The 2012 Rookie of the Year coverage has been all AL, all the time. We get it, Mike Trout mashes. But what about the juniors over on the Senior Circuit? This years’ race is shaping up quite nicely, with a refreshingly close hitter/pitcher battle. Oh, and there’s a race for the hitter’s title you might not be aware of.
If we’re all honest with ourselves, this Year of the Trout, was really supposed to be Year of the Harper. Trout was good, but Harper was Lebron. While not yet on the level of the Chosen 1, Harper has, in fact, been cumulatively solid and periodically splendid as Washington’s two hitter. His line of .259/.330/.449/.778, 17 home runs, 77 runs scored, 47 RBI, and 13 steals is more than respectable, especially at 19. And he’s captured the media spotlight, to be sure. His arm is as advertised, and he is seemingly all over the outfield, and adds, his heads up baller base-running philosophy, to his allure. Plus he’s 19, and abuses the equipment to prove it. But he hasn’t quite matched the consistent offensive presence of Cincinnati’s Todd Frazier.
At 26, the Jersey Boy is on the other side of the conventional ROY timeline. Usually we see guys somewhere between 19 and 26. But Frazier is a workman, with a steady minor league track record (.280/.353/.475/.827 over six seasons). He’s continued right on pace, and the case for him is simple: solid+ offensive consistency. Frazier plays on the best team in baseball, and has been a steady contributor with a .289/.348/.534/.882, 18 home runs, 50 runs scored, and 62 RBI. While he’s a slightly below average fielder, he’s shown resiliency, playing both corners in Joey Votto’s absence. His oWar is 2.3 to Harper’s 1.7.
In the end, Harper probably gets the nod for the two-sided game and wow-factor, but Frazier is having a better moneyball campaign at the plate.
But wait, contrary to recent NL trends, ROY is not just an offensive award; there’s Wade Miley to consider. Miley has had a classy freshman showing. His 2.90 ERA and 1.12 WHIP are both good for fifth in the league, and far surpass any other rookies with comparable innings/appearances. He’s not overpowering, but his K/BB is a neat 117/30 and opponents are hitting just .245 against him. At 14-9 he leads the Arizona staff in wins as well as ERA and WHIP.
As a statistician, I’d give the award to Miley. His 4.0 WAR is better than Harper’s 3.2, but there are other factors to consider as well. Craig Kimbrel won last year, but he’s a closer and offers little in the way of comparison. Beyond Kimbrel though, the last pitcher to win the NL ROY was Dontrelle Willis in 2003. Willis’s line was statistically inferior to Miley’s. The next six winners–the hitters–on the other hand, all won with more impressive numbers than Harper’s (or Fraziers).
As fan of the game, I’d love to see the professionalism of 26 year old Todd Frazier get recognized, and I’m sure that to an extent it will. Alas/thankfully, it’s not baseball true-blue fans or its level-headed statisticians who make these decisions, it’s hot-blooded journalists. One need only consult Deadspin’s Bristolmetrics to see how salient Bam Bam is in the media. As a journalist of sorts, my hunch is that Harper takes it home. While Miley might be the best performing NL rookie, Harper was the best rookie in the larger sense. Plus Harper /Trout will provide a lot more fodder for the presses.
-Ari Glantz
Question of the Day: Can a player win ROY twice? What if he gets in for the last 30 games in September, carries his team to the playoffs with a .380/.420/.610, 7 bombs, 25 RBI September, wins the ROY award–but doesn’t run out his rookie clock and has a Mike Trout season the next year? Is there a rule for that? Leave it in the comments if you know the answer.
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