Lost (perhaps on purpose) in the media storm around the Robinson Cano signing is the fact that the Houston Astros and free agent starting pitcher Scott Feldman came to terms on a 3 year, $30 million agreement today. That is quite literally the worst baseball move that has been made this winter, by far. Let’s look at the myriad reasons why.
We’ll start with the most generic and simple, but least compelling reason: Scott Feldman isn’t worth $30 million. He’s not worth anywhere close to that. In his career, Feldman is 51-56 with a 4.62 ERA and a WHIP closer to 1.4 than 1.3. His career WAR is 5.2 but way more than half of that is due to his fluky-good career year in 2009 (17-8 with a 4.08 ERA). Since 2009, his season WARs have been -1.2, .4, .1, and .8. He hasn’t been worth a single win over the course of a season in this decade!
Last season was his best year ERA wise. He split his time between the Cubs (3.46 ERA over 15 starts) and the Orioles (4.27 over 15 starts). It’s telling that Feldman’s struggles in 2013 came in the AL, especially since he’s now in a division with Albert Pujols, Josh Hamilton, Adrain Beltre, Mike Trout, Prince Fielder, Yoesnis Cespedes, and now Robinson Cano.
Granted, Feldman has pitched in some pretty hitter friendly parks, but he hasn’t really helped himself out. Last season, Feldman set a career high with 132 strikeouts, an unsurprisingly low total given his stuff. According to Fangraphs, Feldman relies overwhelmingly on a sinker and a cutter. The sinker averages a touch over 90 mph and and the cutter rarely gets to 88 mph, so he’s not exactly blowing guys away. In fact, the opponents wRC+(a measure of offense performance relative to league average, after controlling for ballpark effects) against Feldman’s two favorite pitches indicates that hitters are actually slightly better against Feldman’s sinker and cutter than they would be against a generic, replacement level pitch. To put that stat in perspective, and to try to show how truly shocking it is, let me give you the actual numbers. A wRC+ of 100 is average. The lower the number, the better (more unhittable) the pitch. The wRC+’s of Feldman’s sinker and cutter are 103 and 104, respectively. The wRC+ of Clayton Kershaw’s curveball? -44. Negative forty-four!
Basically, Feldman is a league-average-at-best starting pitcher. And that is where my previous argument falls apart. There is value in a league average starting pitcher. I could argue that it’s not anywhere near $10 million a year, but given this market and the recent flood of cash into the MLB, $10 million a season for Scott Feldman isn’t that unreasonable. The big problem is, it is totally outrageous for the Astros to be giving him that money. And there are so many reasons why.
Last season, the Houston Astros bottomed out, again. It was undeniably a good strategy because they’ve given themselves some great draft picks and set themselves up for success in the long haul. but last season was a nearly criminal level of tanking. Their total payroll in 2013 was under $22 million. That means the entire team made less than what Robinson Cano will make in each of the next 10 seasons. Scott Feldman’s $10 mil per season next season is almost half of what the whole roster made last year. Resentment much?
But you could argue, successfully, that dramatically increasing payroll isn’t really that big of a problem for Houston. They play in a big market and their new owner is well funded. They’ve said that the 2014 payroll may be triple the 2013 number. If so, what’s the big deal with giving $10 mil a year to a starter for a little while? Ordinarily, there wouldn’t be. But we’re still talking about Scott Feldman here.
Exactly what value does Scott Feldman bring to Houston in 2014, a team that will be better than last year’s debacle but is still likely to move every available asset for more prospects come July? Feldman’s not worth $30 mil. But, as I said, he does have some value–on a contender! On a team that could make him a pretty decent 4 starter or even a good 5! On a team with 4 veterans needing to plug a whole. On a team like Baltimore needing a steady hand every 5th day. On a team that’s not going to rely on him for too much because, again, his two best pitches are below league average!
What is his role on the Astros? He’s the freaking Ace! He has to be because there isn’t anyone else. Granted, he won’t be the Ace in a couple of seasons, but who else is getting the Opening Day start in Houston? It’s not Phillip Humber, that’s for sure. I cannot for the life of me understand why you would overpay a mediocre at best 4 starter on a team that lacks a 1-3.
“Wait!” you’ll say. “I’ve got it!” you’ll say. “It’s to eat innings!” That must be it. Feldman must be an innings gobbler that the Astros are counting on to get them through the summer without having to rely to heavily on their weak bullpen and AAA caliber starters. He must be the bridge to lead them over these troubled waters into the tranquility of the upcoming Mark Appel era.
Well, good try, I’d say. And then I’d tell you that Scott Feldman has never once thrown 200 innings in a season. Never ever ever. That might be surprising. Feldman is a guy who pitches to contact and it might be reasonable to assume that that kind of pitcher would be able to keep his pitch count down. But, when you allow almost 3 walks/hits per 2 innings it’s awful tough to hang around deep in ball games. If the Astros expect Feldman to be an innings eater, something that the 30 year old has never been before, they should plan on a lot more blowout losses.
Let’s try another strategy. Maybe Houston was looking for a veteran presence to help mentor their preposterously young starting rotation. But even that doesn’t make sense. If that was the case and the Astros were willing to vastly overpay, why not make Tim Hudson the same offer? Why not go after Bronson Arroyo? Why not a guy with a track record of success? Do you really want the future of your franchise mentored by a guy with 1 good season out of 9?
I don’t want to come off as anti-Scott Feldman. I like Scott Feldman. I’m sure he’s a very nice guy and I’m very happy for him that he can now afford every car I’ve ever wanted. I could have very easily written a “Scott Feldman, Great Signing!” post if that’s what happened. In case you missed it: I’m not anti-Feldman. He’s a good pitcher who can be valuable in the right situation. But I cannot for the life of me wrap my head around how he is a good fit in Houston. It just doesn’t make sense. He’s useless on a terrible team now, and mediocre, expensive, and in the way later. Once the rest of the rotation gets good, the Astros still have to run Feldman out there every 5th day because they owe him so much money and can’t trade him (because he’s not good and makes $10M a year.)
I just don’t get it. And maybe Scott doesn’t either, but he’ll take it. He’s been handed the keys to a brand new Porsche and taken out a massive insurance policy on it: he gets the chance to be an Ace, and if he fails, it’s fine because it’s the Astros, and either way he gets to cash monstrous checks into his late 30s. Good for Scott; bad for Astros fans.
-Max Frankel
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