Trading Out of the Top 3 on Draft Day

By Sean Kennedy (@PhillyFastBreak)

With the conference finals currently nothing more a dull stepping stone on the way to the inevitable Warriors-Cavaliers matchup, more talk than usual seems to be focused on next month’s NBA draft. In Sixers circles, some speculation exists that if the team feels its top target is someone who is likely to be available a couple of picks later, Mario Hezonja for example, Sam Hinkie might opt to trade down and pick up additional assets in the process. After all, everyone knows Hinkie loves assets as much as Tyrone Biggums loves a certain white powder.

However, is this really a realistic scenario? Granted, Hinkie is more of an outside-the-box thinker than your typical NBA executive, but in today’s climate, high lottery picks just do not change hands very often. The last time a player was selected in the top 3 by a team that didn’t originally own that draft right was all the way back in 2011. Then, Enes Kanter was taken third by the Jazz as part of the Deron Williams blockbuster package, but the Nets pick had jumped up a few spots much to the chagrin of those executives in New Jersey. More crucially was Kyrie Irving going to Cleveland at #1, a pick sent from the Clippers as part of the Baron Davis salary dump. That pick defying the odds to jump from the back end of the lottery to first overall is a big reason why we have to deal with so many complicated protections on draft picks in trades today.

Still, those situations weren’t trade-downs like people are discussing for the Sixers. For something like that, you have to travel back 7 years to 2008. The mid-2000s saw that sort of swap actually happen fairly often. Let’s examine how it worked out each time for the team trading down.

2008: Picking third, Minnesota sent that selection, O. J. Mayo, along with Marko Jarić, Antoine Walker, and Greg Buckner, to Memphis in exchange for 5th pick Kevin Love, along with Mike Miller, Brian Cardinal, and Jason Collins. Although the Timberwolves haven’t been to the playoffs since, it certainly wasn’t Love’s fault, and they eventually swapped him for the current Rookie of the Year, Andrew Wiggins. Verdict: Trade down was good.

2006: Slotted second, Chicago sent the draft rights to LaMarcus Aldridge and a 2007 second-round draft pick to Portland in exchange for the draft rights to 4th pick Tyrus Thomas and Viktor Khryapa. Aldridge is a perennial All-Star, while Thomas was a colossal bust. Verdict: Trade down was bad. Very, very bad.

2005: Hours before the start of the draft, Portland traded the 3rd pick to Utah for the 6th pick, the 27th pick and a 2006 first-round draft pick. Utah drafted Deron Williams third, while Portland used the 6th and the 27th pick to draft Martell Webster and Linas Kleiza, and that 2006 first-rounder became Joel Freeland at 30th overall. While Deron Williams never helped Jazz become a true contender, the return package for him planted the seeds for what should be an up-and-coming Utah squad next season. Verdict: Trade down was bad. But it might have helped the Trailblazers see the value in trading up for Aldridge the next year.

2004: The Clippers traded No. 2 pick Emeka Okafor to the Bobcats for No. 4 pick Shaun Livingston and No. 33 pick Lionel Chalmers. Okafor had some solid seasons in Charlotte before back injuries derailed his career, while Livingston suffered perhaps the most gruesome knee injury in NBA history before making his way back into the league as a solid role player years later. Verdict: Trade down was bad. Mostly, this whole situation is just really sad though.

With the Kevin Love trade as the lone exception, recent history has seen trading down from a top-3 pick to be a bad idea. Likely, those outcomes have led to traditionally risk-averse executives being even more conservative, and passing on making such moves in the past handful of drafts. While Hinkie has certainly surprised us on multiple occasions before, I think it much more likely that he stands pat at #3 and takes whoever his guy may be there.