After a long winter, baseball returns to Philadelphia as the Phillies host the Royals in the team’s home opener…wait a minute. Let’s not get ahead of ourselves sports fans, there’s still basketball left to be played. Following a disappointing loss to Charlotte Wednesday night, the Sixers look to bounce back against an Atlanta team trying to make a final push for home-court advantage in the playoffs. The Hawks currently trail Brooklyn by one and a half games for the fourth seed in the Eastern Conference. The two teams split their earlier two meetings, with Jeff Teague greatly outplaying Jrue Holiday with a 27 point, 11 assist line, in an easy Hawks victory last month.
Do not expect to see many free throws taken in this game as, much like the Sixers, one area where the Hawks struggle is getting to the charity stripe, ranking 5th worst in the league. Atlanta doesn’t foul opponents either though, as opponents get to the line at the third-lowest rate in the NBA, and we know the Sixers have a strict aversion to earning free points. Atlanta also does a poor job on the offensive glass, collecting the 5th-lowest percentage of offensive rebounds. The way the Hawks go about having an above-average offense is by distributing the ball well, with the second-highest assist ratio in the league at 19.0%. When Jeff Teague isn’t running the show from the point (7.1 apg), the Hawks like to funnel the offense through their enigmatic star, Josh Smith, in the post (4.4 apg). The high-low post game chemistry between Smith and fellow big man Al Horford is one of the more impressive sets to watch in the league.
It’s a little easier to collect those assists when you have some shooters on the outside able to knock down shots. The Hawks rank fourth in the NBA in three-point shooting at 37.7%. Kyle Korver is second in the league behind Jose Calderon in 3PT% at 45.7%, while Teague (36.6%) and DeShawn Stevenson (37.7%) also shoot the three at an above-average rate. The Sixers will have to do an excellent job within their defensive rotations to star near those guys on the perimeter and still offer help when Teague and Smith drive into the lane.
Keys to the Game:
- Bounce-back game for Jrue Holiday. After having his worst shooting performance as a professional (and probably as a non-professional as well), Holiday cannot afford to come out tentative in this one. He still needs to be the driving force of the Sixers attack and if he fails to do his job attacking the lane, both to score and find open teammates, Philadelphia will not stand a chance. Of course, if he shoots under 10% again, they’ll likely lose as well.
- Spencer Hawes needs to play Horford at least to a draw. This proposition doesn’t sound as crazy as it might have a month or so ago given Hawes’ excellent level of play lately. Still, Horford is one of the best big men in the league, ranking 31st in PER among all players, and ranking 4th in the league in double-doubles with 41. Josh Smith may get all the attention given his propensity highlight-reel dunks and blocks, but Horford is the foundation of this Hawks’ squad.
Prediction:
Atlanta sports a solid 24-14 record at Philips Arena and still has something left to play for at this point of the season. The Sixers have to be deflated from the loss in Charlotte the other night and it wouldn’t be surprising to see them come out flat. Given Philadelphia’s poor play on the road this season and the amount of talent on the Hawks, Atlanta should win fairly convincingly.
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