Paul Goldschmidt, the first basemen for the Arizona Diamondbacks, was never seen as an elite prospect or a guy who could one day become a star. Coming up, Goldschmidt, an 8th round pick in 2009, was projected by people in the know as a platoon player at best, a guy who can play against lefties and come in late in game for defense but not a MLB regular.
Goldschmidt, evidently undeterred by that scouting report, has not only earned the Dbacks everyday job but is absolutely killing it for an overachieving Arizona team. Through 60 games, Paul is hitting .332 with 15 homers, 17 doubles, and a league leading 57 RBIs to go along with 6 stolen bases. Thus far, he’s a power threat and an average threat who has flashed some speed as well. He is the anchor in the middle of the Dbacks lineup.
Goldschmidt is the big league leader in Wins Above Replacement as of today and despite what Harold Reynolds says, WAR is a reasonably good demonstration for how good a player is playing relative to other guys. He’s also 8th in the MLB in OBP, 5th in Slugging, 4th in OPS, 6th in runs scored, 4th in total bases, and 5th in extra base hits.
An MVP guy is someone that changes the fortune of a team over the course of the season. An easy way to tell if this is the case is by looking at league stats. If a player is at or near the top of the league leader board in a variety of (in this case offensive) statistics there’sa good chance that he is an offensive force, that player in the middle of the lineup that pitchers worry about, teams game plan for and other hitters benefit from batting near. Goldschmidt has thus far been that guy.
Last winter, the Dbacks traded Justin Upton to the Braves for Martin Prado and a package of prospects that hasn’t really worked out so far. Any team in baseball is better with Upton than without him so it was reasonable to expect the Dbacks to struggle a little bit this season (JUp’s terrible 2012 not withstanding). Instead, Arizona has improved. This season, through 60 games, the team is 35-26. Last year to this point, they were 30-30. Last year, Paul Goldschmidt hit .286 with 20 bombs in 145 games, it was his first full season in the big leagues. This year he already has 15 bombs, well over half of last year’s RBI total, and a batting average nearly 50 points higher. Goldschmidt’s improvement has correlated with the improvement of his team.
There’s no reason to believe that Paul can’t keep up his current pace. This is just his second full season in the league and it is very possible that he’s starting to figure it out. There is a proven record of some guys blooming late and going on to have very successful careers. Goldschimdt might very well be one of those guys.
If the Dbacks keep up thier current pace and go on to finish, say, second in the NL West and Goldschmidt keeps his numbers in line roughly with where they are now, he has a good chance at the 2013 NL MVP. Keep an eye on him through the final 2/3 of the season as the baseball in the desert is as compelling as it gets.
-Max Frankel
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