Ball Security in an Uncertain World

By Sean Kennedy (@PhillyFastBreak)

I hope everyone had a fun, safe Memorial Day Weekend, but now we’re back with just under a month until the NBA draft. So while we’re not quite approaching LeBron-in-the-open court levels of steam toward it, Adam Silver will be reading off names before you can say Karl-Anthony Towns. Today, let’s look at an area that’s been troublesome for the Sixers the past two seasons: ball security.

Each of the last two years, the Sixers have been dead-last in the NBA in turnover percentage: 17.9% this past season and 16.4% in 2013-14. Now, there were plenty of factors at play for such a weakness to emerge: trying to play as fast as possible two seasons ago, rapidly cycling guys through the roster and hurting continuity, just plain having guys around who might not be NBA-caliber players, to name a few. However, a big part of a team taking care of the basketball stems from its point guard play, and a big part of the Sixers’ point guard play over the last two seasons was Michael Carter-Williams.

MCW has struggled with turnovers ever since he entered the league. His 14.5 TOV% last year was the 4th-worst mark in the league among players who played at least 25 minutes per game. That number improved slightly following his trade to Milwaukee, going from 14.9% to 13.7%, but that’s still a very poor rate and shows that despite the limitations of his teammates in Philadelphia, taking care of the ball is nonetheless a weak part of Carter-Williams’ game. For comparison’s sake, Ish Smith had just a 12.2% mark in Philadelphia, playing with largely the same crew MCW had earlier in the season.

Obviously, Carter-Williams is a part of the Sixers’ past and we’re now more focused on the future. So with Philadelphia slated to have the 3rd overall pick next month, and the general consensus being they’ll select their next franchise point guard, is there any reason to think their next floor general will share MCW’s struggles in that area of the game? Let’s take a look at the stats coming into the draft for the top 2 PG prospects, as well as the Sixers’ erstwhile leader.

Below you’ll see the stats from Russell during his freshman year at Ohio State, Mudiay during his stint in China, and Carter-Williams during his sophomore year at Syracuse.

Of course, there are concerns about small sample size and making an apples-to-apples comparison for guys who played different competition, but we still can draw some general conclusions. While Carter-Williams always displayed elite passing abilities in terms of finding guys for easy buckets, his enormous turnover rate combined with a low usage rate portended his future difficulties in taking care of the basketball at the pro level. Neither Russell or Mudiay project to have a problem with that area of the game.

In comparing the two top point guard prospects, they’re roughly similar in these areas and you’re likely just splitting hairs when you consider the statistics in terms of their sample size. Russell had a slightly lower turnover percentage while having the ball in his hands a bit more, but Mudiay had a tad better assist percentage.

The general conclusion to reach is the Sixers should feel comfortable that with either of these players at the helm, their difficulties in the turnover department should be greatly mitigated from the MCW days, something that will be good for the long-term health of fans across Sixers nation. Now, the team only needs to evaluate the umpteen other facets of both these prospects and the others on the board before making the decision on draft day.