The Time of Possession Myth

By Scott Crabtree

The Eagles currently rank dead last in the NFL in average time of possession (TOP) per game. In fact, the Eagles have possessed the ball an entire minute and sixteen seconds per game less than the 31st-ranked Jaguars, and have the shortest TOP of any team since the Titans in 2010. The following teams all rank below average in TOP per game this season: New England, Denver, Seattle, and Indianapolis. All of these teams are going to the playoffs, and Denver and Seattle are the most-likely Super Bowl matchup.The following graph charts the number of wins a team has with their average time of possession thus far this season.

There is no clear trend in this chart, and using regression analysis on the average TOP by teams this season, the correlation between wins and TOP is 5.9%. And even that is percentage is too high because there is a logical fallacy involved with saying that having the ball for a longer period of time leads to winning football games. In fact the opposite is true, having a lead in games leads to a longer TOP because teams with a lead allow the clock to run for longer before snapping the football.

The Eagles don’t possess the ball as long as other teams because their offense is so efficient. The Eagles lead the league in offensive yards per play, and that includes two games with a healthy dose of Matt Barkley taking snaps. The Birds also rank in first place in big plays. Big plays are categorized as running plays over ten yards and passing plays over 25 yards. As per Sporting Charts, the Eagles rank in first place in big passing plays and tied for first place in long rushing plays. The Eagles rank second in big play efficiency, only 0.01% behind the first place Seahawks. The Eagles get off the field so fast on offense that even with their hectic pace; they rank only 12th in offensive snaps taken this season.

So the next time you hear the commentators spewing garbage about the Eagles problems with time of possession, ignore them. It doesn’t matter. Points matter. Although Bill Russell was talking about basketball, this quote applies to all sports, “What these young bloods have tounderstand is that the game always has been, and always will be, about buckets.” Keep getting them buckets, Chip.