Recent History of 3rd Overall Picks

By Sean Kennedy (@PhillyFastBreak)

Unless you live under a rock, you already know that, barring some additional Sam Hinkie wheeling and dealing, the Sixers will be drafting a player with the 3rd overall pick in next month’s draft. The general consensus appears to be that this is perfectly fine because the Sixers were in need of a point guard and the best two available are still expected to be on the board.

However, as Hotels.com’s Captain Obvious might say, players taken 3rd are generally expected to be worse than the players taken 1st or 2nd. Otherwise, they would go 1st or 2nd. So what caliber of player is still hanging around at #3? Let’s take a look at recent history to get a better idea. Listed below are the last 10 3rd overall picks in the draft.

2013: Otto Porter

2012: Bradley Beal

2011: Enes Kanter

2010: Derrick Favors

2009: James Harden

2008: O.J. Mayo

2007: Al Horford

2006: Adam Morrison

2005: Deron Williams

2004: Ben Gordon

If I went just one year further, we would see Carmelo Anthony went third overall, while less recent history shows such Hall-of-Famers as Kevin McHale, Dominique Wilkins, and Michael Jordan all went in that draft slot. So you can basically make any case you want for the potential of a third overall pick when it includes the GOAT, but for these purposes, let’s just focus on the last 10 years.

Busts (Morrison)

The first-ever selection by new Bobcats executive Michael Jordan, Morrison had a subpar, if not altogether disastrous rookie season in Charlotte, averaging 11.8 ppg, but shooting just 37.6% from the field. Sadly, we’ll never really know if one of the greatest college scorers in recent memory could have improved on that rookie campaign, as Morrison tore his ACL in a preseason game the following fall, missing the entire 2007-08 season. Morrison would be traded to the Lakers midway through the next season and receive just limited playing time over the next two years (although he did collect 2 rings in the process). The former Gonzaga star was out of the NBA after the 2009-10 season.

Too Soon to Tell (Porter)

Porter did next to nothing in the first two NBA seasons before breaking out in these past playoffs when Randy Wittman finally made the decision to play lineups featuring Porter at the three and Paul Pierce at the four. Porter flashed the potential to be one of those ‘3-and-D’ types on the wings that are all the rage in NBA circles these days. Whether it was just a flash in the pan over a couple weeks remains to be seen, but Wizards fans have to be encouraged.

Borderline Starters (Kanter, Mayo)

Enes Kanter will likely get paid a lot of money this offseason, whether by the Thunder or some other suitor, because somebody is bound to see his 18.7 ppg and 11.0 rpg during his time in Oklahoma City and think he’s a star. However, he’s an absolute sieve on the defensive end, as all the defensive analytics will attest, and it’s no secret why the Jazz had one of the best defenses in the league after jettisoning him. Kanter would be a fine option for a team as a scoring option off the bench, but he’s going to get paid like an above-average starter and I think some team will come away greatly disappointed.

Mayo has had an odd career, actually averaging his highest ppg mark (18.5) during his rookie season in Memphis. It looked like it would be a long-term fixture at shooting guard for the Grizzlies, having another strong sophomore campaign, but the relationship soured over the years and Memphis chose not to re-sign him after his rookie deal. After Mayo had a career-best shooting year (40.7% from three) during one season in Dallas, he signed a relatively big free agent deal with the Bucks. His first year in Milwaukee looked like the beer and brats had gotten to him, as he was horribly out of shape, but he rebounded this past year with a productive season under new coach Jason Kidd. It looks like the rest of Mayo’s career will be as a productive player off the bench.

Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde Careers (Gordon, Williams)

Ben Gordon is the only player to ever win the 6th man of the year award as a rookie, and went on to have 4 more very good seasons in Chicago, hovering around 20 ppg while shooting better than 40% from three each season. His most memorable performance was probably his 42 points in a 2009 playoff game against the Celtics, really one of the most randomly exciting series of all-time. Gordon then signed a huge free agent deal with Detroit, and fizzled out in a big way as a Piston. He’s bounced around the league a bit since then, remembered more as a cautionary tale of how not to waste cap space just because you have it.

Whatever happened with Deron Williams is one of the great NBA mysteries of the past decade. He was once a perennial All-Star neck-and-neck with Chris Paul for the best point guard in the world belt. Lately in Brooklyn, he’s been a punch line who was benched for Jarrett Jack for a portion of the season, shooting under 40% from the field for the first time in his career. Williams is getting paid like a superstar and producing like a below average player, a perfect emblem for the dysfunction with the Brooklyn franchise.

Serviceable Starter Types (Favors, Beal)

Favors gets lost a bit because the Jazz haven’t been good in a tough Western Conference in recent years, but that may change next year with a full year of the Hayward-Favors-Gobert frontcourt. Ironically traded away by the Nets in his rookie year as part of the package for another player on this list, Deron Williams, Favors finally got the full-time starting gig two seasons ago and has done nothing to disappoint. This past season, he averaged 16.0 ppg (on 52.5% shooting), 8.2 rpg, and 1.7 bpg. Utah is a breakout team to watch next season and Favors is a big reason why.

Beal certainly has the potential to jump past this level as he only just finished his third NBA season. The former Florida Gator looks to have a floor as a great outside shooter (40% from three in his career), but whether he can improve his decision-making and ball handling as a secondary option alongside John Wall will determine if he makes the leap to an All-Star level.

Perennial All-Stars (Harden, Horford)

The Beard was the MVP runner-up this past season and will in all likelihood be an all-star for many years to come. Harden features a game perfectly molded to the modern NBA, where shots at the rim, threes, and free throws are seen as the most valuable shots. The only reason Harden is doing this in Houston, and not as part of an Oklahoma City dynasty, is due to the frugal nature of Thunder management.

Horford may not be as well known to the casual basketball fan, but anyone who follows the league closely knows him to be one of the best, most consistent big men in the NBA. There’s nothing flashy about his game, but Horford does nearly everything on the court at the high level, whether it’s defending the rim or the pick-and-roll, scoring out of the post or the mid-range jumper, or finding open teammates out of the high post while taking care of the basketball. He’s also reputably a great locker room guy and the leader of this year’s #1 seed Hawks squad.

What does it mean?

It would seem that at the very least, the Sixers are going to get a serviceable starter with the #3 pick. Even the one guy who was a bust, Morrison, you could make the argument would have gone on to have a decent career if not for the ACL injury. More importantly, even at #3, the potential to grab a star is still there, as the examples of Harden and Horford both show. All in all, I’ve left this exercise more encouraged about what the future may hold for the Sixers following Tuesday night’s lottery.