The New York Mets and the Boston Red Sox are both despised by Yankee fans everywhere. However, that’s about the only thing they have in common. The Red Sox play in the AL; the Mets in the NL. The Red Sox are red; the Mets are orange. The Red Sox are overloaded with proven offense and desirable position player prospects, but have a starting rotation in dire straits; the Mets have established young pitching out the wazoo and exciting pitching prospects out the whooha, but nothing in the way of bats. The Red So……. hey, wait a minute… Boston needs arms and has young bats and the Mets have the opposite problem? On the surface, they make great potential trade partners. Let’s see what we can do.
The Sox signed both Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez this week, making it a near certainty that they’ll trade some of their surplus position player depth. They now have former All-Stars Allen Craig, Yoenis Cespedes, and Shane Victorino without clear roles in the starting lineup. They also have just one moderately viable starting pitcher in Clay Buchholz, who barely even earns that designation. You don’t allocate $200M to two players unless you’re going for gold, and you don’t go for gold without quality starting pitching. Conclusion: you can bet Boston isn’t finished this offseason.
The Mets have stockpiled young pitching in recent years. They developed All-Star Matt Harvey and 2014 Rookie of the Year Jacob de Grom, and traded for stud Zach Wheeler and uber prospect Noah Syndergaard. They also have Jon Neise, Dillon Gee, Jeremy Hefner, and Bartolo Colon. That’s 8 viable starters for just 5 spots. At the same time, they have no shortstop to speak of, a second basemen that does anything but inspire confidence, and a first basemen in Lucas Duda who has some pop but can definitely be improved upon.
With the addition of Michael Cuddyer this year and Curtis Granderson last year, the corner outfield spots in Queens are pretty well sewn up, but the opportunities for a match between these two teams are nonetheless ample.
Given the presence of Cuddyer and Granderson, let’s assume that Cespedes, a power hitter with a fairly low OBP and a cannon for an arm, isn’t really on the Mets radar. Allen Craig, however, and one or more of Boston’s good prospects, should be.
Craig had a terrible 2014 but received MVP votes in both 2012 and 2013, hitting over .300 in both seasons. He’s a fine first basemen with below average power for the position, but his hit tool is stellar and he can be a passable right fielder if need be. If he’s back to his old ways, he’s a definite improvement over Duda at first and can spell Granderson against lefties (if Cuddyer shifts to left those days). He’d provide a solid bat in the middle of the Mets’ order, but Craig straight up for a top starter from New York doesn’t work, not with his value depreciated in light of his down year. In order to get something legitimate, the Red Sox would have to include something legitimate–and that’s where it gets rather interesting.
Boston has a serious stockpile of young position players, a few of whom could conceivably be pieces in a trade for a frontline pitcher. Jackie Bradely Jr. and Will Middlebrooks are currently sell-low currency and Boston will hang on to them until they can accumulate a little more value. Blake Swihart is a premier catching prospect, but wouldn’t appeal to the Mets given their recent acquisition of Travis d’Anaurd. More appealing however are Mookie Betts, Xander Boegarts. Both would appeal to anyone and could generate a king’s ransom in return.
Betts is the more likely player to be traded. His versatility is valuable, and for the Mets he’d likely play shortstop and hit near the top of the lineup. Boston has other options to complete their outfield (where they have Betts now) and would be willing to package him with Craig for the right pitcher. Betts and Craig could be enough to get Jon Neise, the Mets best veteran pitcher, and another of their second tier starters. While that might not seem like a great haul for a prospect of Betts’ stature, the Red Sox aren’t just looking for one MLB ready starter, they need two or three, at minimum. Neise and Hefner or Gee or even Colon, plus a mid tier prospect, could be a pretty big step towards realistic contention.
If, however, Boston was willing to trade Boegarts, the game changes completely. Even without Craig, Boegarts for Wheeler and another top minor league pitcher would maybe be a fair deal. Wheeler is a top flight starter and the Mets would be loath to trade him under normal circumstances. But Boegarts is not a normal circumstance. Xander is poised to become one of the game’s best shortstops for the next decade; the kind of player we could very well make fun of Boston for trading in 3 or 4 seasons. Boegarts to the Mets would take some serious talent going back the other way and the Mets might not want to break up their young pitching core as much as would be necessary.
That said, the Mets need offense badly, especially at shortstop. The Rueben Tejada experiment is mercifully over but Wilmer Flores is not any better. If the Mets plan on contending, and they do, they need to do much much better than that.
Betts would be a help for New York, but likely not the game-changer that Boegarts would be. And Craig is a solid, undervalued piece who could help. Given Boston’s dire pitching need and position player surplus, these two team would be wise to start racking up the cell phone minutes.
-Max Frankel
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