By Sean Kennedy
With the Sixers exceedingly likely to have two picks in the lottery in this summer’s draft, I thought I’d go back and look at recent situations where teams had multiple lottery selections at their disposal. It would stand to reason that with multiple opportunities to nail a pick, teams would at least come out of that draft in better shape than when they started, but is that generally the case? Does having more than one scratch-off ticket mean you’ll hit the jackpot? The following is a list of the last 10 such situations where a team had more than one lottery pick, and using a highly scientific formula (basically my opinion), I determined whether that draft was a success or a failure for that team.
1. Philadelphia (2013) – Success
The Sixers selected Nerlens Noel at #6 and Michael Carter-Williams at #11. Noel missed the entire season due to an ACL injury, which was both beneficial since the franchise wanted to lose game and the only reason the former projected first overall pick slipped to 6th in the first place. Meanwhile, Carter-Williams is the overwhelming favorite to secure Rookie of the Year honors, which would be enough to consider this draft a success in its own right.
2. New Orleans (2012) – Success
The then-Hornets, now-Pelicans drafted Anthony Davis at #1 and Austin Rivers at #10. Even if the Rivers selection was the equivalent of flushing a pick down the toilet, the Brow is going to be a top-5 NBA player for the next decade, making this draft a home run for New Orleans.
3. Portland (2012) – Success
Maybe NBA teams have gotten smarter as we have our third straight overwhelming success story to start this list with the Trailblazers selecting Damian Lillard at #6 and Meyers Leonard at #11. A rising young point guard in the league, Lillard made his first all-star game this season and has already earned a reputation as one of the best performers in the clutch in the NBA. Even if Leonard’s ceiling appears to be decent, back-up big man, Portland would repeat this draft in a heartbeat.
4. Cleveland (2011) – Moderate Success
Before this season, getting an all-star in Kyrie Irving at #1 would have seemed like a no-brainer. Of course, all the turmoil this year has people questioning Irving’s defense, the fact that he still hasn’t led the team to the playoffs in a weak Eastern Conference, and whether he might force his way out of Cleveland. The choice of Tristan Thompson at #4, an average big man that can get you 10 and 10 but do nothing else, doesn’t move the needle at all. I’ll still consider this is a moderate success but that could change depending on what happens with Irving going forward.
5. Utah (2011) – Failure
I can’t really blame the Jazz too much as this was a pretty weak draft class on the whole and neither Enes Kanter at #3 or Alec Burks at #12 are busts. Still, Kanter continues to look lost on the defensive end and has struggled to co-exist in the frontcourt with Derrick Favors. Burks has put up some nice scoring nights on occasion but projects as more of a scoring option off the bench than a starter (I bet Utah cringes at every big-time Klay Thompson shooting performance and wishes he had fallen one more spot). The failure of this draft for Utah failing to product a sure-fire starter is a big reason the team recently fired Ty Corbin and continues to be rebuilding going into this summer’s draft.
6. Minnesota (2009) – Moderate Failure
The only reason I won’t call this an outright failure is how much I love Ricky Rubio’s game. Still, he’s undeniably one of the worst shooters at the guard position in the NBA and the fact that David Kahn took Jonny Flynn at #6 after Rubio at #5 grows even more laughable to this day. Not only did Flynn flame out in the league, but the selection of a second point guard contributed to Rubio taking his time in coming over to the states. Add the fact that Minnesota reserved it’s five-year contract designation for Rubio, thereby alienating Kevin Love, and this draft has to be a failure.
7. Atlanta (2007) – Success
Acie Law at #11 was out of the league in 4 years but Al Horford at #3 is arguably the most underrated big man in the league today. Horford has made the all-star game twice in his seven seasons, with two of those campaigns cut short by torn pectoral muscles, including this season where the Hawks were 16-13 before he went down. With an efficient game that the advanced metrics love, I’ll be excited to see what pairing Horford with Millsap over a full season will look like next year for Atlanta.
8. Portland (2006) – Success
There are two reasons Portland is leading Houston in the first round of the playoffs right now: the 3rd item on this list above in addition to this 2006 draft. The Trailblazers traded away the #4 pick (Tyrus Thomas) and Viktor Khryapa for the #2 pick (LaMarcus Aldridge) and a future 2nd rounder, a deal in hindsight that can only be described as the Bulls being high on crack. Thomas never matched his on-court production to his promising athleticism and is now out of the league, while Aldridge has worked himself into the conversation for best power forward currently in the game. The other part of the lottery saw a swirl of trades eventually netting Portland Brandon Roy at #6 instead of Randy Foye at #7. It’s sad that now you’d probably rather have taken Foye, who’s a productive role player, over Roy, who’s career was cut short by debilitating knee injuries.
9. Charlotte (2005) – Failure
Poor Charlotte fell to #5 in a year when Deron Williams went third and Chris Paul fourth, setting off another in a string of poor drafts by the Bobcats that saw them select Raymond Felton at #5 and Sean May at #13. May only played 4 seasons in the league, while Felton had a few decent years in Charlotte before leaving as a free agent. Felton, of course, went on to have more seasons marred by weights issues and gun controversies than productive NBA seasons. Michael Jordan’s fascination with selecting North Carolina players was never more detrimental than in 2005.
10. Seattle (2003) – Moderate Success
This situation is different than the rest on the list because both picks were late lottery but kudos to Seattle for drafting Nick Collison at #12 and Luke Ridnour at #14. Both players continue to be valuable role players in the league a decade later, with Collison still contributing for the now-Thunder (I’ll give you a moment to curse Clay Bennett under your breath). Obviously, no franchise game-changer here but still a very nice job by the Sonics decision-makers back in 2003.
Final Tally: 7 Successes, 3 Failures
Obviously this is a small sample size, but the majority of teams appear to gain at least one valuable player when they have multiple picks in the lottery. Given the way the 2013 draft turned out for the Sixers, and the subsequent decisions Hinkie has made all having sound reasoning behind them, there’s every reason to believe the 2014 draft for Philadelphia will be looked back upon as a success.
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