Avoiding the Red Zone: Week 16

By Dan Urda

Last Week:  1-0

Year to Date: 33-19-3 (63.4%)

Last week was a perfect example of why you don’t play games for the sake of the action.  With only one play, and having it not be until Monday, I was able to kick back, enjoy a few cold ones, and watch in amazement as seemingly every game on the early slate was breathtaking.  From the Philly blizzard to the Patriots comeback to the absolutely enthralling last two minutes of Minnesota/Baltimore, it may have been the best slate of 1pm games since the beginning of Red Zone (maybe ever).  And thats not even mentioning the Steelers almost pulling off a crazy, “Standford band-esque” touchdown that would have given them the win, if not for Antonio Brown barely stepping out of bounds en route to the end zone.

I have said this before, and I will say it again, follow me on Twitter, @DanUrda, for pre-game props, which went a combined 5-0 between Sunday and Monday.  I seem to be somewhat of a savant when it comes to these props, and beginning next season, I will be playing them for a full unit.  I wish I could post a weekly column of them, but unfortunately they are not released until Sunday morning.  Still, those along with Mondays over, which Chicago nearly hit on their own, made it a very profitable weekend.

We enter Week 15 still hitting over 60%, and while I certainly don’t want that to dip in the final weeks, I do like this card a lot.  As always, I will remind you that all plays are posted on Twitter as I submit them, so while lines may have moved by now, they were widely available at the time I posted them there.  Here’s what we have on tap:

Redskins/Falcons over 51

I couldn’t love this play more if it cooked me a steak dinner every night.  I learned my lesson a few weeks ago about two unit plays, but my god, if both teams don’t score 24, with the winner being over 30, I don’t know what league I’ve been watching.

First off, both of these defenses are both lacking in talent, and seem to have quit on the season.  I am actually an RG3 fan, but his clashing with Shanahan had caused such a riff in the organization, that for these three games, it is best for the team that he is not playing. Cousins will run a pro style offense, and be displaying himself to be a starter somewhere next season.  They’re gonna put up points.

The Falcons finally have a healthy Roddy White and Steven Jackson has not been bad lately.  The Skins d hasn’t been able to stop anybody.  They’ll get their share too.  I really don’t see this one not being a semi-shootout.

Kansas City Chiefs -4

Last week I noted that the Chiefs -4 looked like a sucker bet at Washington.  They covered that spread with ease.  Now, this looks like a sucker bet, but I can’t hold back.  Look, being a Philly guy, I have seen plenty of Matt McGloin.  He is not good.  He has worked himself into maybe being a backup quarterback in the NFL, but his somewhat gaudy numbers in his first few games were more of a fluke than anything.  I know that they are home here, but I think their season is more or less over.  Chiefs will get the job done, and while it might not be a complete rout, a touchdown win sounds about right.

Indianapolis Colts -6

I am not a huge trend bettor.  I think most trends are based on a small sample size, and also do not take into account the given situation of a particular game.  However, Andrew Luck is 9-0 against the spread in his career off of a loss.  At home against a team that can best serve itself by losing, I like those odds.  Houston has hung tough in their last few games, but after losing in Jacksonville, the second loss to that team in three weeks, I think they are in “pack it in” mode.  Also, Indy finally benched DHB, who has had about as negative impact on a team as a WR can possibly have.  They seem to be trusting the kids now, and i do think Luck now has enough toys to beat a team thats ready for the season to end.

Dolphins +2.5

Wrong team favored here.  Pats record could not be more misleading, and Gronk’s impact on the team is irreplaceable.  New England struggled at home against the Dolphins earlier in the season, and it won’t be any easier in Miami.  Shhhh, don’t tell anybody, the Dolphins are pretty good!  I like them to win outright, but I’ll take the points.

Teaser, 2 teams/6 points: Seahawks -1/Panthers -5.5

Both teams are coming off a loss playing pretty crappy teams.  The Panthers are at home, and I expect a rout as Geno is going to throw almost as many passes that end up in Carolina arms than his own team’s.  Statement game for them after last weeks loss, which was really understandable, seeing that nobody beats the Saints in New Orleans.

I’ve said all year that the Seahawks are not the same on the road, but they should at least be able to eek out a win against the Giants.  By the way, this losing season for the Giants is not a fluke.  Have you watched them?  They are a bad bad team and unless they do a complete overhaul this offseason, they aren’t getting better any time soon.

That will conclude this week’s wagers.  Five is a good number.  I always hope for 3-2 and would be thrilled with 4-1.  Best of luck, and remember to check back Sunday on Twitter for props.