The Eagles’ Second Half Woes

At the end of three Eagles’ games this season, a feeling of helplessness came over me.  In these games the Birds had a sizable lead to start the third or fourth quarter, but the offense looked like it was wading through mud to finish the game.  Unable to sustain drives or score points the opposing team would slowly chip away at the lead until the game came down to the last possession.  Thankfully the Eagles didn’t end up losing these games, but this has become a worrying trend.  What the hell was going on at the end of those two Washington games and last week against Arizona?

In order to answer part of this question, let’s break down the Eagles’ drives that ended these games, and look at their results.  For the purposes of this analysis, designed passing plays that turned into runs will go into the pass department along with sacks.  Here are the drives:

Given that Chip Kelly was trying to run out the clock, it is not unexpected that there would be more running plays than passing.  With the exception of the one drive in the Arizona game where we passed much more than we ran, nearly all of the others are decidedly run heavy.  The running ratio is 68% on these drives.  For the entire season, the Eagles run the ball on slightly more than 47% of their offensive plays.  In order to determine the Eagles’ success in passing against running, I started looking at every drive that ended in a touchdown or field goal that the Eagles have had this year.  Of the 49 scoring drives the team has had this year, 38 have come from drives where the team ran at least as many pass plays as run plays.  Simply put, the Eagles score much more effectively, when they pass.  They haven’t been doing that in the second half of games where they have a lead.

The running plays that Chip is calling are diminished in effectiveness because the threat of the pass is nearly nonexistent.  Part of the beauty of the read option is the options that it provides the quarterback.  On most of the plays there are three or four options for the quarterback to choose from: hand-off to the running back, keep it and run, bubble screen to a wide receiver, or a tight end pop pass.  Without the third and fourth options, and Nick Foles’ baby giraffe-like mobility the defense isn’t being caught off guard.

The Eagles can help to alleviate some of these problems by incorporating low-risk passes into their second half game plan.  Adding screen passes and quick slants will help to spread the defense out.  Earlier this season, ESPN wrote an article that detailed how the Eagles struggled to run the ball with Nick Foles at quarterback.  This stemmed from Foles’ inability to make a team pay if he kept it.  Where Vick has the ability to rip off runs of 30 or more yards, Foles’ longest run this year is 16 yards on a scramble.  Without this threat, the read option will struggle.

A second tactic that the Eagles can employ is to mix in more up-tempo drives at the end of games.  Instead of letting the clock run down on every drive to finish a game, the Birds need to do what they do best, and play with pace.  After two drives of trying to run down the clock, have a drive where you push, and catch the defense off guard.  The big advantage of playing the high speed game is that the defense is more winded in the fourth quarter.  Hopefully Chip figures it out before the playoffs because good teams won’t go away so easily.