A New Take On Prospect Evaluation

I know I know, I’ve been missing from action for the past couple weeks and before that I was not posting so regularly either. But I’m back! Weekly articles from me to you starting up again.

This time around I figure I will discuss a topic that has hurt every team and has turned many fans’ favorite young stars into hated rivals. When do you as an organization give up on prospects?

Young players have gradually become the focus of the baseball world. And with savvy front offices always thinking towards the future, there has been a lot of movement among those players with great potential but no credentials  But what makes a move good decision versus a bad decision, and when should you cut your loses? The obvious and correct answer is, nobody knows. it’s a crapshoot and to go back and look at all the mistakes an organization has made is not only unhelpful but hurtful as well. However, that is a very boring and not fun decision to come to, so, I’l try to go the other way and figure out the answers myself.

Let’s start with the easy situations, if the player is very young, don’t give up on him! Young men usually don’t mature all the way until their mid 20’s. An 18 year old is not someone to give up on because by the time they are 24 they could be immensely stronger and 4 inches taller. On the opposite side, old prospects are one’s you should definitely give up on. A 26 year old ballplayer is not a prospect anymore, if they haven’t done what they were supposed to do by then, they wont do it ever. (Exception Roy Halladay)

So since we know 18-21 year olds are too young to give up on and anything above 26 is too old to expect them to change, what we are really looking at are 22-25 year old prospects. Let us break them down into four different groups: first we have the starting pitchers, second the relief pitchers, third the Pure hitters ( by this I mean players who don’t have a true defensive position but hit well enough to have made it to the high minors), and fourth we have the all around hitter prospects.

Each group has different qualifications for times to quit and times to hold on. The starters are a fickly group, they usually are of two sorts, the pitchers and the throwers. Any baseball player can tell you the difference between a pitcher and a thrower but really the same rules apply to them all. High strikeouts are good, low walks are better, and having multiple out pitches is key. If you have a pitcher in the who throws a fastball at 98 and a 89 mph slider, strikes out a lot of people with both pitches, hold on to him. He can still develop, but if you have a pitcher who throws a 98 mph fastball and 89 mph slider but can only get people out with his fastball, its time to cut him loose. Same goes for pitchers with four pitches and lower fastball speeds, multiple out pitches is a necessity. If they can get someone out with two pitches, hold on tight. Or you can send them to the bullpen.

Relief pitchers are the sort where you don’t need multiple pitches to be successful. A fastball can get a lot of people out, hell Mariano Rivera only ever throws one pitch and he is the greatest closer ever. With that said, low ball counts, that’s what you want. Relievers who walk batters don’t last long. Walks start late game rallies and walks are what dooms pitchers. If you have a relief prospect who has one out pitch and a low walk rate keep him. If you have a reliever that walks a lot of guys and doesn’t have that one pitch, cut him.

Pure hitters are simple, If you have a better guy at first base and DH who is going to be around for a while, trade him, you have no use for him. If he can’t hit a certain type of pitch, say for instance a curveball, get rid of him, and if he has no power to speak of, get rid of him. If he does hit for power, doesn’t have huge holes in his hitting ability, and there is nobody better keep him around until someone else knocks him out of his position, he might be one of your guys. Another important aspect of the pure hitter prospect comes into play if he doesn’t have a high batting average. I know, I know batting average doesn’t truly measure a hitters ability, but let me say this- if someone is hitting .250 and you are questioning whether to keep him around, he better be Adam Dunn and hit 40 home runs every year and walk enough to bring his OBP to the upper 300’s.

The all around hitter is probably the hardest to decipher. They may make spectacular catches in the outfield, and have great speed, but can’t hit a lick. Or they can field a great third base but never are going to hit more than 15 home runs in a season. The trick with these guys, is to look at them very narrow mindedly. If they have one thing that sticks out in a good way, keep them around and see if they figure out the rest, if they have one thing that sticks out like a sore thumb, its probably time to move on. If they neither look good doing something or bad doing something, keep them only if they don’t have someone they are keeping from moving up. Cut them if you have someone better in the wings.

Now, I know its not an obligation but I feel I have to do it anyway- Mariners prospects and whether to keep them or not. I will do this quickly and only say cut or keep. This way all you out there who don’t care about the Mariners at all can just stop reading.

Justin Smoak: Cut

Jesus Montero: Keep

Dustin Ackley: Keep

Kyle Seager: Keep

Hector Noesi: Cut

Brandon Maurer: Keep

Hultzen/Walker/Paxton: Keep

Nick Franklin: Keep

Carlos Peguero: Cut

Alex Liddi: Cut

Carlos Triunfel: Cut

Simple decisions I wish the Mariners would make.

–David Ringold

@dhringold