anyway. I get the feeling that Bud Black is still employed mostly out of convenience and the fact that this was always going to be a lost season.
Now for the one guy who really should be canned. The Rockies are terrible. Jim Tracy is generally considered the worst in-game manager in baseball. The four-man rotation thing didn’t work. At. All. You would think that the Rockies front office would have changed managers just to see what would happen. Maybe some new blood would have sparked this team and gotten them going a little bit. At this point though, I guess the rationale is why bother.
It seems that the lack of firings comes back to the general sense of correctness in baseball today. The winners are winning and the losers are losing. The teams that have disappointed are still doing pretty well (Tigers), and the teams that are surprisingly bad have other things going on (Marlins, Red Sox). I don’t doubt that this winter will bring its fair share of managerial maneuvering, but here’s to the thought that, in this tough economy, 30 guys have gotten to keep their jobs all season long.
-Max Frankel
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