According to the projections available through Fangraphs, the Seattle Mariners will be the second best team in baseball in 2015. Sure, this is a franchise that once won 116 games and is at least capable of being great, but is this compilation of talent really ready to go from missing the playoffs to dominating the AL? I’m not so sure.
Seattle’s big offseason addition was OF/DH Nelson Cruz, who, after a 40 homerun season, seems like the perfect fit in the great Northwest. Not only will his power convince a few Seattle natives to buy MLB tickets, he’s been brought in specifically to improve on the Mariner’s biggest weakness from 2014. Last year, Mariners batters managed a .287 wOBA when in the box against lefties — good for 29th in the Majors, just barely ahead of the Padres offense that ranked among the worst ever. They’ve also added Justin Ruggiano to help split time in the outfield and Ruggiano’s one skill seems to be hitting lefties. His .836 career OPS against lefties is 200 points better than the Mariners faired against southpaws last year.
The lineup still doesn’t look complete:
- Austin Jackson CF
- Dustin Ackley LF
- Robinson Cano 2B
- Nelson Cruz DH
- Kyle Seager 3B
- Logan Morrison 1B
- Chris Taylor SS
- Mike Zunino C
- Justin Ruggiano/James Jones RF
To this point, the Mariners have addressed the middle of the order but haven’t dealt with the top. Last season, Robinson Cano posted his lowest RBI total since 2008 in part because he was batting behind Austin Jackson and Dustin Ackley at the top of the order. Ackley’s .293 OBP from last year actually dropped to .277 when he hit in the 2-hole and Austin Jackson isn’t as bad as he was last year, but a repeat of that .229/.267/.260 line from his time in Seattle will not make Mariners fans very happy. The plan could be to let Chris Taylor hit at the top, but that only solves half of the problem.
The above paragraph was basically a circuitous way of saying that Dustin Ackley is bad. He’s best served in a utility role at this point and the Mariners would be wise to add another outfielder who can hit in the 2-hole. The Padres have a glut of outfielders, some of which can hit, and appear to be good partners with the Mariners in a possible trade. Will Venable is interesting, but so are Seth Smith, Carlos Quinton, and Wil Myers.
The Mariners are going to be good, however, because of their pitching. Felix Hernandez is Felix Hernandez. Hisashi Iwakuma is a free agent at season’s end, but is still very good. James Paxton made 13 starts last year and nearly had an ERA below 3. Taijuan Walker, ready to contribute, is among the best pitching prospects in the game. They also added JA Happ for some reason. Their bullpen is good, with Fernando Rodney and Danny Farquhar shutting down the end of games.
Still, is this a team that can compete with baseball’s elite? Are they really second best, behind only the Dodgers? Are they really a better, more complete team than the Nationals, Cardinals, Red Sox or Tigers?
The current Fangraphs projection seem to marginalize all of the question marks that currently surround the Mariners. It assumes Austin Jackson will return to some form of the Austin Jackson that we’ve grown to know. And that Mike Zunino turns into a 3 WAR player by being serviceable with the bat, a very ambitious assumption given Zunino’s .199 average last year.
It also assumes no injuries to the major cogs of the lineup. Any team would be in trouble if Robinson Cano or Felix Hernandez missed significant time with injury, but this is a team that appears to be lacking in the depth department. The pitching will be fine–JA Happ was brought in to handle that depth problem. But I’m concerned about the club relying too heavily on Nelson Cruz repeating his 2014 performance. Without Cruz in the middle, this is essentially the same lineup that scored the fourth fewest runs in the AL last year!
The Mariners do have a few minor leaguers who could be willing and able to produce in the event that an injury occurs, lead by corner infielder DJ Peterson. Peterson could prove valuable if Logan Morrison struggles, as he has been wont to do throughout his career, or if Nelson Cruz returns to his injury-filled ways, or even if Kyle Seager takes about 15 steps back.
Undoubtedly ready to compete in 2015, the Mariners have improved on the squad that won 87 games last year, but projecting them to make up the 11 games that they finished back of the Angels seems too ambitious. It’s still a squad that has Dustin Ackley in left field and JA Happ as the number four starter. Adding another outfielder could help ticket sales for Mariners games on days when Felix isn’t pitching. Then, more fans would be in need of this link: find here sold out Seattle Mariners tickets.
Second best team in baseball? Not yet. Among the top two teams in the AL West? Definitely.
-Sean Morash
Stat of the Day: The Braves rotation is currently projected to be the worst in baseball.
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